Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 211900 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 300 PM EDT Mon May 21 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 214 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2018 Storms will continue to slowly propagate north as they pulse and briefly contain the capability of producing small hail and gusty winds as downdrafts initially collapse. Brief heavy rain will be the more defined threat. UPDATE Issued at 1204 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2018 Beginning to see a few showers and storms fire across southeast Kentucky as temperatures have warmed to near 80 degrees. Agitated cumulus will continue to develop across the higher terrain, eventually spreading farther northward into the Bluegrass region. Given anemic shear profiles, do not expect long-lived organization to any storms that develop. Rather, brief upticks in updraft strength will be possible as cells merge, thus leading to brief periods of heavy rainfall and cloud to ground lightning. UPDATE Issued at 659 AM EDT MON MAY 21 2018 Issued an update to the forecast to input the latest observations into the forecast and trend through the mid morning hours. Slightly adjusted the amount of fog in the valleys. A new zfp will not be needed for this update. && .SHORT TERM...
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(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 440 AM EDT MON MAY 21 2018 Current conditions across the area feature mid and upper level cloud cover beginning to filter into the area. While some fog has indeed formed in the river valleys and some of the deeper valleys, this cloud cover may begin to hinder the development. The overall pattern continues to display a return flow situation with southerly flow assisted by high pressure just off the southeast coast. This as an impulse will track east today through the Midwest. The mentioned ridging in the southeast will hinder the approach of the from into the OH Valley. Nonetheless, with plenty of instability across the area today, showers and thunderstorms will develop by noon across eastern Kentucky and continue into the evening hours. Model soundings are hinting at PWATs between 1.50 and 1.75 today some storms will the potential to produce heavy rainfall will certainly be possible heading into this afternoon and evening. Tonight, despite the front pushing southeast thunderstorms will eventually diminish overnight giving way to showers. Valley fog will begin to develop, especially with the ample moisture in place. For Tuesday, the front will continue to slowly push southeast through the area. With ongoing convection, expect some of the boundary to wash out. Despite the boundary, activity will still take on a diurnal like trend in activity. Daytime heating for Tuesday afternoon will allow for additional thunderstorm development lasting into Tuesday evening. The summer like pattern will continue to be in place for the short term. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 300 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2018 The extended will feature alternating periods of wet and dry weather across eastern Kentucky. The period should begin with rain exiting the area on Wednesday, as a trough of low pressure aloft pushes off to the east of the area. Wednesday night through Thursday night should be dry, as a ridge of high pressure sets up across the region. Another area of low pressure is then forecast to push through over the weekend, bringing more rain chances to the area from Friday afternoon through the end of the upcoming weekend. The best chance for thunderstorms will be during the afternoon and evening hours. Temperatures will continue to run above normal, with daily highs in the low to mid 80s and nightly lows in the low to mid 60s expected for most locations. Valley fog will also be possible each day during the late night and early morning hours.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 214 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2018 Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop across much of eastern Kentucky this afternoon, slowly drifting off to the north. These will be capable of producing TEMPO MVFR or worse conditions, prior to storms diminishing in coverage and intensity early this evening. Fog tonight into Tuesday morning will be largely determined by where more pronounced pockets of rain fall this afternoon and early evening. Will very likely see some IFR or worse conditions at times through the night into Tuesday morning, but fine-tuning as to exactly where will need to be done with later TAF issuances following the brunt of the rainfall. Did opt to keep SYM in prevailing MVFR visibilities overnight given a longer duration of better rain chances there. Showers and storms should quickly develop Tuesday morning with borderline sub-VFR conditions for the majority of the eastern Kentucky airspace. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GUSEMAN SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...GUSEMAN

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