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279
FXUS66 KLOX 100017
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
517 PM PDT Thu May 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...09/214 PM.

A quiet weather pattern is expected through early next week with
near normal temperatures and no rain. Increasing night and morning
low clouds are expected across coast and valleys as onshore flow
increases. Mostly minor day to day changes in temperatures are
expected through Sunday, then cooling possible Monday and
Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...09/213 PM.

A rather bland pattern next several days with very little
impactful weather and just minor day to day temperature changes.
An upper low remains centered near the UT/CO border while high
pressure is over the Pac NW. This pattern remains more or less the
same through the weekend. Falling surface pressures to the north
is beginning to push the marine layer north around Pt Conception
and expecting low clouds and dense fog to fill in there overnight.
Similar down south but with a deeper marine inversion there won`t
be much fog except near the coastal slopes. Temperatures will
remain where they are through the weekend for the most part,
within a couple degrees with no significant wind issues other than
typically breezy onshore interior winds each afternoon.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...09/222 PM.

Early next week a weak upper low is expected to move over the area
from the west. Along with that strengthening onshore flow will
generate a stronger and earlier sea breeze each day, possibly
requiring some low end wind advisories across the interior. The
marine layer will remain a persistent feature each day, possibly
deep enough to produce some drizzle at times with slower
clearing. High temperatures will cool a degree or two each day,
mainly coast and coastal valleys.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
10/0016Z.

At 2332Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1100 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was at 2800 feet with a temperature of 20 C.

Moderate confidence in TAFs. Timing of cig arrival and dissipation
may be off by +/-2 hours, and there is a 20% chance of no cigs
developing for KBUR and KVNY. Onshore afternoon winds may be
marginally stronger than normal for most coastal sites.

KLAX...High confidence in MVFR ceilings tonight, that may
returning as early as 03Z and as late as 07Z. No significant east
wind expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in ceilings returning as early as 07Z
and as late as 12Z. Cigs will likely be between BKN008-BKN015,
but timing of flight cat changes may be off +/-2 hours.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...09/207 PM.

The rather large west to northwest swell from the past few days
is slower to subside than expected, but still on track to lower
steadily through Friday.

There is a 60 percent chance for Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds
for the offshore waters Saturday night through Sunday, and a 30
percent chance for the nearshore waters of the Central Coast.
Otherwise high confidence in winds staying under SCA through the
weekend. Similar conditions likely to continue into early next
week.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Schoenfeld
MARINE...RK
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox