Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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Issued by NWS
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360 ACUS11 KWNS 020322 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020321 TXZ000-020515- Mesoscale Discussion 0598 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1021 PM CDT Wed May 01 2024 Areas affected...portions of central Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 173... Valid 020321Z - 020515Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 173 continues. SUMMARY...Severe threat continues in WW173. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity across portions of central Texas has been widely scattered, with cells occasionally intensifying to severe limits. Thus far reports have been limited to a few hail reports and reports of tree damage. Trends in VAD data from EWX Austin/San Antonio indicate the expected increase in the low-level jet is underway with increasing curvature of the low level hodograph and increasing storm relative helicity. Under this warm advection regime, storm mode has remained very disorganized and clustered. Forecast from the HRRR have continued to favor eventual organization of storms into an overnight MCS. Should this occur, the risk for damaging winds and possibly a tornado would increase. Given the favorable increase in wind profiles and continued favorably moist and unstable atmosphere, this area will continue to support a severe risk through the evening and overnight. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 05/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 30819891 31249774 31549578 31569534 31379477 30949460 30569478 30169520 29799714 29799844 29859877 30079901 30319910 30819891