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759
FXUS64 KLIX 191720
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1220 PM CDT Mon Apr 19 2021

.AVIATION...
Valid 18z Monday through 00z Wednesday...
VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. Mid and high
level cloud cover possible tonight as southern stream shortwave
moves through. Dry low level air should preclude any restrictive
ceilings. Expect winds to diminish through the afternoon and
overnight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1055 AM CDT Mon Apr 19 2021/

MORNING UPDATE...
Forecast is generally on track today. Made some minor tweaks to
dewpoints and hourly temperatures based on the current
observational trends. Generally lowered dewpoints by a degree or
two as drier air continues to mix down to the surface, and hourly
temps nudged upward next hour or two, but forecast highs still
appear on track. Otherwise, no significant changes expected as
high pressure settles over the area.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 334 AM CDT Mon Apr 19 2021/

SYNOPSIS...

Good riddance to the frontal boundary that exited our area
yesterday. Most welcome sunshine yesterday that will start the
drying out process after much of the area saw about 2 months worth
of rain in 10 days.

The front is well to the southeast of our coastal waters, with
high pressure centered over Texas this morning. Low pressure over
Lake Superior this morning has a cold front southwest to Colorado.
Scattered to broken mid and high clouds across mainly southern
portions of the area. Radar indicates there may be a few sprinkles
over the coastal waters out of a mid level cloud deck, but nothing
of significance. Temperatures at 3 AM CDT mainly ranged from the
upper 40s north to lower 60s south.

SHORT TERM (through Wednesday)...

High pressure over Texas this morning will shift eastward off the
east coast over the next couple of days. A strong northern stream
shortwave will push the cold front to our north toward the area,
as a southern stream shortwave shears out. The cold front arrives
in the area late Tuesday afternoon or Tuesday night, moving off
the coast Wednesday morning. Stronger high pressure will then move
in from the northern plains.

Really no low level moisture to work with in the short term with
dew points struggling to get much above 50 before the frontal
passage, and may even drop into the 30s or lower on Wednesday.
Only impacts will be increases in mid and high level cloud cover
late this afternoon and tonight as the southern stream shortwave
passes through, and again on Tuesday night with the cold frontal
passage.

Will trend toward the upper end of high temperature guidance
today, as has been the trend in drier air masses. Cloud cover may
hold temperatures up a few degrees tonight. For Tuesday and
Tuesday night, guidance is fairly well clustered and accepted.
Won`t make significant shift in temperatures for Wednesday at this
time.

LONG TERM (Thursday and beyond)...

Thursday will continue the pattern of drier conditions with cooler
than normal temperatures. With clear skies and a nice breeze, this
looks like a good day to be outdoors. High pressure will shift off
to the east and an occluded front will settle over the area Friday
night into Saturday. This will help bring showers and possibly some
thunderstorms to the area once again. This should be short lived as
both the ECMWF and GFS show the system moving out of the area
Sunday bringing back drier pleasant conditions. Confidence in
details, especially timing, of this system will improve as we
near the weekend. Otherwise, the official forecast is still in
agreement with the current trend so no major changes were made in
the extended.


MARINE...

As high pressure shifts eastward today, winds should relax around
midday. Current Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines through 18z
look reasonable. A few locations may see winds rise above 20 knots
briefly, but those conditions don`t appear to be widespread.
Perhaps a bit better chance of Small Craft Advisory conditions
behind the cold frontal passage on Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  72  48  76  45 /   0  10   0   0
BTR  74  53  77  48 /   0  10   0   0
ASD  75  48  77  50 /   0  10   0   0
MSY  74  59  77  55 /   0  10   0   0
GPT  75  54  75  52 /   0  10   0   0
PQL  75  49  76  51 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Aviation/Morning Update...95/DM
Previous Discussion...35 & TDB