Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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438 FXUS64 KLCH 191540 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1040 AM CDT Mon Apr 19 2021 .DISCUSSION... Other than nudging up temps a degree or so based on latest readings from around the region and updated guidance, few changes to inherited grids/zones were made this morning as all appeared to be in line based on going trends. 25 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 636 AM CDT Mon Apr 19 2021/ DISCUSSION... 12Z TAFS AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Surface high pressure will continue to build into the area today from the west resulting in light northeasterly winds. Modest upper level moisture will result in SCT high clouds traversing the region within the westerly flow aloft with this cloud cover becoming more dense overnight. Jones PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 245 AM CDT Mon Apr 19 2021/ DISCUSSION... Wx map shows 1020 mb sfc high over East Texas with light northerly flow to calm winds over the inland locations, still around 10-15 kts from the coast into the coastal waters. Satellite imagery still showing Ct/bkn cirrus roughly along and south of the I-10 corridor into the Gulf. Temperatures range from the mid to upper 40s north of I-10 with mostly clear skies and calm winds to the lower/mid 50s along the I-10 corridor of SE TX/S LA. Clouds expected to thin out a bit more, leaving mostly sunny skies for today and highs in the lower 70s expected. Clouds will be on the increase later overnight into Tuesday ahead of the next cold front, which is expected late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. For a change, no precipitation is expected with this frontal passage, but will see even cooler air filter across the region Wednesday into Thursday morning, where temperatures are expected to average around 10-12 degrees below normal for morning lows and daytime highs. By Thursday afternoon, the surface high will slide east of the region, with east to southeast winds returning by Thursday evening into Friday as the front lifts back northward. The wind pattern aloft, mainly zonal for most of this week, will feature a significant shortwave to move west to east by Friday into Saturday across the region. With this, along with the retreating warm front, ArkLaTex surface low, and Gulf moisture, will come high precipitation chances by Friday afternoon into roughly early Saturday morning. Little too early to determine specifics, such as possibility of severe weather. However, with the quick movement, the multiple day rain event like last week seems unlikely at this time. Expect diminishing chances of precipitation and slightly cooler air behind the front by Saturday afternoon into Sunday. DML MARINE... Light to modest offshore winds are expected to continue through mid week with the passage of another cold front late Tuesday into Wednesday. Onshore flow is expected by late Thursday into Friday as the front moves back north, along with increased chances of showers and thunderstorms by Friday afternoon and evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 72 49 78 44 / 0 10 0 0 LCH 72 54 78 49 / 0 10 0 0 LFT 71 53 77 48 / 0 10 0 0 BPT 74 54 80 49 / 0 10 0 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$

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