Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --114 FXUS62 KKEY 131420 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1020 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION...-- Changed Discussion --Issued at 1020 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Nocturnal showers collapsed after sunrise over Gulfside waters this morning, which has led to a mostly sunny morning across the Florida Keys. Thunderstorms still linger off the western coast of Florida, and the 12Z balloon suggests the atmosphere remains primed for showers and thunderstorms later today. The sampled PWAT was above the 75th percentile for the day, and CIMSS MIMIC-derived PWAT corroborated the observation with measures of around 2 inches across the Keys. Near surface winds also collapsed early this morning to light and variable breezes along the reef. Unfortunately, the lack of sustained winds and deep layers of moisture indicates conditions outside will be hot and muggy. Dew points are in the upper 70s across the island chain, and highs are on track to reach the upper 80s or near 90. Stay hydrated, wear sunscreen, because the Florida Keys summer is making its mark. The area of interest for the Keys during the next few days will be a weak low pressure system currently off the Georgia coastline. This trough is forecast to slowly move southwestward towards the Gulf over the next few days, and the National Hurricane Center is monitoring this low for potential tropical development during the next seven days. What this means for tonight and tomorrow is that breezes are expected to remain light and variable outside of showers. Additionally, the movement of this low and a shift towards directing a large plume of moisture across the Keys means shower chances will increase tonight and tomorrow. Did not touch the forecast, leaving it at 50% PoPs tonight. The Upper Keys are more likely to see heavy rainfall than the Middle or Lower Keys in this pattern. Regardless, it is time to plan for rainfall.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .MARINE...-- Changed Discussion --Issued at 1020 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025 There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, high pressure remains in control across much of the Florida Keys through tonight. This will result in east to southeast breezes today becoming variable. Weak low pressure tries to develop in the vicinity of Florida heading through the first half of the week. Initially, the Keys will be on the southern fringe in a col region resulting in mainly variable breezes through Monday night. As the weak low pressure area shifts to the west and high pressure builds in behind, breezes will freshen becoming southeast to south at first, before becoming east to southeast for mid to late week. Also, expect increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms for the early to middle part of the week.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .AVIATION...-- Changed Discussion --(12Z TAFS) Issued at 1020 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025 VFR conditions prevail at EYW and MTH for the 12Z TAF period. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will remain possible, but the short duration indicates MVFR conditions would be brief. Winds will shift from southeasterlies at 5 to 10 knots to variable later in the day. Expect higher gusts near showers. Shower coverage is expected to increase late this evening into the overnight hours, but details on where and when showers would reach the terminals is unclear, and thus mention of these showers is left out of TAF.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .CLIMATE... On this day in 2023, the daily record high temperature of 99F was recorded at Marathon. This is also tied for the warmest temperature ever recorded for the month of July, or any month, for the Marathon area. The daily record warm low temperature of 86F was also recorded at Marathon in 2023. Temperature records for Marathon date back to 1950. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...MJV Aviation/Nowcasts....AJP Data Acquisition.....MC Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest