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000
FXUS64 KLIX 040940
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
340 AM CST Thu Mar 4 2021

.SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday)...
An upper level ridge will be building in across the southern half of
the Mississippi River Valley today as trough to the east progresses
eastward. This will cause temps to rebound back with highs reaching
to slightly exceeding climo normals. Forecast high temps are closer
to the warmer MEX guidance for this afternoon as it has been doing
better with warming up period vs the NBM. Otherwise, expect clear
skies today with possibly some clouds moving in late in the
overnight period. Probably not enough time with overcast skies to
impact lows, so stayed with rising height induced bump in temps.

Friday afternoon and evening will be the next chance for rainfall
over the local area. A shortwave tracking across the Rocky Mountains
today will dive southeast towards the lower Mississippi Valley late
Friday. It will be very positively tilted and weakening as its
opening up to be absorbed by a longwave trough situated to the
northeast. Those characteristics of the weaker wave coming in aren`t
one of a severe weather pattern. Plus, model soundings don`t even
show enough instability for lightning. However, coverage suggested
by medium range models suggest rain chances on the order of 50 to
70% during the Friday evening time frame. Expect rainfall to quickly
be shifting east Friday night and out of the CWA likely before
sunrise Saturday morning. Due to the fact that this shortwave is such
a weak amplitude system, don`t expect cooling to be particularly
impactful behind the associated cold front. In fact, temps will
probably only drop down to normal for this time of year.

MEFFER
&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Wednesday)...
Going into the day on Sunday, we enter the upstream portion of the
departing shortwave trough promoting high pressure in control of a
large majority of the eastern US down to the northern Gulf of
Mexico. Have noticed over the past few days some light reflection of
a weak shortwave trough riding across the southern Plains underneath
a larger developing ridge axis dominating the central US. With deep
troughing in place up and down the east coast, widespread subsidence
and limited moisture will keep any rain chances at a minimum with no
real reflection of this system other than some mid to upper-level
clouds. Going into next week, the big story will be a progressive SW
to NE flow developing aloft with deep troughing across the west
coast, and ridging across the east coast helping to drag
585/eventual 588dm heights up across the northern Gulf coast. This
yields a more confident feel at the potential for well above-normal
temperatures next week, especially by the middle to later part of
the week. Blends are coming in already on a warmer bias which looks
good, but wanted to jump on this a bit more as long-range guidance
remains consistent on trends. Will have no problem reaching the 80`s
come mid/later next week. Only minor change thereafter into late
week is the GFS backing off on the idea of bringing the next front
through, which makes sense given the upper-level wind pattern
becoming more zonal with time as ridging splits and settles into the
Gulf of Mexico. ECMWF coming in a bit different breaking off a
secondary low along the front which attempts to blow through on
Friday, but has not been to consistent with trends. Nevertheless,
this ridge will not last long looking way down the line into next
weekend where eventually a front will attempt to pull through the
area but wont get into details just yet so stay tuned.

KLG
&&

.AVIATION...
Expect VFR conditions for all area terminals through the forecast
period. Some patchy areas of surface fog may be possible between 08Z
and 13Z this morning, with better chances west of BTR. However,
impacts are not anticipated to any area terminals at this time with
SKC and calm winds continuing into the day on Thursday.

KLG
&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas subside this afternoon as surface high pressure
center moves in right on top of the CWA. Light southerly flow will
begin early Friday morning and rise to around 15kt later in the day
ahead of the next system that should affect the northern gulf Friday
into early Saturday. Strong northeasterly winds around 25kt could
occur over the weekend once this cold front moves through.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  69  43  70  46 /   0   0  30  50
BTR  71  46  72  48 /   0   0  30  60
ASD  72  43  73  48 /   0   0  20  70
MSY  67  49  73  53 /   0   0  20  70
GPT  67  46  70  48 /   0   0  10  60
PQL  69  42  72  47 /   0   0  10  60

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$