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252
FXUS61 KLWX 020754
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
354 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will settle off to our south and east today. High
pressure will remain in control through the weekend, before
progressing offshore early next week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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A cold front continues to make very slow progress southeastward
across the area early this morning, having cleared far
northwestern portions of the forecast area. Showers continue
downstream of the front across the bulk of the area, with a
single thunderstorm also ongoing across Augusta County. The
front will continue to make very slow progress southeastward
through the morning, eventually clearing southern Maryland by
around noon. Showers should come to an end from northwest to
southeast as the front passes through. This should occur by around
or shortly after daybreak along the I-95 corridor, and by noon
in southern Maryland. Mostly sunny skies are expected this
afternoon as much drier air filters in aloft behind the front.
The drier air should act to limit the development of additional
showers or storms this afternoon, but a stray storm can`t be
ruled out. Most locations should remain dry through the
afternoon and evening hours. High temperatures will reach into
the mid 80s for most. Dry conditions and mostly clear skies are
expected overnight, with low temperatures in the 60s to near 70.
Some patchy fog may be possible, especially in sheltered river
valleys.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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Upper troughing will remain in place across eastern North
America tomorrow, with an embedded shortwave rotating through
the base of the trough just to our north across Upstate NY and
PA. A few showers or even a brief thunderstorm could form
tomorrow afternoon as this disturbance tracks to our north, but
dry air in the mid-levels should keep coverage of showers and
storms extremely low, if any occur at all. The chance is
actually too low at this point to mention in the online forecast
(less than 15 percent). Mostly sunny skies are expected
tomorrow, with high temperatures in the mid-upper 80s. Dewpoints
will drop into the 60s, making it feel noticeably less humid.
Clear skies and light to calm winds are expected Thursday night.
Temperatures should drop back into the 60s, and some patchy fog
may be possible during the second half of the night.

The aforementioned upper trough will depart to our northeast off
the New England coast on Friday. Large scale subsidence behind
the departing trough will encourage high pressure to build
in at the surface. Sunny skies are expected, with high
temperatures in the mid 80s for most. Dewpoints will continue to
drop, potentially even making it into the 50s by afternoon.
This will make it feel the least humid it has in quite some time.
Clear skies are expected 4th of July evening, with temperatures
in the upper 70s and low humidity.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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An upper low will depart across the Canadian Maritimes as ridging
builds from the Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic this weekend. Ridging
will strengthen heading into early next week before weakening
heading into the middle of next week.

Rising temperatures and humidity are expected through the medium
range. Other than a pop up shower or thunderstorm near the
Appalachians Sunday afternoon/evening, the weekend looks dry. Shower
and thunderstorm chances return Monday and Tuesday of next week.
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&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Ceilings remain highly variable across the area, with some
locations staying VFR, while others are MVFR or IFR. Sub-VFR
ceilings and showers will remain possible through the remainder
of the overnight and into the first few hours of the morning.
Rain will come to an end, and conditions should improve back to
VFR at all terminals by around mid- morning. Thereafter,
prevailing VFR conditions are expected through Friday night.
A brief shower or storm could redevelop this afternoon, but the
chance of that occurring is far to low to mention in the TAFs at
this time. Winds will be light and variable today, and light out
of the northwest on Thursday and Friday.

VFR conditions are expected this weekend with light S/SE winds AOB
10 knots.
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&&

.MARINE...
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Low-end SCA gusts may be possible at times across the Middle
Bay through around daybreak. Sub-SCA level winds are expected
over the waters thereafter through Friday night. Winds should be
light and variable today, then light out of the north to
northwest on Thursday and Friday.

South to southeast winds of less than 15 knots are expected along
with dry weather this weekend.
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&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
     ANZ534-537-543.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KJP
NEAR TERM...KJP
SHORT TERM...KJP
LONG TERM...DHOF
AVIATION...DHOF/KJP
MARINE...DHOF/KJP