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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS64 KMEG 191738
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1238 PM CDT Mon Apr 19 2021

.UPDATE...
Updated to include 18Z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1037 AM CDT Mon Apr 19 2021/

UPDATE...

No changes made for the morning update. Previous forecast remains
on track.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 305 AM CDT Mon Apr 19 2021/

DISCUSSION...

Currently...Clear skies and light west winds prevail across the
Mid-South with temps in the 40s. Some light fog is possible across
eastern sections before sunrise.

Today and tonight...Weak high pressure will prevail with plenty of
sunshine today and warmer temps nearing 70F or so. Winds will be
light from the west or west-northwest. Skies will be mostly clear
tonight with lows in the 40s again.

Tuesday into Wednesday night...After a sunny and mild start with
temps climbing above 70 at most places a strong cold front will
sweep through late Tuesday afternoon and during the evening.
Behind the front gusty NW winds will drive colder air into the
region with lows in the 30s by Wednesday morning. 00z model runs
are a little faster moving the front through. As a result winds
start to diminish by Wed morning which may allow some frost to
form across NW parts of the forecast areas including NE AR and the
MO Bootheel. Some guidance are suggesting possible freezing temps
across NE AR so will continue to monitor that. Wednesday will be
a chilly day as cold high pressure builds into the area with highs
in the mid to upper 50s. High pressure will settle over the
region Wednesday night with frost possible across parts of the
area by sunrise Thursday. This forecast will be complicated by
possible mid/high clouds streaming in on the fast, increasingly
zonal, flow aloft.

Thursday and Thursday night...Surface high pressure starts
shifting east with mostly dry and cool conditions. Temps will
moderate some with highs in the lower to mid 60s and lows in the
upper 30s to mid 40s.

Friday into the weekend...The 00z ECMWF is showing rock solid
consistency with progressive trough moving through Friday night
into Saturday. The GFS is backing off its previous split flow
solution and trending toward the ECMWF. Best window for rain looks
to be Friday night into Saturday with high pressure and dry
weather for Sunday. Much warmer weather looks to return early next
week.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFs

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. W winds
between 4-7 kts will become light tonight and increase to 7-11 kts
at MEM/MKL/JBR on Tuesday.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$