Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000 FXUS64 KLCH 050412 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1012 PM CST Thu Mar 4 2021 .UPDATE... Somewhat more dense high clouds have been streaming across the region this evening within the westerly flow wrapping around the upper level low over western Oklahoma that is progged to dig southeast tonight into tomorrow. The low will induce scattered precipitation development tomorrow afternoon with forecast instability expected to be high enough for some isolated thunderstorms. Minor adjustments were made to PoPs tomorrow afternoon and evening to better reflect the latest hi res guidance. Hourly temps and dewpoint trends look good although there is some variation across the region. Some of the hi res guidance is again hinting at radiation fog early tomorrow morning, but think the combination of high clouds and slightly higher winds may be enough to hold the vast majority of this at bay so opted to keep it out of the forecast attm. Jones && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 603 PM CST Thu Mar 4 2021/ DISCUSSION... For the 03/05/21 0000 UTC TAF package. AVIATION... VFR is expected to prevail tonight amid generally light SE flow, with increasing high/mid level clouds after midnight into FRI morning ahead of an approaching upper trof. Clouds will tend to lower through the day via increasing MSTR, with MVFR CIGS expected to develop by mid morning KBPT and early afternoon KLCH. Remaining sites are expected to remain VFR through this forecast period away from convection, with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms expected during the afternoon. PROB groups were inserted at each site for this potential. 13 PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 330 PM CST Thu Mar 4 2021/ DISCUSSION... Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows high pressure centered over the ArkLaMiss and sern LA ridging wwd, with low-level winds now gradually shifting to a more onshore direction. Water vapor imagery shows a weak ridge building ahead of our next weather maker moving out of the Rockies at this time. Combo of these features have led temps to warm compared to yesterday with sfc obs indicating readings generally around 70F at this time. Satellite imagery shows just a little cloud cover, primarily in the form of mid/high-level cloud cover, flowing over the region which is corroborating this morning`s mostly dry sounding. Regional 88Ds are PPINE. Over the short-term, we begin transitioning again as sfc high pressure continues to push east of the region. Quiet weather for one more night though with just an increase in cloud cover expected as upper cloud cover continues to stream over the area. Temps will continue to warm with lows in the mid 40`s to lower 50`s overnight...likely starting to warm prior to sunrise as serly flow develops. The storm system pushing out of the Rockies this afternoon is progged to proceed swiftly ewd into the weekend, moving into wrn TX by tomorrow and helping induce sfc low pressure development over the Red River Valley at that time. With a deepening onshore flow developing prior to its arrival, expect scattered showers/few storms to develop over the area by late tomorrow, continuing through the evening as the system pushes esewd into the forecast area. Precip should shut off by the early morning on Saturday as drier nrly flow sets up through the column behind the system. Expect clearing skies by late in the day and slightly below normal temps. Fairly benign weather anticipated through the remainder of the weekend and early next week. One quick passage of a mid/upper- level disturbance Sunday night into Monday is expected to only bring a quick shot of additional cloud cover as low-level moisture return isn`t expected in time to allow additional low- level moistening. Temps will start on the cool/seasonal side with lows generally in the 40`s before the warming commences (highs in the 70`s by Tuesday). Long-range guidance has backed off rain chances with the next system on Wednesday, although some convection will certainly be possible given good daytime heating and increasing low-level moisture/instability...primary hindrance appears to be a good low-level focus in the form of the next sfc front which is still progged to stay to our north. 25 MARINE... An elevated offshore flow behind the departing low for the weekend, otherwise no flags are anticipated on the coastal waters through this forecast period. 25 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 45 67 45 63 / 0 40 40 0 LCH 50 68 50 68 / 0 40 50 0 LFT 48 69 50 66 / 0 30 50 0 BPT 50 68 51 67 / 0 50 40 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC...66

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