Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMEG 021607 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1007 AM CST Tue Mar 2 2021 .UPDATE...
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10am Update Some light rain showers are possible today assoicated with an upper level low pressure system moving across the area. Any rain should be light and should not cause any additional flooding problems. With the ground saturated from recent rain and any rain that happens today plus clouds clearing late tonight it is possible we see some areas of patchy fog and possibly some areas of freezing fog especially in west TN where winds go calm. Temperatures today into the low 50`s and low to mid 30`s overnight. Rest of forecast remains on track. SMW
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&& .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 309 AM CST Tue Mar 2 2021/ DISCUSSION... An upper level low pressure system will move over the Mid-South today. Rain will begin spreading north this morning with best chances occurring along and south of Interstate 40. QPF will be light with highest amounts ranging from 0.25 to 0.30 inches. Thus, the rain should not pose any additional flooding problems. Highs will be in the mid 40s to lower 50s. With the ground remaining saturated across the area, fog may be a concern later tonight as clouds begin to clear behind the departing upper level low pressure system. Have put mention of patchy fog or freezing fog in the forecast for now for portions of West Tennessee after midnight where the winds will likely go calm. Lows will be in the lower to mid 30s. Tranquil weather will occur from Wednesday through Thursday Night as high pressure settles over the region. Temperatures will moderate through the period with highs returning to the mid to upper 60s by Thursday. The only other chance for rain in the 7 day forecast will occur on Friday as another upper level low pressure system moves into the region. The system will be weakening as it does with the upper low opening back up to an upper trof. This will result in only small chances for rain to occur with best chances occurring along a corridor from Forrest City, Arkansas to near Water Valley, Mississippi. High pressure will rebuild into the area for next weekend. Dry conditions will occur with highs ranging from the mid 50s to the mid 60s. The high shift will east by Monday allowing for southerly winds to bring even warmer temperatures to the area. KRM && .AVIATION... /12z TAFs/ Showers will develop today, mainly along/south of I-40. Rain chances will be greatest at TUP but will remain relatively light as cloud bases will remain above 6 kft across most of the area. That said, MVFR ceilings are expected to develop in north MS for a few hours this afternoon into the early evening but will lift as rain moves off to the east around sunset. We`re watching the potential for fog overnight as skies clear out and winds diminish. The soil remains very moist from recent rainfall and these are good conditions for fog development. Expect light winds throughout the TAF period. MJ && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$

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