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106
FXUS65 KLKN 130946
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
246 AM PDT Sun Jul 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

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Updated at 118 AM PDT Sun Jul 13 2025

* Temperatures trend warmer through Tuesday, with afternoon highs
  in the mid 90s to low 100s

* Heat Advisory in effect from 11 AM Sunday through 9 PM Tuesday

* Increasing chances of afternoon and early evening thunderstorms
  Monday through Wednesday, mainly across Northern Nevada
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.DISCUSSION...
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(Today through next Sunday)
Issued at 118 AM PDT Sun Jul 13 2025

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: High pressure continues to build over
the Western US today with temperatures trending warmer across
Nevada. Weak instability in combination with increasing mid-level
moisture will result in afternoon cumulus cloud build-ups across
portions of Northern and Central Nevada today. Not expecting any
rain or thunderstorms though there is around a 5% chance of dry
thunderstorms for both Humboldt and Southern White Pine Counties.
Mid-level moisture increases Monday mainly near and north of the
I-80 corridor where there is a 10 to 20 percent chance of
thunderstorms in the afternoon and early evening hours. Tuesday
afternoon thunderstorm chances are focused mainly across Elko
County, with a 10 percent chance of thunderstorms across Eureka
and White Pine Counties. Latest model ensembles now also
suggesting a 10 to 20 percent chance of thunderstorms Wednesday
afternoon over eastern Elko County. At this time there are no
thunderstorms in the forecast Thursday or Friday, however the
ridge remains over the region with increasing amounts of mid-level
moisture which will increase the chances for thunderstorm
activity.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence in above normal
temperatures this week, with the warmest temperatures expected
today through Tuesday. The NBM is starting to catch up with
deterministic models with respect to chances of afternoon and
early evening thunderstorms Monday through at least Wednesday,
however still had override the NBM solution for POP and Weather
grids. NBM is also likely under forecasting cloud cover this week
in areas where afternoon convection is favored.
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.AVIATION...
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(06Z TAFS)

VFR conditions are forecast at all terminals through Monday.
Light N winds with occasional gusts up to 20 kts are possible
today. Afternoon convective buildups, a few with virga, are
expected with CIGs ranging from FL100 to FL150 across northern and
central NV during the afternoons.

AMD NOT SKED at KELY due to malfunctioning VIS sensor.
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.FIRE WEATHER...

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Hot temperatures are the main forecast feature for the rest of the
weekend under building high pressure. Afternoon RH values have
returned to fire weather criteria levels this weekend though a
weak shortwave skirting the northern border Monday and Tuesday
will increase RH and dewpoints across the northern extent of zones
437/435/469/470 in the early week.

Along with that moisture availability comes isolated thunderstorm
activity. Monday afternoon dry thunderstorms will remain confined
to the northern NV border over zones 437/438/469/470. Tuesday
afternoon the thunderstorm focus shifts to zones 425/438/469/470
in northeastern and east-central NV and to a lesser extent zones
424/427 south of I-80 and north of US-50. Wednesday afternoon
thunderstorm coverage is more limited to the northeastern corner
of the state over zones 469/470. Strong winds lack the dynamics
needed under high pressure this week though winds will be gusty
and erratic in and around thunderstorm activity each afternoon.
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.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM PDT Tuesday
NVZ030-033-036>038-040-041.
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&&

$$

DISCUSSION...96
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...98