Area Forecast Discussion
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337 FXUS64 KLUB 171942 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 242 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 238 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Water vapor imagery this morning showed an upper level ridge over the Intermountain West and a positively tilted upper level trough extending from near Lake Superior into Ontario. As the trough deepens and the center of the ridge moves slowly westward through the short term period, the forecast area will see increasing northwesterly flow aloft. Meanwhile, the 500mb shortwave that helped initiate last night`s convection in the Texas Panhandle was located over central Oklahoma this morning. Outflow from these thunderstorms has pushed south of the CWA ahead of a cold front, which is still making its way through the southern South and Rolling Plains. Today`s environment provides two opportunities for precipitation. First, convection may form along the cold front late this afternoon as the boundary provides a source of weak convergence in an environment with CAPE up to 1500 J/kg and highs nearing convective temperatures. Based on the location of the front, the southern South and Rolling Plains have a slight chance to see precipitation this afternoon. Second, upslope flow should aid thunderstorm development late this afternoon in the high terrain of northeastern New Mexico. NNW steering flow should allow these storms to propagate towards the forecast area by late evening into the overnight. The far southwestern TXPH and the South Plains have the best chance of seeing precipitation from this second round of thunderstorms. Temperatures today and tomorrow will be more mild compared to earlier this week, with highs in the 90s this afternoon, then upper 80s and low 90s on Thursday. PoPs were lowered for tomorrow due to drying mid-levels and the lack of any source of lift save potential lingering outflow boundaries from tonight`s convection. However, thunderstorms may still propagate from New Mexico into the western South Plains Thursday evening given the current steering pattern.
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&& .LONG TERM...
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(Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 238 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Upper-level ridging will slowly slide westward late this week into the weekend as upper-level troughing expands across the central CONUS this weekend into early next week. This will keep the forecast area under northwesterly to northerly flow and allow for several chances of precipitation along with more seasonable temperatures for the long term period. With northwest flow on Thursday evening storms may propagate into the western South Plains and far southwestern Texas Panhandle. Friday afternoon will remain dry and should be the warmest day of the extended period as temperatures warm into the upper 80s to lower 90s. A shortwave will approach the region Friday night which will enhance convection across the higher terrain of northeastern New Mexico and similar to the previous night this convection should move into our forecast area during the evening and overnight hours. This convection may persist into Saturday morning as a surface cold front moves into the forecast area. Depending on how quickly this front moves south additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon and evening along and south of it. An additional shortwave is expected to rotate across the area Sunday night which should lead to another round of evening and overnight convection moving from northeastern New Mexico into West Texas. With troughing remaining over the forecast area early next week temperatures will remain slightly below average for this time of year mostly in the 80s. /WI
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&& .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1233 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period, except during possible thunderstorms this evening and overnight. Due to the location of the weak cold front by this evening, confidence is somewhat higher in storms affecting LBB and points west and south. Thus, a PROB30 for this evening has been kept for LBB at the 18Z TAF issuance. Gusty and erratic winds, lightning, and drops in visibility due to rain are expected with any thunderstorm. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...58/DF LONG TERM....58 AVIATION...58/DF