Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL

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000 FXUS62 KKEY 260323 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1023 PM EST Tue Jan 25 2022 .DISCUSSION...
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Currently - Southern stream troughing reaching into the Gulf of Mexico is assisting a sloppy surface low beneath. Locally, winds have picked up a notch with a tightening pressure gradient between the gulf low and high pressure just northeast of the Bahamas. East to southeasterly winds currently range from near 10 knots on our eastern zones to near 15 knots to the west. Through the evening hours a band of showers and thunderstorms have been making steady progress east northeastwards in the extreme southeastern Gulf of Mexico. However, this activity has continually dissipated as they worked their way nearer and, thus far, only the stratiform shield has made progress on our deep gulf zones. Conditions have moderated considerably since the very cool morning, with temperatures remaining in the lower to mid 70s and dew points all the way up into the mid 60s. Short Term Update - Guidance has been reasonably steady in indicating the upper troughing in the gulf will flatten and lift out some. At the same time, expansive surface ridging will continue to expand over the eastern United States. As a result, the surface gulf low/trough will gradually weaken and shift southeastwards nearer the island chain. With that said, guidance remains insistent that the probability for measurable precipitation along the island chain remains slight. This has been consistent with the observed dissipating trend as convection moves nearer the Keys. Winds will likely peak in the next few hours, then lull slightly through the morning while shifting southerly. There is a good deal of uncertainty as it will depend largely on the shape and location of the weak gulf low, as well as, the structure and location of associated convection. For now no updated is planned.
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&& .MARINE...
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Gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes late this evening will likely strengthen slightly over the next few hours in response to a weak and weakening low moving southeastward into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Thereafter, winds should ease off. However, there is some uncertainty in the short term. Convection associated with this low has tended to weaken substantially before making it into our northwestern and western waters. However, more recently, there are signs that deep convection may begin to affect our western waters overnight. Minor adjustments have been made to nudge up nearshore gulf waters. Otherwise, no changes made in the evening marine update.
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&& .AVIATION...
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VFR conditions expected at the island terminals. There will be a chance for light to moderate rain, but conditions should remain VFR. Surface winds will be around 10 knots with gusts near 15 knots and shifting from southeast to south.
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&& .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...11 Aviation/Nowcasts....11 Data Acquisition.....MRR Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest

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