Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 200114 AAA AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 914 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Canadian high pressure will build from the Great Lakes into the Northeast and Middle Atlantic through the weekend, then gradually shift offshore during the first half of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... High pressure will hold over the region through early next week and maintain cool and dry conditions. Have lowered temps a few degs out west given fairly low dewpoints early this evening. Used a blend of CONSALL, 24-hr trends, and this morning`s low temperatures. Based on this, expanded Frost Advisory eastward to include the I-81 corridor. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... After a clear and chilly start Sunday morning, expect sunny conditions for the day with temperatures maxing out during the afternoon close to what we had on Saturday. Northerly winds continue on Sunday but not quite as strong as on Saturday. Monday will be almost a repeat of Sunday`s weather as well with high pressure dominating the region. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Overall good agreement amongst guidance in regards to the extended period. A quiet stretch of weather is expected to continue throughout much of next week. Upper level ridging will induce a surface high pressure cell over the region Tuesday and Wednesday which will continue the dry weather trend. The placement of the high will also keep Teddy well offshore with no impact for the Mid- Atlantic. The high will begin to slowly migrate offshore late Thursday into Friday, which will redirect the wind to a southerly direction, bringing in warmer temperatures into the region. A cold front will then approach the region for the beginning of the weekend which, as of now, looks to be our next best chance for any precipitation. && .AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through mid-week with generally light north to northeast winds expected. Winds will slacken 22-23Z. && .MARINE... Adjusted SCAs for the lower bay to start at a later time. Model trends show winds strengthening again late tonight into early Sunday. Small craft conditions also possible Sunday night into Monday depending on how the much the pressure gradient tightens some. Small Craft Advisory conditions are possible Tuesday as surface high pressure to the north and west interacts with Teddy as it passes well to our east and northeast. Winds likely abate Wednesday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Tide levels in the Chesapeake and Tidal Potomac could reach advisory criteria later Sunday into Sunday evening. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 10 AM EDT Sunday for MDZ003-501- 502. VA...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 10 AM EDT Sunday for VAZ027-028- 030-031-503-504. WV...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 10 AM EDT Sunday for WVZ050>053- 055-501>506. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 6 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ534- 537-543. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SMZ NEAR TERM...LFR SHORT TERM...SMZ LONG TERM...MSS AVIATION...MSS/LFR MARINE...MSS/LFR TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...SMZ

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