Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000 FXUS64 KMAF 041113 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 513 AM CST Thu Mar 4 2021 .AVIATION... 12Z TAF issuance Windy conditions return to the terminals this afternoon with west winds sustained near 25 kts and gusts >30 kts likely. Winds will continue to be strong into the night as they veer to the northwest. Localized BLDU possible, but VFR will prevail. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 208 AM CST Thu Mar 4 2021/ DISCUSSION... WV satellite this evening shows a pretty potent upper low (ULL) centered over the AZ/NV border, slowly churning eastward towards the Four Corners. A signature of standing waves is located to the south and east of the ULL as a strong jet max associated with the disturbance crosses the higher terrain of the SW US. This is what`s coming our way for later today as winds will be on the rise and downsloping westerlies will increase temps across the Permian Basin and adjacent Pecos River valley. Highs will remain locked into the 70s regionwide (sans Mtns) with 80s located over the central Permian down to the Stockton Plateau. With the low level thermal ridge centered from Dawson Co down to Pecos Co, temps up to 15F above normal will be possible prior to a swift moving PAC front late in the afternoon. Westerly winds will be whipping with >25kts sustained for the Upper Trans Pecos out to the Mtns, leading to a plethora of Wind Advisories and a High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe/Delaware Mtns with blowing dust possible. Local RH`s will be on the tumble as well thanks to the downslope component. The combo of stronger winds, above normal temps, and low RH`s will increase fire weather concerns for a broad stretch of the region (See more in Fire Wx section below). A cold front will slide south through the Panhandle and through the forecast area by Friday AM, leading to cooler temps areawide (Closer to normal comparatively). A pretty decent gradient wind out of the north will be common for the northern half of the area, leading to another potential Advisory level wind event for the Permian and SE NM plains. By Sat/Sun, winds will decay, but cooler temps will reside overhead with a near to below normal temp expected until broad ridging returns for Monday, moving forward. Another broad trough will begin entering the PAC coast by mid-next week with southwest flow encompassing much of the region, leading to warmer temps, persistent high cloud cover, and breezy winds for the extended. Some hints of more active weather with regards to precip are showing up down the line too, but a lot will be contingent on the evolution of our western trough. Hopefully Mother Nature can throw us a bone, otherwise, it`s high and dry for the region the next 7 days. FIRE WEATHER... Fire weather concerns ramp up today as very warm, windy conditions arrive across the region. A strong storm system will move across NM and the TX Panhandle today bringing strong winds and very dry air with it. Temperatures will again be above normal today with RH`s falling to near 10 percent by this afternoon. Winds >20 mph are expected for much of the area with strongest winds in the higher terrain. Several hours of critical fire weather conditions should occur across SE NM into the western Permian Basin during the afternoon. There could also be an area of localized critical fire weather where stronger winds intersect the LLTR across the central Permian Basin. The caveat is that ERC values are near or just under the 50th percentile. With the precipitation and cooler conditions we saw earlier this week the fuels have just not had time to dry out much. Will issue a strongly worded RFD for IA activity with a very low threat of large/sig fires. Cooler, but still very windy conditions are expected Friday behind a cold front. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 80 42 62 37 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 73 40 66 36 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 74 47 76 43 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 86 45 67 39 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 62 37 60 36 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 72 40 60 33 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 76 34 65 30 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 81 43 64 36 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 80 43 64 36 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 79 40 68 36 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM MST this evening for Central Lea County-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County. High Wind Warning from 9 AM this morning to 8 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County. TX...Wind Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CST this evening for Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson County-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Reeves County Plains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler. High Wind Warning from 9 AM this morning to 8 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains. && $$ 29

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