Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
056 FXUS63 KJKL 152232 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 632 PM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018 .UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 632 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2018 Nearly hit red flag conditions in some areas in our southwest zones this afternoon as we have had some very gusty winds develop. London has gusted to 36 knots in the last few hours with several other sites showing similar readings. The winds should start to subside over the next hour or two as surface begins to decouple with the loss of heating. Air temperatures right now are still well into the 60s in places and have updated the forecast to show a slower decline into the evening. Also tweaked the sky cover a bit as satellite shows the clouds starting to thin out in the southeast.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 325 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2018 A cold front over the northern part of the forecast area will work its way south across the forecast area tonight. The front will stall over TN on Friday. The front will then serve as a focus for precipitation as it gradually lifts north Friday night in response to low pressure moving east from the plains into the Mississippi Valley. The model trend has been for a slower onset of precipitation, and also warmer temperatures Friday night. At this time any freezing rain Friday night looks to occur north and northeast of the forecast area. Some mid level clouds, associated with a jet streak, have lingered across the center part of the forecast area through much of the day. These should gradually shift south overnight. Despite a gradual increase in clouds in the south and eventually the central part of the forecast area late tonight, there should still be enough radiational cooling in the valleys for at least a small ridge valley temperature difference to develop tonight. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 419 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2018 A frontal boundary oscillating back and forth over the region will be the main feature through most of the period, bringing temperatures variations and a potential for precipitation. The front is forecast to be bisecting the area as the period starts on Saturday morning, but it should drop to our south as a cold front early in the evening. The NAM and GFS show instability to varying extents as the front moves through, and a slight chance of thunder is included. Surface high pressure slipping by to our north is expected to provide a dry day on Sunday, before the front returns north as a warm front. This will be in response to a low pressure system heading east from the plains and up the Ohio Valley. It is supported by a shortwave trough tracing its roots to an upper low currently off the Pacific Northwest coast. As the low passes by and coastal development takes over to the east, the front will be drawn back to the southeast and is expected to pass through the JKL forecast area as a cold front on Tuesday. Showers will be mentioned in the forecast Monday through Tuesday, with the highest POP as the low passes by on Monday night. The large coastal system works to carve out a significant eastern CONUS trough to end the forecast period. This results in a return of well below normal temperatures for our area. Light precipitation will be possible for our area under the upper trough, combined with low level cyclonic flow and cold air advection. It should be cold enough for at least some of this to be snow. A bit of light accumulation can`t be ruled out. However, with light precip amounts at such long range, the specifics are likely to change and it`s a little early to play it up. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2018 Mixing has allowed some stronger winds aloft to make their way down to the surface. As a result west winds will gust to between 20 and 30 knots this afternoon. The winds will diminish quickly this evening and become variable and light in most areas by Friday morning. VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF forecast period, with mid level clouds gradually increasing over southern and central parts of the forecast area tonight. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...KAS SHORT TERM...SBH LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...SBH is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.