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131
FXUS61 KLWX 090134 AAA
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
934 PM EDT Sun Sep 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A large area of high pressure will bring cooler and drier
conditions through Monday. A warming trend is expected through
the week as the area of high pressure drifts offshore. An area
of low pressure may approach from the Tennessee River Valley by
next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --
A Freeze Warning was issued earlier for Highland and Pendleton
Counties based on current dewpoints. A Frost Advisory has been
issued for sheltered valley locations west of the Blue Ridge
Mountains overnight. Really, not much to add to the previous
discussion.

Previous afd...

A large area of surface high pressure will settle over the
Mid-Atlantic tonight. The ridge overhead will bring light to
calm winds and clear skies that promote strong radiational
cooling. Most of the region will see low temperatures in the 40s
overnight, with low to mid 50s in the major urban centers and
immediately along the tidal Potomac River and Chesapeake Bay.
Sheltered valley locations will drop into the 30s, with a few
sub-freezing readings possible in the typically coldest spots.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Large high pressure will maintain its influence of the local
weather for much of the upcoming week as it slowly drifts off
the coast. Temperatures will moderate each day, with highs in
the low to mid 80s likely by Tuesday afternoon.

A shortwave rounding the base of an upper-level low departing
the Canadian Maritimes will skirt by to the north from the Great
Lakes into the Northeast on Monday. With dry air and strong
surface high pressure in place, little to no influence is
anticipated locally other than light wind shifts.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Surface high pressure will slowly shift northeastward
throughout the Long Term period with primarily dry condtions
expected each day. Winds shift to southeasterly for Wednesday
and Thursday before shifting to easterly Friday and Saturday.
High temperatures will be in the mid 70s to mid 80s each day
with overnight lows dipping into the 50s and 60s depending on
elevation.

Cloud cover increases Thursday as surface low pressure approaches
the area from the Mississippi River Valley. There is a slight
chance of precipitation for the southern portions of the area on
Friday afternoon and overnight into Saturday with most of the
area expected to remain dry.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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VFR conditions are expected through much of the upcoming week.
Light west to northwest flow (perhaps variable or calm at
times) is anticipated overnight before resuming at 5-10 kts
Monday after daybreak. A more southerly component is possible by
Monday afternoon especially for KCHO. Light west/northwest flow
is expected Monday night into Tuesday before becoming south to
southeasterly Tuesday night; this wind shift could occur sooner
at KCHO. Winds will remain generally light out of the southeast
Wednesday into Thursday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
By this evening, winds should become light out of the west to
northwest. Any residual gusts over the northern waters should
diminish as high pressure moves overhead and diurnal mixing
ceases. Light south to southwest flow is expected Monday
afternoon and evening, becoming west to northwest again Monday
night through midday Tuesday. Winds will return to out of the
south to southeast by Tuesday night as high pressure drifts
off the coast. Southeasterly winds are expected to remain below
SCA criteria Wednesday and Thursday along with dry conditions.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tidal anomalies dropped to near or just below astronomical
normals earlier today, but were already showing signs of
rebounding early this afternoon as west to northwest winds
become lighter. With very light winds tonight, any residual
excess water near the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay will snap back
northward. This will result in near minor flooding, especially
for the typically more vulnerable shoreline locations (i.e.
Annapolis/DC SW Waterfront). Any flood threat should slowly
diminish Monday into Tuesday as continued light winds allow any
excess water to slowly drain out of the bay.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Below is a list of daily record lows for September 8-9, and the
forecast low temperatures for each day.

Climate Site                Sep 8       Low so far (as of 2 PM)
Washington-National (DCA)   52F (1988)      57F
Washington-Dulles (IAD)     43F (1984)      46F
Baltimore (BWI)             46F (1962)      46F (ties record)
Martinsburg (MRB)           42F (1988)      44F
Annapolis (NAK)             47F (1962)      55F
Hagerstown (HGR)            43F (1988)      51F
Charlottesville (CHO)       43F (1988)      46F

Climate Site                Sep 9       Forecast Low
Washington-National (DCA)   48F (1901)      55F
Washington-Dulles (IAD)     40F (1986)      41F
Baltimore (BWI)             44F (1986)      46F
Martinsburg (MRB)           40F (1986)      38F
Annapolis (NAK)             43F (1986)      53F
Hagerstown (HGR)            38F (1986)      39F
Charlottesville (CHO)       43F (1918)      43F

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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DC...None.
MD...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Monday for MDZ001-501-502.
VA...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Monday for VAZ025>031.
     Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Monday for VAZ503-504.
WV...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Monday for WVZ050>053-055-
     501>504.
     Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Monday for WVZ505-506.
MARINE...None.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...DHOF/KRR
LONG TERM...AVS/KJP
AVIATION...LFR/KJP/KRR
MARINE...LFR/KJP/KRR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...