Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000
FXUS61 KLWX 191342
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
942 AM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the area later this morning.
High pressure will build on Friday and remain in control through
early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Cold front has moved across the area this morning. Scattered
showers will continue to move through midday east of the Blue
Ridge, while in the mountains rain showers are expected to turn
into snow showers late this morning and remain into the night.
A break in the clouds is currently approaching the I-95
corridor, as can be seen in the visible satellite, but clouds
are expected to return shortly after it.

Cloud cover will persist through much of the day and inhibit
mixing potential somewhat. It will become windy later today
especially across far northern VA and central MD, but it appears
most gusts should stay below 40 kt likely in the 32-38 kt
range.

Clearing and turning colder tonight and still breezy with
freezing temperatures likely west of the I-95 corridor.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will build over the region into the weekend with
dry conditions. Breezy and cool with highs in the 50s. Another
night of freezing temperatures is likely with more freeze
watches/warnings likely.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure centered over the eastern Great Lakes region on Sunday
will make an east southeastward shift off the Mid Atlantic coastline
through Monday evening. During this period, expect dry conditions
and slightly below normal temperatures. Highs will top out in the
lower to middle 60s, while lows will generally fall in to the upper
30s to near 40 degrees area wide.

A dry and pleasant start to the work week is on tap Monday as high
pressure remains in control, providing mostly sunny skies and
temperatures in the lower to middle 60s. A cutoff upper level low
will reside over the southeastern U.S. early next week, with a wide
swath of precipitation likely in that region as a result.
Progression of this feature and its associated surface low diverges
between global guidance this morning. GFS maintains a more
progressive system moving northeastward and bringing the threat for
precipitation, at least to the southern portions of the CWA late
Monday night and into Tuesday. The ECMWF maintains a ridge of high
pressure over much of the Mid Atlantic into early Wednesday, before
the western Atlantic high retreats eastward. GEFS carry a similar
solution to the ECMWF output, so at this time, will carry middle of
the road precipitation chances Tuesday and Wednesday until timing
differences can be fine tuned in the follow days. Cooler than normal
temperatures can be expected during this time period with the
potential unsettled pattern and increased cloud cover.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Bkn-ovc cigs 035-050 today. Main impact will be NW winds gusting
around 35kt diminishing somewhat tonight. Gusts to 25kt expected
Fri. Winds below 10kt Sat with no weather.

VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals Sunday through Monday
as a ridge of high pressure dominates our weather features with
light winds less than 10 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Gale warning in effect today into early this evening, then SCA
overnight and all day Fri. Winds diminish below 10 kt Sat.

Sub SCA conditions forecast Sunday through Monday as a ridge of high
pressure will keep winds light over the waters.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for
     DCZ001.
MD...Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for MDZ501.
     Freeze Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for
     MDZ003>006-503>507.
VA...Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for VAZ503-504-507-
     508.
     Freeze Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for
     VAZ025>031-036>040-050>053-055-056-501-502-505>508.
WV...Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for WVZ501-503-505-
     506.
     Freeze Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for
     WVZ051>053.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT
     Friday for ANZ530>533-537-539>541.
     Gale Warning until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ530>533-537-
     539>541.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Friday
     for ANZ535-536-538-542.
     Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ535-536-538-
     542.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ534-
     543.
     Gale Warning until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ534-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...IMR/LFR
SHORT TERM...LFR
LONG TERM...BKF
AVIATION...BKF/LFR
MARINE...BKF/LFR/JMG



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