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000
FXUS63 KJKL 240846
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
446 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

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- Light rain showers will come to an end from northwest to
  southeast early today.

- Below normal temperatures return by Thursday morning, bringing
  the risk for some patchy frost in our more sheltered valleys.

- Temperatures then trend well above normal for the weekend into
  early next week.
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&&

.SHORT TERM...
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(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 446 AM EDT WED APR 24 2024

The latest upper level map shows seasonably deep low pressure
rotating over Quebec, with troughing extending south through the
Ohio Valley. Further west, a ridge axis aligns along the
Continental Divide, with northwest flow extending from central
Canada through the northern/central Plains as well as the Midwest.
At the surface, low pressure is seen across the eastern Great
Lakes, with a diffuse cold front draped through the central
Appalachians and then across southern Kentucky. A secondary
boundary is positioned over the Great Lakes and portions of the
Midwest, while high pressure is centered over northern Ontario.
Light rain showers have been ongoing across eastern Kentucky
overnight, with rainfall amounts remaining around several
hundredths of an inch or less thus far. Temperatures have cooled
off to the low and mid 50s north, where better saturation has
occurred, while lower 60s are still commonplace in the south,
where dew point depressions are still between 15 and 20 degrees.

The models are in good agreement through the short term period.
A trough axis will shift towards the Eastern Seaboard through this
evening, with a ridge axis moving over the Plains by late tonight
and then encroaches on the Mississippi Valley by late Thursday.
At the surface, high pressure will spread into the Great Lakes and
Ohio Valley through tonight, before drifting more over New
England by Thursday. Cooler northwest to northeast flow will
result across the Commonwealth today through Thursday, fostering
some below normal temperatures. The light rain showers will be
moving out from northwest to southeast through early today, as the
trough and surface cold front exit. Clouds will break up in the
afternoon, with drier air advecting in on northwest winds. Highs
will range from the mid 60s north of the Mountain Parkway, to
around 70 for our more southern locations. Did stay just a touch
below the blended guidance, given the cool air advection, and the
likelihood of some clouds in the morning.

Mostly clear skies and rising heights should promote decent
radiational cooling tonight, although with the surface high
center displaced well to our north, light north to northeast
winds of around 5 mph will likely remain engaged. Dew points will
also be above freezing, so have included some patchy river valley
fog, with perhaps some patchy frost in the most sheltered interior
valleys across our north. Lows will range from the mid 30s for
the colder spots, to the upper 30s and lower 40s elsewhere. Mostly
sunny skies and still building 500 mb heights, should allow for
high temperatures just a touch warmer compared to today.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 304 AM EDT WED APR 24 2024

The period begins Thursday night with upper ridging over the
Mississippi River Valley between a downstream trough just off the
East Coast and an upstream trough ejecting out of New Mexico and
the Central Rockies. Surface high pressure will reside over much
of the northeastern part of the US and bring eastern Kentucky
light east to southeast near-surface flow initially. An
approaching warm front will bring increasing clouds from the
southwest Friday morning, but will likely leave much of the
northeastern half of the forecast area under mostly clear skies
Friday morning. Given surface high pressure in place nearby,
light winds, and clear skies, chilly conditions are possible in
sheltered valleys east of Interstate 75, with some COOP MOS sites
such as Sandy Hook and West Liberty possibly reaching as low as 32
or 33 degrees, which may result in areas of frost. Otherwise,
lows outside of the sheltered valleys will likely remain in the
40s.

The aforementioned warm front moves northeast into the base of the
upper ridge over eastern Kentucky Friday, bringing increased yet
light south to southeast flow. PoPs and QPF continue to trend lower
for Friday as the lower and mid-levels of the atmosphere will be
quite dry initially and will require extensive moisture transport
into the area. Nevertheless, chance (generally 30-35) PoPs are
carried primarily for the afternoon hours Friday before rapidly
tailing off into the evening as the warm front moves north of the
area.

Models, and thus the NBM, continue their drying trend from Friday
night through the weekend as upper ridging over the Southeast US
coastline trends stronger with time and attempts to keep the main
jet stream confined to the Mississippi River Valley and Lower
Ohio Valley and points north and west. This resulting trend for
eastern Kentucky plays out with increased surface southerly winds
through the period and thus downstream warming and drying over
eastern Kentucky from the nearby mountain ranges to the south and
southeast. PoPs remain below 10 percent from mid-evening Friday now
all the way into late Sunday night or early Monday morning before
an upstream wave is able to weaken the ridge enough to push a
weakening cold front across the area by Tuesday. Thus, it appears
more and more likely the most unsettled part of the long term
will come Monday into Tuesday with high chance PoPs (40-50 PoPs).

After chilly temperatures in the eastern sheltered valleys Friday
morning, expect temperatures to steadily trend upwards into early
next before shower and thunderstorm chances return Monday into
Tuesday. Highs in the 70s Friday will warm into the 80s Saturday
through Monday, and possibly beyond as the cold front washes out
over the area Tuesday. Lows will also trend warmer with upper 50s
and 60s from Friday night onward.
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&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT WED APR 24 2024

A passing cold front will bring light rain and lowering ceilings
to the area overnight. Most locations should remain VFR, generally
between 3-6k feet agl, besides some temporary MVFR clouds
possible at KJKL around dawn for a few hours. The light
precipitation will come to an end from northwest to southeast
between 08 and 12z, with ceilings scattering out through the
morning. Skies will turn clear by late this afternoon and evening.
Southwest winds of 5 to 8 kts will become westerly behind the
frontal passage, before gradually veering to the northwest through
the day, and eventually north northeast towards the end of the
period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN