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529
FXUS64 KMEG 130042
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
742 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
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Updated at 742 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

- Scattered shower and thunderstorms chances continue with a 30%
  to 50% chance each day. Some storms could produce heavy
  rainfall and strong winds.

- Hot and humid conditions are expected across the Mid-South, with
  high temperatures generally in the low to mid 90s and heat index
  values at or above 100 degrees. Heat index values could reach
  or exceed 105 degrees by the middle of next week.
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&&

.UPDATE...
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Issued at 742 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Convection continues to move slowly east across the Mid-South this
evening, mainly affecting areas north of I-40. This activity has
developed in a hot/unstable air mass but should see a gradual
downturn after sunset given the stabilization of the boundary
layer and weak deep-layer shear. That said, some of this activity
may persist for a few more hours along and north of the outflow
boundary that currently extends from Cross County (AR) into Gibson
County (TN). Farther south, convection is much more isolated. PoPs
were increased for the next few hours and some patchy fog was
included overnight for the some of the river valleys in West TN
and northeast MS.

MJ
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&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Friday)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Warm and humid weather is set to continue ahead of a
cold/stationary front currently across the lower Midwest. A
shortwave trough over the Great Lakes will continue moving east
with high pressure remaining over the Mid-South for the next
several days. Extending south through the Midwest, a
cold/stationary front currently sits just north of the region. As
highs swell into the low 90s this afternoon, storms will form
along and south of this boundary, posing a marginal damaging wind
threat. Storms are expected to be diurnally driven and gradually
weakening after sunset. Similar weather is expected tomorrow with
lower confidence in the coverage of damaging winds from afternoon
thunderstorms.

Into next week, ridging will remain in place over the southern
CONUS as upper troughing refuses to drop south of the Ohio River.
As such, highs will continue to climb moving through the week,
eventually reaching into the middle to upper 90s Wednesday through
the end of the period. Heat indices are expected to be rising in
tandem towards 105+ F which is increasing concerns for a Heat
Advisory later in the week, especially across Mississippi and
Eastern Arkansas. According to ensembles, PWATs will remain at or
above 1.75" through this portion of the period, suggesting
reasonably high confidence in daily scattered afternoon showers.
These rains could keep areas from reaching advisory criteria,
adding some complexity to the heat forecast through the end of the
week. However, this airmass will still be very hot and humid,
even if it is below a heat index of 105.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Showers and thunderstorms are moving across the airspace. JBR,
MEM, and MKL have the best chance of direct terminal impacts with
low confidence of thunderstorm coverage at TUP. Short lived
reductions in visbys and gusty winds are likely in any storms.
Southerly winds continue through the period with diurnal thunder
chances returning tomorrow afternoon.

DNM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

No fire weather concerns are anticipated through the forecast
period. Hot and humid weather will keep MinRH values above 40%
with winds gusting to around 20 knots through this afternoon.
Thunderstorms are expected this evening with a marginal threat of
damaging winds, which will gradually decrease in coverage after
sunset. Similar conditions are expected tomorrow through the end
of the forecast period.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...DNM