Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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511 FXUS63 KJKL 220055 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 855 PM EDT Mon May 21 2018 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 855 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2018 Only a few cluster of showers across the area, as multiple traversing outflow boundaries have scoured out the majority of the available CAPE across most of eastern Kentucky. Will hang onto thunder for a few more hours, before a lull takes place through the first half of the overnight. Upstream, more organized convection may lend some influence towards dawn, and will maintain some scattered showers working back into the area from the northwest. Will reevaluate this along with the lows and fog with the next update. For now, mainly freshened up the temperature, sky, and POPs based on the latest trends in observations, satellite, and radar. Updates have been sent.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 418 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2018 Showers and thunderstorms will continue to drift north this afternoon into early this evening, producing brief periods of locally heavy rainfall as they initially develop and merge with additional cells in a summertime-type environment. Small hail will be possible with initial updraft surges, while downburst wind gusts to 40-50 mph may also be possible as these collapse. Have not seen as high of coverage farther west into the Bluegrass region at this time, farther displaced from a weak surface kink and any topographic influence. Will see preexisting storms off to the south approach and interact with cold pools/outflow boundaries to provide additional lift here, with instability and storm coverage dissipating near and after sunset. A weakening upper trough approaching the Great Lakes and accompanying surface low just off to its southeast will continue to lift northeast, keeping eastern Kentucky firmly in the warm sector. May see some shower activity linger into tonight across the Bluegrass region nearer to a frontal boundary moving into the Ohio Valley and associated remnant outflow boundaries from earlier convection. Most locales should remain dry as earlier precipitation leads to fog development even outside of valleys through the night into Tuesday morning. Broad/weak troughing overhead Tuesday along with a continued sultry airmass will promote quickly developing showers/storms during the morning. These will increase in coverage with diabatic heating through the afternoon as a cool front makes closer approach toward the lower Ohio Valley. While deep layer shear will be a tad stronger compared to today, this combined with weaker instability does not suggest much if any uptick in storm severity. Cell mergers and initial pulses may briefly produce heavy rain and small hail again, along with gusty downburst winds to perhaps 40 mph. Rain chances will continue Tuesday evening and night as the front enters Kentucky and provides greater low level forcing. Fog will once again be in play given the recently wet ground, at least during the early overnight prior to arrival of somewhat drier air. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 300 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2018 The extended will feature alternating periods of wet and dry weather across eastern Kentucky. The period should begin with rain exiting the area on Wednesday, as a trough of low pressure aloft pushes off to the east of the area. Wednesday night through Thursday night should be dry, as a ridge of high pressure sets up across the region. Another area of low pressure is then forecast to push through over the weekend, bringing more rain chances to the area from Friday afternoon through the end of the upcoming weekend. The best chance for thunderstorms will be during the afternoon and evening hours. Temperatures will continue to run above normal, with daily highs in the low to mid 80s and nightly lows in the low to mid 60s expected for most locations. Valley fog will also be possible each day during the late night and early morning hours. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) ISSUED AT 855 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2018 Will hold onto VFR conditions through 06z, as convection wanes, and mainly a mid-level debris deck is left behind. Some clearing will work in from the southwest overnight, with some patchy fog expected. Have gone MVFR at most TAF sites, with IFR or worse expected at SJS, as they saw more significant rainfall earlier. Have kept it VFR at JKL, with a light wind remaining on the ridges. Another round of scattered convection will threaten once again on Tuesday. Winds will remain light through early Tuesday morning, before increasing to around 5 kts out of the southwest.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...GUSEMAN LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

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