Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 242004 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 404 PM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018 .SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 404 PM EDT TUE APR 24 2018 Forecast is fairly straight forward this afternoon. Storm system responsible for all the the rain of recent is centered over central Kentucky and is moving slowly eastward. Beginning to see activity intensifying to our south and east as well. Thus can not rule out some thunder across portions of the area through early evening, pretty much in line with the inherited forecast. Winds will shift out of the northwest behind the exiting system overnight. Cooler air filtering into the region during the short term will keep temperatures below normal levels, but drier weather will begin to work its way into the area. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 342 PM EDT TUE APR 24 2018 A shortwave will pass across Tennessee on Thursday and models starting to come into better alignment on this system. This means precipitation chances are increasing for the southern and southeast Kentucky areas as the system will be close enough to yield some rain showers. This activity will linger into Thursday night. A moisture starved cold front will then cross the area on Friday. GFS continues to be the most aggressive with a few showers possible during the day. However, most areas will likely stay dry on Friday. High pressure will then build in for the weekend. Some quasi- cooler 850mb temperatures will spread into the area Sunday and Monday behind another push of colder air, but with little cloud cover, not sure we will see much impact from this push of cooler air. The biggest impact may come during the overnight hours where we could squeeze out some lows in the 30s Sunday night. Overall the weekend is looking fantastic with highs near 70 under sunny skies. Dry weather will then carry us into Tuesday with return flow allowing for a modest warmup early next week. We could be looking at temperatures making a run at 80 by Monday or Tuesday.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT TUE APR 24 2018 Storm system over the TN and OH valley continues to rotate to the east, at present centered roughly over south central Kentucky. As expected there is a band of showers beginning to take shape across the east. HRRR seems to have had a good handle on this feature. As such did include a VCTS for SJS for a few hours early in the period, especially with a bit more sunshine in the east. However, convection is expected to be isolated and widespread enough to exclude any mention of thunder at other terminals. Flight conditions will generally deteriorate through the evening and overnight, mainly for CIGS as they drop into IFR/LIFR territory. Winds will generally be light and variably but will gradually turn out of the northwest as the storm center continues to push eastward. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...RAY LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...RAY is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.