Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000 FXUS63 KLBF 021712 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 1112 AM CST Tue Mar 2 2021 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 401 AM CST Tue Mar 2 2021 A subtle shortwave will skirt quickly eastward across the Dakotas today with a weak cold front to move southeast across the area. Just ahead of the front H85 temps of 7-9C will be in place across north central through southwest NE this morning. In addition, southwest surface flow ahead of the front will continue to advect dry air into the area from CO, with dew points in the mid to upper teens. Temperatures rise quickly this morning as the warmer air aloft mixes to the surface in a well mixed boundary layer. Fire weather conditions will be at near-critical levels across mostly all of western and north central Nebraska both ahead and behind the southeastward advancing weak cold front. Ahead of the front across central into portions of north central Nebraska, temperatures will rise into the 60s with humidity values falling into the 20-25% range. Southwest wind gusts of 25-30 mph will be maximized around noontime, and then decrease slightly as the front crosses the area this afternoon and winds switch to west and then northwest. Across the southeast Panhandle, and into west central and southwest NE, the weak front will cross the area late this morning into the early afternoon hours. HRRR and RAP soundings show potential for west to northwest wind gusts of 25 mph for a couple of hours as the front passes. Humidity values are expected to be in the 15-20% range during this time. Humidity values actually rise slightly this afternoon behind the front as dew points rise a couple of degrees. Bottom line is much of western and north central NE will see near- critical fire weather conditions today and will be monitored closely. Humidity recovers nicely tonight with most areas rising above 80% overnight. Winds will be light west to northwest tonight with temperatures quickly falling into the mid to upper 20s, with colder lower 20s across portions of the Panhandle and the Platte River Valley. Elevated fire weather conditions expected again Wednesday, especially west of Hwy 83, but overall winds will be lighter than today. To the east of Hwy 83, surface dew points will rise some as light southerly surface flow begins to advect upstream 30 degree dew points northward into the area. It will be another warm day with H85 temperatures of 8-10C again supporting highs in the 60s. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 401 AM CST Tue Mar 2 2021 Models have been indicating that an upper level low currently off the coast of southern CA will migrate toward the four corners region by Thursday morning. Meanwhile a deep cold upper level low will retrograde westward across eastern Canada. This retrograding upper low is significant because it has a large impact on the track of the upper low as it tracks into the Plains. Northwesterly flow aloft will intensify across the Great Lakes region as the upper low retrogrades westward. This will essentially block the four corners upper low from tracking northeast as it emerges onto the Plains Thursday night into Friday. Models track the low due east into western KS Thursday night and then turn it southeast into OK Friday. This seems like a reasonable solution due to intensifying northwest flow across the Great Lakes. Question for us is how quickly will the system turns to the southeast and how much precipitation will make it into our area. NAM is quite bullish with some decent QPF making it into southwest NE, with the GFS and ECMWF giving at least some light amounts. Ensemble QPF is right around one tenth of an inch along I-80 and nearly one quarter of an inch closer to the KS border. Regardless of amounts it appears that nearly all will fall as rain. By the weekend a large upper level ridge will translate eastward across the central CONUS. This assures dry weather and continued warm temperatures. Then by early next week deep troughing begins to take shape across the western CONUS. Southerly surface flow develops across the Plains ahead of the trough, possibly drawing substantial Gulf moisture northward into the region. This could set the stage for the seasons first round of convection. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 1112 AM CST Tue Mar 2 2021 Other than some briefly gusty west/northwest winds this afternoon, little concern exists for aviation weather across western Nebraska. Clear skies results in VFR, and winds become light/variable after sundown.
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&& .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Taylor LONG TERM...Taylor AVIATION...Snively

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