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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS64 KMAF 041113
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
513 AM CST Thu Mar 4 2021

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance
Windy conditions return to the terminals this afternoon with west
winds sustained near 25 kts and gusts >30 kts likely. Winds will
continue to be strong into the night as they veer to the
northwest. Localized BLDU possible, but VFR will prevail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 208 AM CST Thu Mar 4 2021/

DISCUSSION...
WV satellite this evening shows a pretty potent upper low (ULL)
centered over the AZ/NV border, slowly churning eastward towards the
Four Corners. A signature of standing waves is located to the south
and east of the ULL as a strong jet max associated with the
disturbance crosses the higher terrain of the SW US. This is what`s
coming our way for later today as winds will be on the rise and
downsloping westerlies will increase temps across the Permian Basin
and adjacent Pecos River valley. Highs will remain locked into the
70s regionwide (sans Mtns) with 80s located over the central Permian
down to the Stockton Plateau. With the low level thermal ridge
centered from Dawson Co down to Pecos Co, temps up to 15F above
normal will be possible prior to a swift moving PAC front late in
the afternoon. Westerly winds will be whipping with >25kts sustained
for the Upper Trans Pecos out to the Mtns, leading to a plethora of
Wind Advisories and a High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe/Delaware
Mtns with blowing dust possible. Local RH`s will be on the tumble as
well thanks to the downslope component. The combo of stronger winds,
above normal temps, and low RH`s will increase fire weather concerns
for a broad stretch of the region (See more in Fire Wx section
below).

A cold front will slide south through the Panhandle and through the
forecast area by Friday AM, leading to cooler temps areawide (Closer
to normal comparatively). A pretty decent gradient wind out of the
north will be common for the northern half of the area, leading to
another potential Advisory level wind event for the Permian and SE
NM plains. By Sat/Sun, winds will decay, but cooler temps will
reside overhead with a near to below normal temp expected until
broad ridging returns for Monday, moving forward. Another broad
trough will begin entering the PAC coast by mid-next week with
southwest flow encompassing much of the region, leading to warmer
temps, persistent high cloud cover, and breezy winds for the
extended. Some hints of more active weather with regards to precip
are showing up down the line too, but a lot will be contingent on
the evolution of our western trough. Hopefully Mother Nature can
throw us a bone, otherwise, it`s high and dry for the region the
next 7 days.

FIRE WEATHER...
Fire weather concerns ramp up today as very warm, windy conditions
arrive across the region. A strong storm system will move across NM
and the TX Panhandle today bringing strong winds and very dry air
with it. Temperatures will again be above normal today with RH`s
falling to near 10 percent by this afternoon. Winds >20 mph are
expected for much of the area with strongest winds in the higher
terrain. Several hours of critical fire weather conditions should
occur across SE NM into the western Permian Basin during the
afternoon. There could also be an area of localized critical fire
weather where stronger winds intersect the LLTR across the central
Permian Basin. The caveat is that ERC values are near or just under
the 50th percentile. With the precipitation and cooler conditions we
saw earlier this week the fuels have just not had time to dry out
much. Will issue a strongly worded RFD for IA activity with a very
low threat of large/sig fires. Cooler, but still very windy
conditions are expected Friday behind a cold front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     80  42  62  37 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       73  40  66  36 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         74  47  76  43 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  86  45  67  39 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 62  37  60  36 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          72  40  60  33 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          76  34  65  30 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           81  43  64  36 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         80  43  64  36 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           79  40  68  36 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM MST this evening
     for Central Lea County-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea
     County-Southern Lea County.

     High Wind Warning from 9 AM this morning to 8 PM MST this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Wind Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CST this evening for Davis
     Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson
     County-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Reeves County Plains-Van Horn
     and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning from 9 AM this morning to 8 PM MST this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe
     and Delaware Mountains.

&&

$$

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