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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS64 KLCH 050412
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1012 PM CST Thu Mar 4 2021

.UPDATE...
Somewhat more dense high clouds have been streaming across the
region this evening within the westerly flow wrapping around the
upper level low over western Oklahoma that is progged to dig
southeast tonight into tomorrow. The low will induce scattered
precipitation development tomorrow afternoon with forecast
instability expected to be high enough for some isolated
thunderstorms. Minor adjustments were made to PoPs tomorrow
afternoon and evening to better reflect the latest hi res
guidance. Hourly temps and dewpoint trends look good although
there is some variation across the region.

Some of the hi res guidance is again hinting at radiation fog
early tomorrow morning, but think the combination of high clouds
and slightly higher winds may be enough to hold the vast majority
of this at bay so opted to keep it out of the forecast attm.

Jones

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 603 PM CST Thu Mar 4 2021/

DISCUSSION...
For the 03/05/21 0000 UTC TAF package.

AVIATION...
VFR is expected to prevail tonight amid generally light SE flow,
with increasing high/mid level clouds after midnight into FRI
morning ahead of an approaching upper trof. Clouds will tend to
lower through the day via increasing MSTR, with MVFR CIGS
expected to develop by mid morning KBPT and early afternoon KLCH.
Remaining sites are expected to remain VFR through this forecast
period away from convection, with scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms expected during the afternoon. PROB groups were
inserted at each site for this potential.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 330 PM CST Thu Mar 4 2021/

DISCUSSION...
Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows high pressure centered over the
ArkLaMiss and sern LA ridging wwd, with low-level winds now
gradually shifting to a more onshore direction. Water vapor
imagery shows a weak ridge building ahead of our next weather
maker moving out of the Rockies at this time. Combo of these
features have led temps to warm compared to yesterday with sfc
obs indicating readings generally around 70F at this time. Satellite
imagery shows just a little cloud cover, primarily in the form of
mid/high-level cloud cover, flowing over the region which is
corroborating this morning`s mostly dry sounding. Regional 88Ds
are PPINE.

Over the short-term, we begin transitioning again as sfc high
pressure continues to push east of the region. Quiet weather for
one more night though with just an increase in cloud cover
expected as upper cloud cover continues to stream over the area.
Temps will continue to warm with lows in the mid 40`s to lower
50`s overnight...likely starting to warm prior to sunrise as serly
flow develops.

The storm system pushing out of the Rockies this afternoon is
progged to proceed swiftly ewd into the weekend, moving into wrn
TX by tomorrow and helping induce sfc low pressure development
over the Red River Valley at that time. With a deepening onshore
flow developing prior to its arrival, expect scattered showers/few
storms to develop over the area by late tomorrow, continuing
through the evening as the system pushes esewd into the forecast
area. Precip should shut off by the early morning on Saturday as
drier nrly flow sets up through the column behind the system.
Expect clearing skies by late in the day and slightly below normal
temps.

Fairly benign weather anticipated through the remainder of the
weekend and early next week. One quick passage of a mid/upper-
level disturbance Sunday night into Monday is expected to only
bring a quick shot of additional cloud cover as low-level
moisture return isn`t expected in time to allow additional low-
level moistening. Temps will start on the cool/seasonal side with
lows generally in the 40`s before the warming commences (highs in
the 70`s by Tuesday). Long-range guidance has backed off rain
chances with the next system on Wednesday, although some
convection will certainly be possible given good daytime heating
and increasing low-level moisture/instability...primary hindrance
appears to be a good low-level focus in the form of the next sfc
front which is still progged to stay to our north.

25

MARINE...
An elevated offshore flow behind the departing low for the
weekend, otherwise no flags are anticipated on the coastal waters
through this forecast period.

25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  45  67  45  63 /   0  40  40   0
LCH  50  68  50  68 /   0  40  50   0
LFT  48  69  50  66 /   0  30  50   0
BPT  50  68  51  67 /   0  50  40   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...66