Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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407 FXUS64 KMAF 202329 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 629 PM CDT Tue Apr 20 2021 .DISCUSSION... See 00Z aviation discussion below. && .AVIATION... Winds will continue diminishing over the next 12 hours while veering from a more easterly or southeasterly direction. Winds should pick up a bit around 15Z with occasional gusts. VFR conditions will continue the next 24 hours. Hennig && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 200 PM CDT Tue Apr 20 2021/ DISCUSSION... Winds are showing signs of decreasing in wake of this morning`s strong cold front as low clouds erode west to east. Overnight, the surface high will settle to the n/ne of the area keeping an easterly surface component. Temp trends from today`s highs into Wed AM have been slightly lower. Based on high resolution data and trends a freeze is most likely from Hobbs northward, and east into Gaines and western Dawson counties and Guadalupe Mtns. In general NAM12 is coolest with temps and since its location of surface high is farther w that makes sense. GFS winds are too high and models still show that high clouds will increase toward sunrise. NBM data shows very small spread in low temps across the Lea Co and nrn PB suggesting high confidence in its forecast numbers. We will opt to issue freeze warning from Hobbs northward and east to Borden Co as these are where the lightest winds will be with the highest surface pressure, and where high clouds will arrive the latest. High winds thru GDP Pass still look on target when winds turn e this evening and will upgrade to high wind warning. Otherwise high temps will be slow to moderate, much below normal Wed and slightly below Thu. Even though the dryline will sharpen Thu, we do not foresee convection. Dryline/Pacific front will move e early on Fri and temps will be close to normal before falling a few degrees Sat. Above normal temps Sun-Tue with dry and windy/very windy conditions at times. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 35 54 43 71 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 35 63 40 80 / 0 0 10 0 Dryden 44 65 52 79 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 39 64 49 80 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 32 59 42 73 / 0 0 10 0 Hobbs 31 58 40 76 / 0 0 10 0 Marfa 33 71 38 78 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 35 57 44 74 / 0 0 10 0 Odessa 35 57 45 76 / 0 0 10 0 Wink 36 63 46 80 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM MDT Wednesday for Central Lea County-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Northern Lea County. TX...Freeze Warning from 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ to 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ Wednesday for Borden-Dawson-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Scurry. High Wind Warning until 10 AM MDT Wednesday for Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains. && $$ 99/99/10

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