Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
407
FXUS64 KMAF 202329
AFDMAF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
629 PM CDT Tue Apr 20 2021
.DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
Winds will continue diminishing over the next 12 hours while
veering from a more easterly or southeasterly direction. Winds
should pick up a bit around 15Z with occasional gusts. VFR
conditions will continue the next 24 hours.
Hennig
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 200 PM CDT Tue Apr 20 2021/
DISCUSSION...
Winds are showing signs of decreasing in wake of this morning`s
strong cold front as low clouds erode west to east. Overnight, the
surface high will settle to the n/ne of the area keeping an easterly
surface component. Temp trends from today`s highs into Wed AM have
been slightly lower. Based on high resolution data and trends a
freeze is most likely from Hobbs northward, and east into Gaines and
western Dawson counties and Guadalupe Mtns. In general NAM12 is
coolest with temps and since its location of surface high is farther
w that makes sense. GFS winds are too high and models still show
that high clouds will increase toward sunrise. NBM data shows very
small spread in low temps across the Lea Co and nrn PB suggesting
high confidence in its forecast numbers. We will opt to issue freeze
warning from Hobbs northward and east to Borden Co as these are
where the lightest winds will be with the highest surface pressure,
and where high clouds will arrive the latest. High winds thru GDP
Pass still look on target when winds turn e this evening and will
upgrade to high wind warning. Otherwise high temps will be slow to
moderate, much below normal Wed and slightly below Thu. Even though
the dryline will sharpen Thu, we do not foresee convection.
Dryline/Pacific front will move e early on Fri and temps will be
close to normal before falling a few degrees Sat. Above normal temps
Sun-Tue with dry and windy/very windy conditions at times.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 35 54 43 71 / 0 0 0 0
Carlsbad 35 63 40 80 / 0 0 10 0
Dryden 44 65 52 79 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Stockton 39 64 49 80 / 0 0 0 0
Guadalupe Pass 32 59 42 73 / 0 0 10 0
Hobbs 31 58 40 76 / 0 0 10 0
Marfa 33 71 38 78 / 0 0 0 0
Midland Intl Airport 35 57 44 74 / 0 0 10 0
Odessa 35 57 45 76 / 0 0 10 0
Wink 36 63 46 80 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM MDT Wednesday for Central Lea
County-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Northern Lea
County.
TX...Freeze Warning from 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ to 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/
Wednesday for Borden-Dawson-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains
Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Scurry.
High Wind Warning until 10 AM MDT Wednesday for Guadalupe and
Delaware Mountains.
&&
$$
99/99/10