-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
320
FXUS64 KLUB 242335
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
635 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
-- Changed Discussion --
Updated at 634 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025

 - Mild tonight with dry and very warm weather continuing on
   Tuesday.

 - Chances for thunderstorms are expected to return to the South
   Plains, Rolling Plains, and far southern Texas Panhandle
   Wednesday afternoon through Friday.

 - Warm, dry, and breezy conditions this weekend will influence
   fire weather concerns Saturday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025

The overall upper level pattern will remain relatively stagnant
through tonight with northwest flow aloft persisting locally. This
comes as a weak blocking pattern persists to our west with a weak
mid/upper level low over northwestern Mexico beneath an upper ridge
centered over the Great Basin. This blocking will break down early
Tuesday morning as the ridge axis builds eastward, with the
associated subsidence resulting in dry weather persisting over West
Texas as well as a continuation of our warming trend. Initially
breezy southwesterly surface flow this afternoon will weaken this
evening as a surface trough axis shifts over our area, then become
light tonight with relatively mild overnight lows expected area-
wide. The surface trough axis is progged to remain in place over the
South Plains region during the day on Tuesday, with its associated
downslope southwesterly low level flow expected to counteract the
southward movement of a weakening cold front approaching from our
north. Regarding frontal positioning, will favor the more aggressive
NAM solution which places the front across northern portions of the
South Plains and Rolling Plains by mid-afternoon. Even with easterly
flow persisting over our northern zones behind the front,
unseasonably warm temperatures will continue given the building
heights aloft and dry near-surface airmass. Still, a modest gradient
in temperatures is expected across the forecast area on Tuesday as
highs across the southern TX Panhandle only reach into the low 80s
with highs further south approaching or just exceeding 90.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025

The forecast package remains on track this afternoon, with little to
no change made to the previous forecast. A quiet and warm start to
the week is expected as the FA remains underneath large scale
ridging through mid-week. Thereafter, we will begin to see a
shortwave trough over Baja California begin to shift east as it
tracks into portions of northern Mexico and Texas by Thursday
bringing precipitation chances back to the region. The system looks
to move out of the region by the weekend, allowing for the return of
very warm, dry, and breezy conditions. This will likely lead to the
return of Fire Weather concerns across much of the area.

Slightly cooler temperatures are expected through the middle of the
week, as we see the return of precipitation chances across our area
Wednesday through Friday. Deterministic models continue to diverge
on the exact track of this upper level system as it moves into the
region from the west. With the GFS depicting a more northern and
wetter solution with trough moving through the Big Bend Country.
While the ECMWF depicts a more southern and drier track with the
trough moving through the central Texas region, dry-slotting us from
most of the precipitation chances. One thing to note is that
ensembles look to be in better agreement with a solution similar to
the GFS, leading to the agreement of NBM slight chance to chance
PoPs across much of the FA beginning by mid-week. Moist return flow
looks to setup over the area by Tuesday evening as we see the
stalled front over the South Plains wash out and a surface low set
up over the TX/NM state line. This will allow southeasterly surface
flow to prevail over much of the FA Wednesday which will work to
pump in moisture from the Gulf of America throughout the day. As the
system tracks closer to the region, we will begin to see an increase
in mid to upper level moisture as noted by the saturated column
depicted by forecast soundings from 300 mb to 500 mb. Although we
will see moisture increase throughout the day, have decided to limit
Pops Wednesday afternoon and evening (~15%)  with much of the
instability and lift associated with the trough that is expected to
be centered over the western Big Bend country. Low-level moisture
will continue to increase through the overnight period, as we see
the column become completely saturated from the surface to upper
levels with PWATs nearing an inch for areas across the Caprock and
around 1.25" for areas off the Caprock. As the system moves closer
into the region Thursday, increased amounts of lift and instability
will be present as PVA ripple through the FA, interacting with the
present moisture. Thus leading to chances for showers and
thunderstorms across much of the FA through the end of the work week
before diminishing Friday evening as we see the system move out of
the region. As for temperatures through the week, cloud cover and
precipitation chances will help keep things on the cooler side with
daytime highs in the 70s to low 80s.

Southwest to westerly flow aloft will set up on Saturday, with the
return of southwest surface winds as lee troughing develops and
drops southward tightening the pressure gradient across the Caprock.
This in combination of increase thickness values and mostly clear
skies will allow for the warm up of temperatures Saturday in the
upper 80s to low 90s. With the return of warm, dry, and breezy
conditions we may see the return of fire weather concerns across the
region through the weekend as well.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025

VFR conditions to continue. Winds become light and bit variable
overnight. A weak frontal boundary will move into the area with a
slight increase in east-northeast winds north of the front and a
slight increase in south winds south of the front Tuesday
afternoon.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...07