Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 230540 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 140 AM EDT Wed May 23 2018 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 135 AM EDT WED MAY 23 2018 Issued an update to the forecast to input the latest observations and trend them through the night. Also adjusted sky cover to better reflect the left over cloud cover pushing southeast as the last of the showers dissipate. UPDATE Issued at 1028 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2018 Storms to the north weakened just before they crossed into our forecast area. Still a few showers a little farther north along the cold frontal boundary, but instability is diminished and thus thunder has been removed for the remainder of the overnight period. With the cold front slowly sinking southward overnight, kept in a slight chance for a few showers, although most areas should stay dry overnight. Also, updated to include dense valley fog as we have already seen locally dense fog developing in the valleys. Its even been observed from here at our office, looking down into the valleys. Issued an SPS to highlight the fog through the overnight period. A dense fog advisory could be needed if fog continues to expand. UPDATE Issued at 759 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2018 Showers and storms in the south and east have come to an end or exiting the area. However, a narrow line of showers and storms associated with the main cold front is slowly creeping southward across northern Kentucky. This activity may drop into the area, mainly north of I-64 by 10 pm, before dissipating as it encounters drastically lower instability further south. Thus, expect this activity to weaken and dissipate as it moves into the area. This will also help to limit the severe threat. Grids have been updated to reflect these changes. UPDATE Issued at 544 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2018 With activity now focused in the far east and south, have updated to remove pops for much of the area through the evening hours. We may see some isolated showers work in from the north this evening and left some isolated pops in across the north mainly after 03z. Otherwise, main focus for tonight will be on fog potential with temperatures already around 70 in most areas and recent rainfall adding into the equation.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 411 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2018 Showers and scattered thunderstorms continue to move through the area this afternoon ahead of a surface cold frontal boundary stretching roughly across Ohio and Indiana. This cold front will slide southeast over the next 18 hours, passing to our south Thursday morning. Last of showers will diminish across the higher terrain to our southeast Thursday morning. Until then any thunderstorms will be able to produce heavy rain, especially where storms pass repeatedly over the same location. Have already had to issue some flood products for portions of Pulaski as a result. Otherwise, mid/upper ridging will build into the Midwest through the short term providing a break in the unsettled weather we have been experiencing on and off over the last few days. Temperatures will continue to run above normal through the short term. We will see highs climb to around 80 Wednesday afternoon. Overnight lows will drop into the low to mid 60s tonight and around 60 Wednesday night. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 347 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2018 The period will begin with upper level ridge stretching from the Southeast US into Canada. This combined with surface high pressure will keep the area mostly rain free through Thursday. This high amplitude ridge will suppress through the period, as a short wave trough develops across the Upper Midwest. Then by the end of the period we could see some interaction from a tropical system developing in the Gulf of Mexico. The weakening upper level ridge and interaction with Gulf Moisture will allow for at least isolated to even some periods of scattered thunderstorms for much of the end of the period. Given the more summer like pattern the peak chances would be in the afternoon and early evening with the day time heating. The lack of shear will keep much of this activity unorganized, and by the weekend into early next week the PWATs increase such that more heavy rainfall could come from any thunderstorms that develop. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT WED MAY 23 2018 A decaying cold front will continue to push south through the area overnight. Minimal cloud cover to begin the night with the exception of a few stray showers will allow for fog to develop across the area tonight. This is true especially for areas that received heavy rainfall during the day. This below field min conditions at many of the TAF sites will continue through 13 and 14Z this morning. Will also expect a few locations showing a VLIFR cig through this time as well. High pressure nudging into the area will allow cloud cover to clear out rather quickly heading into this afternoon. Winds are expected to be light through the entire period.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER SHORT TERM...RAY LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER

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