611
FXUS66 KLOX 121135
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
435 AM PDT Sun May 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...12/212 AM.

Quiet weather will continue through early next week with near
normal temperatures. Widespread night and morning low clouds are
expected across coast and valleys as onshore flow increases.
Mostly minor day to day changes in temperatures are expected
through Sunday, then slight cooling is likely each day through
next Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...12/302 AM.

A 3000 ft deep marine layer aided by onshore flow and a weak eddy
has brought low clouds to all of the coasts and vly. 4 to 6 mb of
onshore this afternoon will bring another day of slow clearing
with no clearing at more than few beaches. The vlys will likely
clear a little faster as hgts rise and the marine layer is
compressed. Higher hgts and faster clearing inland will lead to
some warming in the vlys and interior. The marine layer and
onshore flow will keep the pattern of below normal max temps
across the csts/vlys and above normal temps across the mtns and
interior. One twist is that there will be enough instability and
just enough moisture along with some weak PVA this afternoon to
bring about a slight chc of a TSTM over the VTA mtns and some CU
build ups else where.

A high hgt (573 dam) upper low will slowly move over the area Mon
and Tue. The onshore flow will increase each day. The May Grey
pattern will continue and there might be enough lift for some
morning drizzle as well. Most areas will see some clearing but the
west facing beaches could stay cloudy all day. Right now it looks
like there may be some afternoon build ups over the mtns but
nothing more than that. Lower hgts and stronger onshore flow will
combine to bring 1 to 3 degrees of cooling each day.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...12/328 AM.

Onshore flow will peak Wednesday and may reach 10 mb to the east.
This will greatly increase the odds of a no clear day at the
beaches and perhaps even further inland. It will be a breezy day
at the coasts and across the inland areas. Advisory level gusts
seem likely for the Antelope Vly and its foothills. Further
cooling will bring cst/vlys max temps down to 3 to 6 locally 8
degrees below normal while the inland areas will continue to run 4
to 8 degrees above normal.

Both the EC and GFS as well as their respective ensembles agree
that the area will be under some weak ridging between trofs or
upper lows to the NW and SE of the area. Onshore flow will be
weaker than on Wed but will still be mdt-stg. The marine layer
will continue to cover the csts/vlys with slow clearing across the
vlys and slow to no clearing at the beaches. Max temps will not
change much over the three day period. Gusty westerly afternoon
winds will continue.

Day 8 (next Sunday) might be interesting with a late season upper
low forecast by the EC and GFS. The GFS is stronger and closer to
Srn CA.

&&

.AVIATION...12/1134Z.

At 07Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 2000 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was at 3700 feet with a max temperature of 21 C.

Moderate confidence in TAFs. Morning flight cat changes may be off
by +/- 90 minutes. There is a 30 percent chc of flight cats being
1 category lower than fcst 11Z-15Z. There is a 20 percent chc of
afternoon or early evening clearing (20-04Z) at sites with no
clearing fcst.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 20 percent chc of
BKN008 conds through 15Z. There is a 20% chc of SCT conds
22Z-02Z. There is a 30 percent chc of a 6 kt east wind component
through 15Z.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 40 percent chance
that VFR conds are delayed until 18-19Z.

&&

.MARINE...12/238 AM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate confidence in current forecast.
For the southern outer waters, there is a 60-80 percent chance of
Small Craft Advisory (SCA) this evening into tonight and Monday
afternoon through Monday night. Otherwise, SCA conditions are not
expected through Thursday over the Outer Waters.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence in
current forecast as winds and seas are expected to remain below
SCA levels through Thursday.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, high confidence
in current forecast. Through Thursday, winds and seas will remain
below SCA levels for most areas. The only exception will be the
western third of the Santa Barbara Channel, where there is a
30-50 percent chance of SCA winds at times Sunday evening through
Monday night.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 5 PM this afternoon to 5
      AM PDT Monday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...Munroe/Rorke
MARINE...Munroe
SYNOPSIS...30

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox