Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS64 KLUB 202317 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 617 PM CDT Tue Apr 20 2021 .AVIATION... Winds will continue to weaken this evening while veering easterly. The wind will become southeasterly on Wednesday and increase modestly during the afternoon. VFR will prevail, though a thin cloud deck between 4,000 and 8,000 feet could affect the terminals on Wednesday. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 306 PM CDT Tue Apr 20 2021/ SHORT TERM... The surface pressure gradient has begun to ease behind the cold front that pushed south across the region last night. Winds will continue to gradually ease and veer more E/SE through the remainder of this afternoon and evening. A Freeze Warning has been issued for overnight, through 9am tomorrow morning due to light winds and mostly clear skies aiding radiational cooling dropping temperatures just below freezing for many locations across the South Plains, Texas Panhandle and Rolling Plains. Short term model guidance has continued to hint at the potential for increased midlevel moisture/clouds across the South Plains and Rolling Plains that might help some locations hold above freezing. West to northwest flow aloft along with transient surface ridging from the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma will keep temperatures in the 50s tomorrow across much of the region. LONG TERM... A fairly progressive pattern will exist up across southern Canada for the next few days. This is not the case across the SWRN CONUS where a split flow regime around a developing system across the Great Basin will send a batch of energy eastward into the central plains while a closed low attempts to develop across SRN CA. A low over Nunavut will drop southward and attempt to phase with the southwestern low Thursday night helping to kick it eastward and traverse our part of the country on Friday. Behind Friday`s system, mid-level flow will quickly return to a quasi-zonal regime for the weekend becoming southwesterly Sunday night as another trough digs into the west coast. Early next week, there is some disagreement on the finer details between the GFS/ECM as to the evolution/morphology of a passing shortwave with the GFS more aggressively creating a negatively tilted trough as it passes overhead. Will assume a blend until additional clarity is gained over the next few days. Return flow is expected to be in full swing Thursday evening as lee troughing increases ahead of the California low/trough. Given the dry air in place down low to our east/southeast, it will take a bit longer to get some workable moisture into the area for much more than clouds. Some stratus is expected Thursday morning but with limited vertical extent and weak lift, not seeing much opportunity for any meaningful precipitation though a few sprinkles may occur east of the I27 corridor. Despite increasing upper level support, moisture levels look to keep most of the region dry as a strong capping inversion keeps a lid on convection. Friday will see strong vertical mixing and perhaps a shot at a few virga showers east during the afternoon though even that is questionable given the lack of effective moisture where unstable conditions may lie. Would therefore expect to see storms form east of the CWFA where a more favorable environment should exist. Do want to assert that there is still some opportunity for storms to fire in our far eastern zones on Friday but the signal is just not sufficient to keep a real mention at this time. Drier air does work into the west on Friday and the latest indications are we may be dealing with some fire weather concerns across this part of the area. A dry cold front is expected Saturday morning. Thanks to the nearly zonal flow, the return flow will set up quite rapidly leading to warm advection once again on Sunday. Depending on how the next big trough ejects, Monday or Tuesday could see another round of windy conditions with perhaps our greatest fire weather concerns of this forecast period. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday for TXZ023>026- 028>044. && $$ 55/30/23

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