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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KKEY 040901
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
401 AM EST Thu Mar 4 2021

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
Under mostly cloudy skies and northwest winds of 10 to 15 mph,
temperatures range from the mid 60s in the Upper Keys to the lower
70s elsewhere. Meanwhile, local radars are void of any
precipitation echoes in our area. On our marine district, winds
are northwest near 15 knots.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
A weak area of high pressure centered over the Southeast United
States will slowly spread out, as a trough of low pressure lying
from the southeast Florida coast to the Bahamas pushes
southwestward and then stalls near our area early Saturday
morning. Thereafter, a subtle low pressure system is expected to
form along the aforementioned boundary will sag southward, while
an expansive region of high pressure presses down the Florida
Peninsula. With that, weak confluence and a slight increase in low
level moisture will prompt 10 to 30 percent rain chances Saturday
and Saturday night. Otherwise, slightly below normal temperatures
will once again return to above normal Friday afternoon through
Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
In wake of the frontal boundary, a very formidable region of
high pressure in the Ohio Valley will expand and strengthen
into the Carolinas early next week, before retreating into the
western Atlantic Ocean through the middle of next week. Meanwhile,
a lengthy ridge axis will reach across the extreme Southeast
United States and the Sunshine State, resulting in strong
northeast to east breezes. With that, slightly cooler and drier
air will gradually moderate and moisten in the low levels below
850 mb. Hence, windy conditions with isolated rain chances will be
kept beginning Monday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Moderate to fresh northwest breezes will slacken this afternoon,
before becoming moderate tonight, and abating appreciably Thursday
night into early Saturday morning. For the balance of this weekend
and next week, a significant wind surge will overspread our entire
marine district late Saturday night and into next week. Because of
this, confidence continues to increase so a Small Craft Advisory
will likely be hoisted for an extended period of time. Stay
tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...
A large area of strato-cu is being seem upstream of the Florida Keys
on satellite imagery, so BKN ceilings may last through midday before
moving out of the area. MVFR CIGS are still lingering at both
terminals this morning. Ceiling heights are currently trying to
lift, however, when the transition from MVFR to VFR CIGS will occur
is still somewhat unclear. A TEMPO is currently in place for these
CIGS at both EYW and MTH, and amendments will be made as necessary.
Surface winds will be northwest at 10 to 15 knots, with occasional
gusts of 15 to 20 knots at EYW and 20 to 25 knots at MTH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
In 1980, the daily record low temperature of 49 degrees was
recorded in Key West. Temperature records date back to 1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West 74 65 77 70 / 0 0 0 0
Marathon 75 65 78 70 / 0 0 0 0


&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...APA
Aviation/Nowcasts....NB

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