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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS64 KMEG 021607
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1007 AM CST Tue Mar 2 2021

.UPDATE...

-- Changed Discussion --
10am Update

Some light rain showers are possible today assoicated with an upper
level low pressure system moving across the area. Any rain should be
light and should not cause any additional flooding problems. With
the ground saturated from recent rain and any rain that happens
today plus clouds clearing late tonight it is possible we see some
areas of patchy fog and possibly some areas of freezing fog
especially in west TN where winds go calm. Temperatures today into
the low 50`s and low to mid 30`s overnight. Rest of forecast remains
on track.

SMW
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 309 AM CST Tue Mar 2 2021/

DISCUSSION...

An upper level low pressure system will move over the Mid-South
today. Rain will begin spreading north this morning with best
chances occurring along and south of Interstate 40. QPF will be
light with highest amounts ranging from 0.25 to 0.30 inches. Thus,
the rain should not pose any additional flooding problems. Highs
will be in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

With the ground remaining saturated across the area, fog may be a
concern later tonight as clouds begin to clear behind the
departing upper level low pressure system.  Have put mention of
patchy fog or freezing fog in the forecast for now for portions
of West Tennessee after midnight where the winds will likely go
calm. Lows will be in the lower to mid 30s.

Tranquil weather will occur from Wednesday through Thursday Night
as high pressure settles over the region. Temperatures will
moderate through the period with highs returning to the mid to
upper 60s by Thursday.

The only other chance for rain in the 7 day forecast will occur on
Friday as another upper level low pressure system moves into the
region. The system will be weakening as it does with the upper low
opening back up to an upper trof. This will result in only small
chances for rain to occur with best chances occurring along a
corridor from Forrest City, Arkansas to near Water Valley,
Mississippi.

High pressure will rebuild into the area for next weekend. Dry
conditions will occur with highs ranging from the mid 50s to the
mid 60s. The high shift will east by Monday allowing for southerly
winds to bring even warmer temperatures to the area.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...
/12z TAFs/

Showers will develop today, mainly along/south of I-40. Rain
chances will be greatest at TUP but will remain relatively light
as cloud bases will remain above 6 kft across most of the area.
That said, MVFR ceilings are expected to develop in north MS for a
few hours this afternoon into the early evening but will lift as
rain moves off to the east around sunset. We`re watching the
potential for fog overnight as skies clear out and winds diminish.
The soil remains very moist from recent rainfall and these are
good conditions for fog development. Expect light winds throughout
the TAF period.

MJ


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$