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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS63 KLBF 021712
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1112 AM CST Tue Mar 2 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 401 AM CST Tue Mar 2 2021

A subtle shortwave will skirt quickly eastward across the Dakotas
today with a weak cold front to move southeast across the area. Just
ahead of the front H85 temps of 7-9C will be in place across north
central through southwest NE this morning. In addition, southwest
surface flow ahead of the front will continue to advect dry air into
the area from CO, with dew points in the mid to upper teens.
Temperatures rise quickly this morning as the warmer air aloft mixes
to the surface in a well mixed boundary layer. Fire weather
conditions will be at near-critical levels across mostly all of
western and north central Nebraska both ahead and behind the
southeastward advancing weak cold front. Ahead of the front across
central into portions of north central Nebraska, temperatures will
rise into the 60s with humidity values falling into the 20-25%
range. Southwest wind gusts of 25-30 mph will be maximized around
noontime, and then decrease slightly as the front crosses the area
this afternoon and winds switch to west and then northwest. Across
the southeast Panhandle, and into west central and southwest NE, the
weak front will cross the area late this morning into the early
afternoon hours. HRRR and RAP soundings show potential for west to
northwest wind gusts of 25 mph for a couple of hours as the front
passes. Humidity values are expected to be in the 15-20% range
during this time. Humidity values actually rise slightly this
afternoon behind the front as dew points rise a couple of degrees.
Bottom line is much of western and north central NE will see near-
critical fire weather conditions today and will be monitored
closely.

Humidity recovers nicely tonight with most areas rising above 80%
overnight. Winds will be light west to northwest tonight with
temperatures quickly falling into the mid to upper 20s, with colder
lower 20s across portions of the Panhandle and the Platte River
Valley. Elevated fire weather conditions expected again Wednesday,
especially west of Hwy 83, but overall winds will be lighter than
today. To the east of Hwy 83, surface dew points will rise some as
light southerly surface flow begins to advect upstream 30 degree dew
points northward into the area. It will be another warm day with H85
temperatures of 8-10C again supporting highs in the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 401 AM CST Tue Mar 2 2021

Models have been indicating that an upper level low currently off
the coast of southern CA will migrate toward the four corners region
by Thursday morning. Meanwhile a deep cold upper level low will
retrograde westward across eastern Canada. This retrograding upper
low is significant because it has a large impact on the track of the
upper low as it tracks into the Plains. Northwesterly flow aloft
will intensify across the Great Lakes region as the upper low
retrogrades westward. This will essentially block the four corners
upper low from tracking northeast as it emerges onto the Plains
Thursday night into Friday. Models track the low due east into
western KS Thursday night and then turn it southeast into OK Friday.
This seems like a reasonable solution due to intensifying northwest
flow across the Great Lakes. Question for us is how quickly will the
system turns to the southeast and how much precipitation will make
it into our area. NAM is quite bullish with some decent QPF making
it into southwest NE, with the GFS and ECMWF giving at least some
light amounts. Ensemble QPF is right around one tenth of an inch
along I-80 and nearly one quarter of an inch closer to the KS
border. Regardless of amounts it appears that nearly all will fall
as rain.

By the weekend a large upper level ridge will translate eastward
across the central CONUS. This assures dry weather and continued
warm temperatures. Then by early next week deep troughing begins to
take shape across the western CONUS. Southerly surface flow develops
across the Plains ahead of the trough, possibly drawing substantial
Gulf moisture northward into the region. This could set the stage
for the seasons first round of convection.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1112 AM CST Tue Mar 2 2021

Other than some briefly gusty west/northwest winds this afternoon,
little concern exists for aviation weather across western
Nebraska. Clear skies results in VFR, and winds become
light/variable after sundown.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Snively