Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL

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000 FXUS62 KKEY 040901 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 401 AM EST Thu Mar 4 2021 .DISCUSSION... .CURRENTLY... Under mostly cloudy skies and northwest winds of 10 to 15 mph, temperatures range from the mid 60s in the Upper Keys to the lower 70s elsewhere. Meanwhile, local radars are void of any precipitation echoes in our area. On our marine district, winds are northwest near 15 knots. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night) A weak area of high pressure centered over the Southeast United States will slowly spread out, as a trough of low pressure lying from the southeast Florida coast to the Bahamas pushes southwestward and then stalls near our area early Saturday morning. Thereafter, a subtle low pressure system is expected to form along the aforementioned boundary will sag southward, while an expansive region of high pressure presses down the Florida Peninsula. With that, weak confluence and a slight increase in low level moisture will prompt 10 to 30 percent rain chances Saturday and Saturday night. Otherwise, slightly below normal temperatures will once again return to above normal Friday afternoon through Saturday. && .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday) In wake of the frontal boundary, a very formidable region of high pressure in the Ohio Valley will expand and strengthen into the Carolinas early next week, before retreating into the western Atlantic Ocean through the middle of next week. Meanwhile, a lengthy ridge axis will reach across the extreme Southeast United States and the Sunshine State, resulting in strong northeast to east breezes. With that, slightly cooler and drier air will gradually moderate and moisten in the low levels below 850 mb. Hence, windy conditions with isolated rain chances will be kept beginning Monday night. && .MARINE... Moderate to fresh northwest breezes will slacken this afternoon, before becoming moderate tonight, and abating appreciably Thursday night into early Saturday morning. For the balance of this weekend and next week, a significant wind surge will overspread our entire marine district late Saturday night and into next week. Because of this, confidence continues to increase so a Small Craft Advisory will likely be hoisted for an extended period of time. Stay tuned. && .AVIATION... A large area of strato-cu is being seem upstream of the Florida Keys on satellite imagery, so BKN ceilings may last through midday before moving out of the area. MVFR CIGS are still lingering at both terminals this morning. Ceiling heights are currently trying to lift, however, when the transition from MVFR to VFR CIGS will occur is still somewhat unclear. A TEMPO is currently in place for these CIGS at both EYW and MTH, and amendments will be made as necessary. Surface winds will be northwest at 10 to 15 knots, with occasional gusts of 15 to 20 knots at EYW and 20 to 25 knots at MTH. && .CLIMATE... In 1980, the daily record low temperature of 49 degrees was recorded in Key West. Temperature records date back to 1872. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 74 65 77 70 / 0 0 0 0 Marathon 75 65 78 70 / 0 0 0 0 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...APA Aviation/Nowcasts....NB Visit us on the web at Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.