205
FXUS64 KLUB 301127
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
627 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Weak zonal flow will persist aloft today and tonight. Southerly
surface flow will help to bring low level moisture into the far
southeast Texas Panhandle, southeast South Plains and Rolling Plains
this morning with dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Lee
cyclogenesis will develop this afternoon across northeast New Mexico
with a sharpening of the dryline. Warm downsloping winds will give
way to above normal temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Lubbock will approach, but may fall a few degrees short, of a record
breaking high today of 94 degrees (set back in 2013). Model
inconsistencies remain on where the dryline will officially be by
the time convective temperatures are breached this afternoon.
Isolated thunderstorm development is possible along and east of the
dryline. Best chances for a storm or two to initiate will be across
the far southeastern South Plains and southern Rolling Plains with
weak convergence along the dryline. Modest instability with MLCAPE
values around 1500-2500 J/kg and shear around 20 to 30 knots will
support a strong to marginally severe thunderstorm. Primary threat
will be large hail with steep midlevel lapse rates. However, a
strong to damaging wind gust cannot be ruled out. With weak steering
flow aloft, storms that develop will be slower moving with a
potential for localized heavy rainfall and flooding. Temperatures
tonight will remain above normal and mild in the upper 50s to mid
60s with another surge of low level moisture and dewpoints in the
lower 60s across much of the area. There is a potential for a record
breaking warmest minimum temperature early tomorrow morning at
Lubbock with the previous record being 66 degrees (set back in 2020).

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Flow aloft will gradually back towards a more southwesterly
direction through the day on Wednesday as broad upper troughing
overspreads the western CONUS. Impressive low level moisture will
already be present across the region with dewpoints progged to reach
well into the 60s along and east of I-27 during the morning hours.
Weak surface troughing over northeast NM will sharpen a dryline
roughly in line with I-27/US-87 by early afternoon with impressive
MUCAPE values in excess of 3000 J/kg east of the dryline. Upper
level forcing for ascent will still be fairly weak with little in
the way of midlevel PVA or jet level flow. However, convective
temperatures should be reached by mid-late afternoon, and this
combined with modest low level convergence along the dryline
should still support scattered thunderstorm development near or
just east of the I-27 corridor during the late afternoon hours.
Despite the robust instability present, given the weak flow aloft,
deep layer shear is expected to remain modest with effective
magnitudes only peaking near or just above 30 kt. Given the very
unstable moist sector, this should still be enough to support a
few supercells capable of all hazards through the evening hours,
but at this time large hail appears to be the primary hazard.
Storms may evolve into a loosely organized cluster over the
Rolling Plains before exiting to the east early Thursday morning,
with locally heavy rainfall possible given PWATs well above one
inch.

A weak cold front will pass southward through the region Thursday
morning, with most guidance placing the front south of our area
and best moisture to our east by Thursday afternoon. This scenario
would result in a mainly dry day across the forecast area on
Thursday, but additional storms would be possible if the front
positions further north over the Rolling Plains. This still looks
unlikely though, so will keep PoPs sub-mentionable across most of
the region on Thursday with the exception of the eastern Rolling
Plains. Friday is currently also expected to remain mainly dry,
although some solutions do develop a few showers and storms within
weak upslope surface flow. Current thinking is that precipitation
will be generally sparse on Friday given a lack of any focusing
mechanism at the surface and continuing weak flow aloft, but given
the rich low level moisture in place a few isolated storms will
be possible over the Rolling Plains Friday afternoon. More
widespread showers and storms still look possible on Saturday and
Sunday as a more well-defined disturbance within the southwest
flow aloft transits overhead at the same time a secondary cold
front passes through the region. Will keep PoPs fairly broad-
brushed through the weekend given timing differences between
models, but ensemble consensus does point to a respectable
potential for measurable precipitation across most of the forecast
area this weekend with drier conditions returning early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period at all
three TAF sites. Low level wind shear around 800 feet out of the
southwest at 40 knots this morning with the increased low level
jet. Southwest surface winds will pick up this afternoon at all
three sites around 15 to 20 knots with higher gusts up to 30 knots
possible. Isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening are
expected to remain east of all the sites. The low level jet will
once again ramp up tonight with the potential return of low level
wind shear at all three sites.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...11