Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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880 FXUS61 KLWX 240751 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 351 AM EDT Sat Mar 24 2018 .SYNOPSIS...Weak high pressure will be in control of the area today. Low pressure will move across the southeast states tonight. High pressure builds again over the area Sunday through Monday night. A cold front will cross the area late next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6AM SATURDAY/... An area of high pressure will continue to build overhead overnight. Dry conditions expected with unseasonably chilly temperatures. Low temperatures will range from the upper teens in the Potomac highlands to around 30 in the cities. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Low pressure will track through the Tennessee Valley today. It will pass by to the south tonight. However...a strong confluent zone between upper-level low pressure over New England and upper-level ridging over the Great Lakes should suppress the low and keep its track farther south. Much of the area will remain dry with a small portion of the central Shenandoah Valley to get a little snow as the low pressure to our south brushes this region. The snow that will move across our extreme southwestern areas will accumulate, perhaps less than an inch, but may not reach criteria to need an advisory. Chilly conditions are expected later today into tonight behind this passing low pressure system. High pressure will build in from the north tonight and Sunday. A north to northeast flow will bring dry but more cold conditions for this time of year. A weak disturbance could bring a few flurries or a snow shower across parts of eastern Maryland later tonight and into Sunday, perhaps even into the Balt/Wash metro itself, but for now have kept forecast dry. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Strong high pressure 1040+mb centered over northern New England Tue morning will be shifting east and weakening over the area Tue through Thu. Meanwhile, low pressure will track from the central Plains to the Great Lks with some moisture advancing northeastward ahead of the associated front. Rain showers could start making an appearance in our western areas as early as Tue morning with the risk slowly increasing through mid week. By Thu, the risk of showers increases significantly as moisture deepens and cdfnt approaches. The front will be slow to cross the area as it will be encountering a strong mid-upper level ridge offshore. By 12Z Sat, most ensemble members show front having cleared the area with precip chances decreasing Fri afternoon on but not completely out of the fcst. High pressure will be building over the area for the second half of next weekend. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure will build over the terminals overnight. VFR conditions are expected during this time. Low pressure will pass through the Tennessee Valley today and well to our south tonight. There will be some light snow that will occur not too far to the south of CHO terminal, mainly in the Nelson County and Augusta County vicinities. High pressure will return for Sunday through Sunday night with more VFR conditions. No flight restriction expected Monday or Tuesday. Risk of showers Tue afternoon through Wed, but flight restrictions are not anticipated. && .MARINE... High pressure will continue to build over the waters overnight. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the middle portion of the Bay and lower Tidal Potomac River overnight and this morning. Low pressure will pass by to the south tonight and a pressure surge ahead of building high pressure will cause wind gusts around SCA criteria later tonight through Sunday night. Possible SCA conditions Thu, otherwise winds 10 kt or less Tue through Wed night. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ531>533-537>541. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ534- 543. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LFR NEAR TERM...KLW SHORT TERM...KLW LONG TERM...LFR AVIATION...LFR/KLW MARINE...LFR/KLW is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.