Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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759 FXUS64 KLIX 191720 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1220 PM CDT Mon Apr 19 2021 .AVIATION... Valid 18z Monday through 00z Wednesday... VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. Mid and high level cloud cover possible tonight as southern stream shortwave moves through. Dry low level air should preclude any restrictive ceilings. Expect winds to diminish through the afternoon and overnight. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1055 AM CDT Mon Apr 19 2021/ MORNING UPDATE... Forecast is generally on track today. Made some minor tweaks to dewpoints and hourly temperatures based on the current observational trends. Generally lowered dewpoints by a degree or two as drier air continues to mix down to the surface, and hourly temps nudged upward next hour or two, but forecast highs still appear on track. Otherwise, no significant changes expected as high pressure settles over the area. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 334 AM CDT Mon Apr 19 2021/ SYNOPSIS... Good riddance to the frontal boundary that exited our area yesterday. Most welcome sunshine yesterday that will start the drying out process after much of the area saw about 2 months worth of rain in 10 days. The front is well to the southeast of our coastal waters, with high pressure centered over Texas this morning. Low pressure over Lake Superior this morning has a cold front southwest to Colorado. Scattered to broken mid and high clouds across mainly southern portions of the area. Radar indicates there may be a few sprinkles over the coastal waters out of a mid level cloud deck, but nothing of significance. Temperatures at 3 AM CDT mainly ranged from the upper 40s north to lower 60s south. SHORT TERM (through Wednesday)... High pressure over Texas this morning will shift eastward off the east coast over the next couple of days. A strong northern stream shortwave will push the cold front to our north toward the area, as a southern stream shortwave shears out. The cold front arrives in the area late Tuesday afternoon or Tuesday night, moving off the coast Wednesday morning. Stronger high pressure will then move in from the northern plains. Really no low level moisture to work with in the short term with dew points struggling to get much above 50 before the frontal passage, and may even drop into the 30s or lower on Wednesday. Only impacts will be increases in mid and high level cloud cover late this afternoon and tonight as the southern stream shortwave passes through, and again on Tuesday night with the cold frontal passage. Will trend toward the upper end of high temperature guidance today, as has been the trend in drier air masses. Cloud cover may hold temperatures up a few degrees tonight. For Tuesday and Tuesday night, guidance is fairly well clustered and accepted. Won`t make significant shift in temperatures for Wednesday at this time. LONG TERM (Thursday and beyond)... Thursday will continue the pattern of drier conditions with cooler than normal temperatures. With clear skies and a nice breeze, this looks like a good day to be outdoors. High pressure will shift off to the east and an occluded front will settle over the area Friday night into Saturday. This will help bring showers and possibly some thunderstorms to the area once again. This should be short lived as both the ECMWF and GFS show the system moving out of the area Sunday bringing back drier pleasant conditions. Confidence in details, especially timing, of this system will improve as we near the weekend. Otherwise, the official forecast is still in agreement with the current trend so no major changes were made in the extended. MARINE... As high pressure shifts eastward today, winds should relax around midday. Current Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines through 18z look reasonable. A few locations may see winds rise above 20 knots briefly, but those conditions don`t appear to be widespread. Perhaps a bit better chance of Small Craft Advisory conditions behind the cold frontal passage on Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 72 48 76 45 / 0 10 0 0 BTR 74 53 77 48 / 0 10 0 0 ASD 75 48 77 50 / 0 10 0 0 MSY 74 59 77 55 / 0 10 0 0 GPT 75 54 75 52 / 0 10 0 0 PQL 75 49 76 51 / 0 10 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ Aviation/Morning Update...95/DM Previous Discussion...35 & TDB

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