Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 211044 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 644 AM EDT Wed Mar 21 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 643 AM EDT WED MAR 21 2018 Forecast is on track so far this morning. No major updates were needed besides ingesting current observations and blending into current forecast. Did update PoPs with CONSShort to reflect current trends as well. An updated zfp was not needed at this time. Updates have been sent to NDFD and to the web. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday) Issued at 506 AM EDT WED MAR 21 2018 The main low pressure system is progressing eastward, but looks to redevelop past the Appalachians. With this transition, the HRRR as well as the RAP model show rising heights over eastern Kentucky. This means subsidence is taking over, leading to diminishing precip through the morning and early afternoon. Will continue with current advisories, but with lighter accumulation than expected in most areas, have lowered overall QPF and snowfall amounts. The highest snowfall amounts are still forecasted to occur in higher elevations above 2000 feet, but mainly in the southeastern terrain. Lingering snow showers will persist late tonight into early Thursday morning in the southeastern portion of the CWA, but drier weather will take hold Thursday mid- morning through the rest of the short term period. In terms of temperatures, with the cloud cover to remain through the day, temps most likely will not rise above the mid 30s in most places. Tonight`s lows will be cooler than last with the passage of this latest system. However, with clouds clearing later on tonight as a surface high pressure builds in, high temperatures will be on the increase for Thursday, ranging from mid to upper 40s. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 556 AM EDT WED MAR 21 2018 The long wave pattern will be fairly amplified through the period, with an upper level ridge poised to move from the Plains to the Eastern Seaboard. Meanwhile, deeper troughing will evolve across the West, with more of a split-flow pattern developing by early next week as a cutoff low drops across southern California. Dry weather with below normal temperatures will start out across eastern Kentucky through Friday. A compact short wave trough and reflective surface low pressure system will then track from the central Plains to the Ohio/Tennessee valleys for the weekend, temporarily buckling the ridge. This will bring another round of precipitation to our area from Friday night through Sunday. Some snow may occur at the leading edge of this system as it moves in, and also as it exits off to our southeast. The predicted thermal profile this far out is low confidence at best, so have not mentioned any specific impacts at this point. Once this system exits on Sunday, another baroclinic zone will take shape from northeast to southwest across the center of the CONUS. The models are varying in timing on the approach of this boundary closer to the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. As such, have only carried some low chance POPs at times from Sunday night through Tuesday. Below normal temperatures through the weekend will modify to near or slightly above normal by Tuesday. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) ISSUED AT 154 AM EDT WED MAR 21 2018 IFR/LIFR ceilings with light precipitation, mainly in the form of snow, will continue across the area through 12z, as low pressure continues to rotate near the region. Light snow will continue during the day on Wednesday, with a gradual diminishment from west to east towards 00z. VFR conditions will eventually return towards the end of the period, as the system departs to our east. West to northwest winds are expected at around 10 kts, with gusts of around 20 kts at times during the day on Wednesday. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ044- 050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. && $$ UPDATE...CGAL SHORT TERM...CGAL LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN AVIATION...GEOGERIAN is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.