


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --006 FXUS64 KLZK 122338 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 638 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday) Issued at 114 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 After the typical mid morning lull in showers and thunderstorms...have seen quite the uptick in showers and thunderstorm development over the past 30 minutes or so. High temperatures this afternoon look to generally remain on track. Portions of Boone county this morning saw 2-3 inches of rain over about 2-3 hours in locations just west of Lead Hill. This has primed that small area for flash flooding and will bear watching as showers and thunderstorms are forecast there later today. No watch will be issued however as this area is extremely small. This afternoon and evening, showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop and move through the state. The greatest chances are expected across NW Arkansas out ahead of a stalled boundary. This boundary will keep showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through the weekend across NW parts of the state, while shower and thunderstorm potential in portions of central and SE Arkansas will be more diurnally driven. Lather, rinse, and repeat on Sunday as continued shower and thunderstorms potential will be in the forecast. Temperatures will be slightly cooler on Sunday with increased rain chances and increased cloud cover across the NW half of the state. In the SE, temperatures will be very similar to what was seen today. && .LONG TERM... (Monday Night through next Saturday) Issued at 114 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 The pattern will be somewhat unsettled to start the long term. Aloft, a positively tilted trough axis should be positioned over the region. Upper level energy associated with the trough will aid in shower and thunderstorm development in conjunction with a weak surface boundary. PoP chances should be greatest in the afternoons and evenings during periods of maximized diurnal heating. Precipitation chances should decrease heading through mid week as the aforementioned trough pivots Ewrd while at the same time an upper ridge builds and expands over the SErn CONUS. AR is anticipated to reside on the Wrn periphery of this high pressure, therefore sparse pieces of upper level energy traversing around the ridge could bring brief periods of increased PoP chances. Late in the period, some guidance suggest an abundance Gulf moisture could stream NW towards the region, but the interaction of this moisture with the eventually placement and strength of high pressure will ultimately dictate if precip actually moves into AR. There is still plenty of time to sort out the details of the late week system. The heat will build moving through mid week, with highs topping out in the mid 90s to at times upper 90s. Overnight low temperatures will have a slight uptick each day through mid week with lows in the mid/upper 70s. Combine this heat with SW moisture rich surface flow, and Apparent T`s could exceed 105 degrees across at least the Ern half of the state. Thus heat headlines may return to portions of the state by next week as high pressure moves into the region from the E. Relief from heat could come from scattered afternoon showers and storms and possibly again towards the weekend depending on track of moisture in the Gulf. During the period, if storms become strong, isolated strong wind gusts would be possible and where storms train or become stationary, isolated pockets of flash flooding is possible. Organized severe weather appears unlikely. && .AVIATION...-- Changed Discussion --(00Z TAFS) Issued at 631 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Unsettled weather will continue during the overnight hours with periods of lower ceilings, visibilities, and strong wind gusts when strong thunderstorms impact the terminals. Models are suggesting most of the showers and thunderstorms in NE Texas and Eastern Oklahoma will begin to weaken after sunset at most terminals except for KHRO and KBPK. A second round of showers and thunderstorms could impact KHOT and KADF in addition to KHRO and KBPK, but at this point do believe the best chances will remain west of the KHOT and KADF around 12z.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...-- Changed Discussion --Batesville AR 92 72 90 72 / 60 30 70 20 Camden AR 94 72 93 73 / 50 30 50 20 Harrison AR 86 69 84 69 / 80 40 70 20 Hot Springs AR 94 72 93 73 / 50 40 60 30 Little Rock AR 94 74 92 75 / 50 40 50 20 Monticello AR 94 75 93 75 / 40 20 40 10 Mount Ida AR 92 72 90 71 / 60 40 70 30 Mountain Home AR 87 70 85 70 / 80 30 70 20 Newport AR 94 73 91 73 / 60 30 60 20 Pine Bluff AR 94 73 93 74 / 40 30 40 20 Russellville AR 92 72 89 72 / 60 40 60 30 Searcy AR 93 72 91 73 / 50 30 60 20 Stuttgart AR 93 74 92 75 / 40 30 50 20-- End Changed Discussion --&& .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...65 LONG TERM....70 AVIATION...65