Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA
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900 FXUS66 KLOX 111009 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 309 AM PDT Sat May 11 2024 .SYNOPSIS...11/1252 AM. A quiet weather pattern is expected through early next week with near normal temperatures. Widespread night and morning low clouds are expected across coast and valleys as onshore flow increases. Mostly minor day to day changes in temperatures are expected through Sunday, then cooling possible Monday and Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...11/249 AM. Moderate onshore flow and a 3000 ft marine layer have combined to bring low clouds to all of the csts and vlys. Onshore trends will help to slow the clearing in the vlys and likely eliminate the chc for clearing across much of the csts. A lower marine layer north of Pt Conception will allow for patchy dense fog. The upper low responsible for ydy`s mtn clouds and isolated TSTMs has moved far enough to the east to preclude convection this afternoon although there will likely be some CU over the mtns in the afternoon. Blended short range ensemble temperature guidance suggests some coastal/vly warming today but given the onshore trends and deep marine layer think this might a touch optimistic. The mtns and far inland areas will likely warm as hgts rise after the departing low. Look for an early return of the low clouds tonight to the cst/vly areas that experienced clearing. Even stronger onshore flow on Sunday will keep the low clouds going. Higher hgts, however, will likely squash the marine layer out of some of the vlys which will allow for warming there. The rising hgts will also bring further warming to the mtns/interior which will end up 5 to 10 degrees above normal with plenty of upper 80s and lower 90s. The ridge moves off on Monday. Hgts fall slightly and sfc pressure gradients remain about the same. The capping inversion is weaker so there should be better clearing. Max temps will change little from Sunday. .LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...11/105 AM. Long range mdls and ensembles are in fair agreement through the xtnd period. Almost all solutions show some sort of troffing over the state through the period although there is a fair amount of disagreement on the axis position and its tilt. Do not think this will be of much consequence in the middle of May. Good agreement that there will moderate to strong onshore flow to the east and moderate onshore flow to the north. Look for a persistent May Grey pattern with slow clearing and perhaps no clearing at some west facing beaches. The strong onshore gradients in the afternoon will bring breezy conditions to the mtns and far interior perhaps flirting with low end wind advisories. Max temps will cool Tue and Wed and then level off at the end of the week. Max temps will exhibit a split personality with the csts/vlys coming in 2 to 4 degrees blo normals and the mtns and far interior running 4 to 8 degrees above normal. && .AVIATION...11/0608Z. At 0530Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 2400 feet deep. The top of the inversion was at 3000 feet with a max temperature of 20 C. Moderate confidence in TAFs. Good confidence that clearing today will be similar to ydy (Friday). Flight cat transitions may be off by +/- 90 minutes. KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. IFR-MVFR transition may be occur anytime between 1530Z and 1700Z. There is a 25 percent chc of SCT conds 22Z-01Z tomorrow afternoon. No significant easterly wind component is expected. KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. VFR to MVFR transition may occur anytime between 15Z and 17Z. Good confidence that VFR transition will occur between 17Z and 19Z. && .MARINE...11/227 AM. For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. This evening for this southern outer waters and again Sunday through Monday night for all outer waters, there is a 50-70% chance of SCA winds. Then, SCA conditions are not expected through Wednesday. For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence in current forecast as winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels through at least Wednesday. For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through Wednesday, winds and seas will remain below SCA levels for most areas. The only exception will be the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel where there is a 20% chance of SCA wind this evening, and a 30-40% chance of SCA winds Sunday night and Monday. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 5 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Sunday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...Rorke AVIATION...Rorke MARINE...Munroe/Cohen/Schoenfeld SYNOPSIS...MW weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox