235
FXUS63 KJKL 111923
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
323 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Some showers and perhaps a storm or two are possible, at times,
  this afternoon.

- Precipitation free weather is anticipated from tonight into
  Monday morning, before more unsettled weather returns.

- Expect rather cool temperatures through the weekend, with
  milder weather then returning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 322 PM EDT SAT MAY 11 2024

Last in a train of short-wave troughs has shifted just east of our
area this hour. This shift and more ridging building in should bring
a period of more tranquil weather for the short term. Skies should
become mostly clear tonight, allowing for another night of aurora
watching should those colors swing by here again. Similar to this
morning, temperatures by Sunday morning should fall into the 40s for
most locations in eastern KY. High pressure crossing overhead again
will mean some potential for valley fog formation.

Under more sunshine Sunday, highs should reach well into the 70s,
close to normal for mid May. Weak southerly flow Sunday night, as
that surface high shifts southeast of the region, will mean
temperatures a little warmer by Monday morning, with lows in the
mid 40s to low 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 433 AM EDT SAT MAY 11 2024

Operational models are in good agreement through the first half
of the extended with synoptic features, and diverge from there. In
general, eastern Kentucky resides in a split flow pattern through
the period, with stronger wind fields (westerlies) across the
Deep South and to our north along the Northern Tier and Great
Lakes. Because of the weaker wind fields aloft, one main trough
only manages to crawl through the OH/TN valley regions from late
Monday through Wednesday. A second southern stream trough tracks
through the region late in the period, Dy7...or Friday. At the
surface, low pressure lifts out of the Great Plains and through
eastern Kentucky Tuesday into Wednesday, then a second low
pressure system moves into the TN valley by the end of the
forecast window.

Sensible weather features generally unsettled weather through the
extended with two main rounds of weather to deal with, the first
from late Monday through Wednesday, then a second round from
Thursday night through Friday. There are two periods of dry
weather, or at least a lull in shower activity, at the start of
the extended...Sunday night into Monday and then again Wednesday
night into Thursday. Due to a general lack of instability and
shear across the area through the period...and relatively weak
flow aloft, thunderstorm activity will likely be limited and occur
primarily during peak heating, or during the afternoon and early
evening time frame. Not seeing signals that would suggest much
hazardous weather through the period, though WPC does have eastern
Kentucky within a marginal risk for excessive rainfall Tuesday
and Tuesday night. Thinking is that this risk is primarily due to
the slow speed of the first system`s progression through the Ohio
and Tenn valleys. With limited instability and shear, and by
extension a lower risk of strong and/or severe thunderstorms over
our forecast area, it is difficult to see convection being a
primary ingredient to an overall hydro risk. Freezing levels are
not particularly high, generally below 11 kft through that portion
of the forecast. Wind fields are on the lighter side, but storm
motion is still greater than 10 kts until Tuesday night. By late
Tuesday night steering winds do drop to between 5-10 kts. PWATS
are up close to 1.4 inches, or 75th percentile of climatology.
Thus, while the threat of hydro issues is low at this time, it
would appear that if there were any problems, a Tuesday through
Tuesday night window of time would be most likely time frame of
concern.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 112 PM EDT SAT MAY 11 2024

Most active period this forecast cycle is in the first few hours,
with a band of clouds and associated showers progged to move
across the terminals this afternoon. Cannot rule out an isolated
tick of lightning, but not high enough confidence in any one site
to include in this set of TAFs. Winds will pick up from the west
and west northwest as well, with gusts of 15-20 kts. Winds will
die down quickly this evening with skies becoming partly cloudy to
clear.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHARP
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...SHARP