-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
971
FXUS64 KLIX 031740
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
Issued by National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1240 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 1102 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

A drier airmass indicated by PW of 1.7 to 1.9 inches will be the
direct result of an upper level ridge becoming more centered over
the central Gulf coast. As sinking air aloft warms and dries, it
will allow for the development of a mid-level temperature
inversion around the 700mb or 10k feet level. This capping
inversion will effectively limit updraft development, and this
will lead to less overall shower and thunderstorm activity across
most of the forecast area each day. At most, an isolated shower or
weak thunderstorm could try to fire up along the seabreeze
boundary where low level convergence is maximized. With this in
mind, there are 20 to 30 percent PoP values in place for coastal
Louisiana both Thursday and Friday afternoon. Less cloud cover and
the drier air mixing down to the surface each day will allow
temperatures to warm into the mid 90s. However, the drier air and
lower humidity values will keep extreme heat at bay with heat
index values of 100 to 105 expected on Thursday and Friday. These
values are not uncommon for early July. [PG/DSS]

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 231 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Going further into the holiday weekend, our region will be in a
somewhat interesting northeasterly flow aloft as a ridge sets up
over the mid-south region. A mid/upper level weakness will develop
over the Gulf waters and perhaps close off into an upper level low
just south of our region by Saturday afternoon. Will continue to
advertise lower POPs on Saturday, but this will be the end of the
hot/dry-ish spell across the region.

Going into the start of next week the ridge aloft shifts and
weakens a bit allowing for the weakness aloft to meander over the
Gulf. With this feature in relative close proximity an enhancement
to daily diurnally driven convection will take place. Went on the
higher end of CLIMO POPs through most of the medium range beyond
Saturday. With convective coverage increasing and some modestly
lower heights, temperatures will be a degree or two cooler early
next week. (Frye)

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Mainly VFR with light NNW winds less than 10 kts prevail through
the period. A couple of storms have developed NW of HDC this
afternoon and could affect the site between 18-20Z. Have a TEMPO
group to cover breezy winds and lower VIS due to heavy downpours.
Convective coverage will be isolated this afternoon with low
chances impacting many of the TAF sites. Some patchy fog may
lower VIS at MCB in the pre- dawn hours Friday morning.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1102 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Typical summertime conditions associated with high pressure over
the area. Winds will be from the north around 10 kt with 1 to 2 ft
seas through Saturday and switching to southerly, less than 10 kt,
with resultant 1 ft seas. Convection through the early weekend is
less likely, but increases later into the weekend and into the new
week. Winds in the vicinity of the convection will be stronger and
variable and can cause localized heavier seas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
MCB  73  93  72  95 /   0  20   0  20
BTR  77  92  75  95 /  10  20   0  20
ASD  75  93  74  94 /  10  10   0  20
MSY  80  91  78  93 /  10  20   0  30
GPT  75  92  75  91 /  10   0   0  30
PQL  74  93  74  93 /  10   0   0  30
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...
MARINE...DS