Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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558 FXUS61 KLWX 201903 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 303 PM EDT Sun Oct 20 2019 .SYNOPSIS... The remnants of Nestor will push offshore of the Outer Banks by this evening. High pressure will briefly return for Monday. A cold front will cross the region Tuesday. High pressure will follow for Wednesday and Thursday. Another storm system may approach the Mid-Atlantic by the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Mid-level dry slot has pushed through the area already with back edge of mid-level moisture plume over the Chesapeake Bay. Light rain still lingers across eastern areas but should quickly dissipate or end by 21Z. However, a low overcast is expected to persist through the evening with partial clearing expected in some areas overnight. This could lead to some areas of dense fog. Otherwise, widespread stratus clouds expected overnight into Monday morning. Warmer tomorrow under partly sunny skies with sfc ridge in control. Warmer with highs in the mid to upper 60s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Next frontal system is expected to approach the area Tue with prefrontal showers expected to move into our area late Monday night (after 06Z Tue). Expect widespread showers Tue as cold front crosses the area and area of low pressure forms to the south and crosses the area. Rainfall amounts with this system will be lighter with amounts generally in the quarter to half inch range. Showers should exit the area Tue evening. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure will build over the region Wednesday and Thursday, before sliding offshore on Friday ahead of an approaching low pressure system out of the southeast. This will result in dry days on both Wednesday and Thursday, and even most of Friday. High temperatures each day will be in the low to mid 60s, with Thursday being the coolest of the three days. Overnight lows will be in the mid 40s on Wednesday and Thursday. Meanwhile, a very strong mid/upper level trough will be sliding out of the northern Plains and digging deep into the southeastern U.S. by the end of the week, and possibly cutting off. This upper-level energy will interact with the baroclinic zone along the Gulf coast to form an area of surface low pressure somewhere in the lower Mississippi River valley. From there, where the low goes is a little up in the air at this point. Will be dependent on if the system cuts off from the main trough axis or not, which would result in a slower moving system sliding by to our west. Whereas, if the system were to remain embedded within the main trough axis, it would likely ride up the east coast. Either way, some rain will be possible late week into the weekend. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... IFR/LIFR cigs tonight with areas of 3-5SM vsby. Conditions improving late tomorrow morning. Northerly winds 10-15kt diminishing tonight. Next frontal passage expected late Tue with showers expected late Monday night through Tuesday. VFR conditions expected on Wednesday and Thursday, as high pressure builds overhead. && .MARINE... Gale Warning issued for the southern waters as a few gusts to 34kt have been seen recently. Model trends indicate winds will should increase through 00Z tonight then diminish after midnight. SCAs may be needed again Tuesday afternoon and night on SSE winds. Small Craft Advisories may be needed on Wednesday, with some gusty winds leftover after the frontal passage. These should die down by Wednesday evening, and definitely into Thursday, as high pressure builds overhead. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Issue CF.Y for St. Marys, King George, and Prince Georges County where anomalies are up to 1.7 ft and still rising. Water levels should begin to drop late tonight as winds become more northerly. As winds go light and then southerly by late Monday, these anomalies will come back up the bay and tidal Potomac River, probably resulting in flooding through Tuesday. Offshore flow should then cause water levels to decrease by Wednesday. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM to 10 PM EDT this evening for MDZ016. Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for MDZ017. VA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM to 10 PM EDT this evening for VAZ057. WV...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Monday for ANZ531-539. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for ANZ536-538. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 7 AM EDT Monday for ANZ532-533-540>542. Gale Warning until 9 PM EDT this evening for ANZ532>534-537- 540>543. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Monday for ANZ534-537-543. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ530- 535. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LFR NEAR TERM...LFR SHORT TERM...LFR LONG TERM...CJL AVIATION...LFR/CJL MARINE...LFR/CJL TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LFR is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.