Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 222011 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 411 PM EDT Tue May 22 2018 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 411 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2018 Showers and scattered thunderstorms continue to move through the area this afternoon ahead of a surface cold frontal boundary stretching roughly across Ohio and Indiana. This cold front will slide southeast over the next 18 hours, passing to our south Thursday morning. Last of showers will diminish across the higher terrain to our southeast Thursday morning. Until then any thunderstorms will be able to produce heavy rain, especially where storms pass repeatedly over the same location. Have already had to issue some flood products for portions of Pulaski as a result. Otherwise, mid/upper ridging will build into the Midwest through the short term providing a break in the unsettled weather we have been experiencing on and off over the last few days. Temperatures will continue to run above normal through the short term. We will see highs climb to around 80 Wednesday afternoon. Overnight lows will drop into the low to mid 60s tonight and around 60 Wednesday night. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 347 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2018 The period will begin with upper level ridge stretching from the Southeast US into Canada. This combined with surface high pressure will keep the area mostly rain free through Thursday. This high amplitude ridge will suppress through the period, as a short wave trough develops across the Upper Midwest. Then by the end of the period we could see some interaction from a tropical system developing in the Gulf of Mexico. The weakening upper level ridge and interaction with Gulf Moisture will allow for at least isolated to even some periods of scattered thunderstorms for much of the end of the period. Given the more summer like pattern the peak chances would be in the afternoon and early evening with the day time heating. The lack of shear will keep much of this activity unorganized, and by the weekend into early next week the PWATs increase such that more heavy rainfall could come from any thunderstorms that develop. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday morning) ISSUED AT 411 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2018 Showers and thunderstorms continue to affect the area through the first half of the period. A cold front will be passing through the area tonight. Thus went with general showers and VCTS for much of the afternoon. A second round of showers will be possible overnight with FROPA. Only other concern will be light fog and lower CIGS through the overnight. Winds will be generally light. Weather improves through the day Wednesday. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...RAY LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...RAY

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