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828
FXUS66 KLOX 082059
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
159 PM PDT Wed May 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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08/130 PM.

A quiet weather pattern is expected through early next week with
near normal temperatures and no rain. Increasing night and morning
low clouds are expected across coast and valleys as onshore flow
increases. Mostly minor day to day changes in temperatures are
expected through Sunday, with some cooling possible Monday and
Tuesday.
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&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...
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08/149 PM.

A very quiet weather pattern for the next week as the storm track
stays well north and east of the area. Offshore flow today ended
up being weaker than anticipated and Santa Ana winds have been on
the lighter side. May see a little pick up in northeast winds
across the mountains and interior valleys later tonight into
Thursday but all winds should be well below advisory levels.

Closer to the coast, a coastal eddy circulation will push clouds a
little farther north tonight, likely reaching the Ventura and SB
Coast overnight. Clouds also expected to push into the coastal
valleys as well. Should stay clear north of Pt Conception tonight
but falling surface pressures to the north later Thursday and
Friday should bring the marine layer back to the Central Coast by
Friday and lingering through the weekend and beyond.

Just minor day to day changes in temperatures for coast and
valleys the next few days. Farther inland a general warming trend
is expected as a weak upper low that has persisted over the Great
Basin finally shifts east.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...08/157 PM.

Not too much impactful weather conditions going into next week.
Onshore flow to the east is expected to increase steadily through
next week, eventually reaching 9+mb by mid week, which would
result in increasingly gusty west to southwest winds across the
mountains and interior. A weak upper low is expected to slide into
the area around that same time which, in combination with the
increasing onshore flow, would provide a favorable pattern for a
solid marine layer for coast and valleys during the nights and
morning and slower daytime clearing and slightly cooler
temperatures.
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&&

.AVIATION...08/1831Z.

At 16Z, the marine layer depth was around 2100 feet deep at KLAX.
The top of the inversion was near 4600 feet with a temperature
near 14 degrees Celsius.

Moderate-to-high confidence in the current forecast. Higher
confidence in flight categories for Los Angeles County terminals.
Less confidence in flight categories for terminals for north of
KNTD. Timing could be off by up to 3 hours. VFR conditions will
develop through 18Z. MVFR conditions will spread back into coastal
and valley terminals south of Point Conception after 04Z. There
is a low chance that conditions could arrive in the IFR category
for Ventura County coastal terminals and KSBA for up to the first
two hours after arrival. There is a moderate chance that MVFR
conditions could linger longer on Thursday at coastal terminals.

KLAX...VFR conditions should persist through at least 04Z. MVFR
conditions could arrive as soon as 05Z, or as late as 09Z.
Confidence higher flight categories relative to timing. There is a
30 percent chance that MVFR conditions could linger up to 4 hours
longer than the forecast indicates.

KBUR...VFR conditions should persist through at least 08Z. MVFR
conditions could arrive as soon as 09Z, or as late as 13Z.
Confidence higher flight categories relative to timing. There is a
30 percent chance that MVFR conditions could linger up to 2 hours
longer than the forecast indicates.

&&

.MARINE...08/955 AM.

There is a 60-90 percent chance of Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
conditions through at least this evening for the waters northwest
through southwest of the Channel Islands and along the Central
Coast. SCA conditions may linger longer into tonight across the
outer waters. Then, winds and seas will drop below SCA levels
through at least Saturday. There is a moderate chance of SCA level
winds developing late Saturday through Sunday, increasing to a
high chance of Sunday afternoon and night.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CA...High Surf Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT Thursday for
      zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Beach Hazards Statement in effect until midnight PDT tonight
      for zone 354. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening
      for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Thursday for
      zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
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&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Hall
MARINE...Hall
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox