Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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607 FXUS61 KLWX 251905 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 305 PM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018 .SYNOPSIS...A cold front will cross the area tonight. High pressure will return Thursday. Low pressure will move across the area Friday. High pressure will build across the region Saturday night and hold through the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Widespread clouds and a few showers remain over the area associated with southern stream upper low. This feature will phase with a northern stream trough moving across the eastern Great Lks tonight. Associated cold front will move across the area late this evening with NW flow developing and winds strengthening with clearing skies expected. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Weak high pressure will build over the area Thu. Next southern stream system will lift from the Gulf states Thu afternoon and move across the area Fri. Rain will overspread the area Thu night into Fri morning. Rainfall amounts from a tenth of an inch across the far NW to up to an inch in St. Marys are expected. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A weak frontal boundary will move through the region early Saturday morning. The cold front will be on the drier side and will lead to a chance of scattered showers throughout our forecast area. The upper level trough driving the surface front will move over our region later in the day Saturday into Sunday. As the upper level trough shifts further eastward, a strong surface high pressure system will build into the region from the upper midwest and the great lakes region on Sunday. Temperatures looks to rise into the upper 60s to low 70s on Saturday along with some light winds. Sunday through early next week, a strong high pressure system will remain over the region. Skies are expected to remain mostly clear with temperatures starting below average for the end of April in the low to mid 60s and slowly rising into the 70s by Tuesday. Average temperatures for the beginning of May are normally in the low 70s which means that temperatures will likely reach average range or higher for this time of the year next week. Winds look to remain light and skies mostly clear through the long term. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Cigs and vsbys gradually improving the rest of the day and this evening as NW flow strengthens. Clearing tonight. Rain moves in again Thu night and Fri morning with flight restrictions likely. A weak frontal passage early Saturday will bring increasing clouds and a chance for precipitation. SubVFR conditions will be possible if scattered showers move through the region on Saturday. VFR conditions are expected Sunday into Monday. && .MARINE... Winds will strengthen this evening with SCA conditions likely through late morning Thu. Winds diminish Thu afternoon and evening with SCA conditions likely again Fri morning. A weak frontal boundary will move our region early on Saturday. This front will be mostly dry with a few showers possible. Winds be out of the northwest and could reach up into 10 to 15 kt with higher gust possible on Saturday. A small craft advisory will likely be need for the bay areas. A strong high pressure system building over the region will lead to lighter winds. Sub small craft advisory conditions are likely Sunday into early next week as of now. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Water anomalies remain around a foot above normal. Despite, NW flow developing, water models do not show any significant negative anomalies developing. It appears Straits Point could be at or just above minor coastal flooding threshold late this evening. Hence, coastal flood advisory issued. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Thursday for MDZ017. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ530>543. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LFR NEAR TERM...LFR SHORT TERM...LFR LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...LFR/JMG MARINE...LFR/JMG TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LFR

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