Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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000 FXUS64 KLIX 040940 AFDLIX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service New Orleans LA 340 AM CST Thu Mar 4 2021 .SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday)... An upper level ridge will be building in across the southern half of the Mississippi River Valley today as trough to the east progresses eastward. This will cause temps to rebound back with highs reaching to slightly exceeding climo normals. Forecast high temps are closer to the warmer MEX guidance for this afternoon as it has been doing better with warming up period vs the NBM. Otherwise, expect clear skies today with possibly some clouds moving in late in the overnight period. Probably not enough time with overcast skies to impact lows, so stayed with rising height induced bump in temps. Friday afternoon and evening will be the next chance for rainfall over the local area. A shortwave tracking across the Rocky Mountains today will dive southeast towards the lower Mississippi Valley late Friday. It will be very positively tilted and weakening as its opening up to be absorbed by a longwave trough situated to the northeast. Those characteristics of the weaker wave coming in aren`t one of a severe weather pattern. Plus, model soundings don`t even show enough instability for lightning. However, coverage suggested by medium range models suggest rain chances on the order of 50 to 70% during the Friday evening time frame. Expect rainfall to quickly be shifting east Friday night and out of the CWA likely before sunrise Saturday morning. Due to the fact that this shortwave is such a weak amplitude system, don`t expect cooling to be particularly impactful behind the associated cold front. In fact, temps will probably only drop down to normal for this time of year. MEFFER && .LONG TERM (Sunday through Wednesday)... Going into the day on Sunday, we enter the upstream portion of the departing shortwave trough promoting high pressure in control of a large majority of the eastern US down to the northern Gulf of Mexico. Have noticed over the past few days some light reflection of a weak shortwave trough riding across the southern Plains underneath a larger developing ridge axis dominating the central US. With deep troughing in place up and down the east coast, widespread subsidence and limited moisture will keep any rain chances at a minimum with no real reflection of this system other than some mid to upper-level clouds. Going into next week, the big story will be a progressive SW to NE flow developing aloft with deep troughing across the west coast, and ridging across the east coast helping to drag 585/eventual 588dm heights up across the northern Gulf coast. This yields a more confident feel at the potential for well above-normal temperatures next week, especially by the middle to later part of the week. Blends are coming in already on a warmer bias which looks good, but wanted to jump on this a bit more as long-range guidance remains consistent on trends. Will have no problem reaching the 80`s come mid/later next week. Only minor change thereafter into late week is the GFS backing off on the idea of bringing the next front through, which makes sense given the upper-level wind pattern becoming more zonal with time as ridging splits and settles into the Gulf of Mexico. ECMWF coming in a bit different breaking off a secondary low along the front which attempts to blow through on Friday, but has not been to consistent with trends. Nevertheless, this ridge will not last long looking way down the line into next weekend where eventually a front will attempt to pull through the area but wont get into details just yet so stay tuned. KLG && .AVIATION... Expect VFR conditions for all area terminals through the forecast period. Some patchy areas of surface fog may be possible between 08Z and 13Z this morning, with better chances west of BTR. However, impacts are not anticipated to any area terminals at this time with SKC and calm winds continuing into the day on Thursday. KLG && .MARINE... Winds and seas subside this afternoon as surface high pressure center moves in right on top of the CWA. Light southerly flow will begin early Friday morning and rise to around 15kt later in the day ahead of the next system that should affect the northern gulf Friday into early Saturday. Strong northeasterly winds around 25kt could occur over the weekend once this cold front moves through. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 69 43 70 46 / 0 0 30 50 BTR 71 46 72 48 / 0 0 30 60 ASD 72 43 73 48 / 0 0 20 70 MSY 67 49 73 53 / 0 0 20 70 GPT 67 46 70 48 / 0 0 10 60 PQL 69 42 72 47 / 0 0 10 60 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$

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