Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMEG 191738 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1238 PM CDT Mon Apr 19 2021 .UPDATE... Updated to include 18Z Aviation Discussion. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1037 AM CDT Mon Apr 19 2021/ UPDATE... No changes made for the morning update. Previous forecast remains on track. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 305 AM CDT Mon Apr 19 2021/ DISCUSSION... Currently...Clear skies and light west winds prevail across the Mid-South with temps in the 40s. Some light fog is possible across eastern sections before sunrise. Today and tonight...Weak high pressure will prevail with plenty of sunshine today and warmer temps nearing 70F or so. Winds will be light from the west or west-northwest. Skies will be mostly clear tonight with lows in the 40s again. Tuesday into Wednesday night...After a sunny and mild start with temps climbing above 70 at most places a strong cold front will sweep through late Tuesday afternoon and during the evening. Behind the front gusty NW winds will drive colder air into the region with lows in the 30s by Wednesday morning. 00z model runs are a little faster moving the front through. As a result winds start to diminish by Wed morning which may allow some frost to form across NW parts of the forecast areas including NE AR and the MO Bootheel. Some guidance are suggesting possible freezing temps across NE AR so will continue to monitor that. Wednesday will be a chilly day as cold high pressure builds into the area with highs in the mid to upper 50s. High pressure will settle over the region Wednesday night with frost possible across parts of the area by sunrise Thursday. This forecast will be complicated by possible mid/high clouds streaming in on the fast, increasingly zonal, flow aloft. Thursday and Thursday night...Surface high pressure starts shifting east with mostly dry and cool conditions. Temps will moderate some with highs in the lower to mid 60s and lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Friday into the weekend...The 00z ECMWF is showing rock solid consistency with progressive trough moving through Friday night into Saturday. The GFS is backing off its previous split flow solution and trending toward the ECMWF. Best window for rain looks to be Friday night into Saturday with high pressure and dry weather for Sunday. Much warmer weather looks to return early next week. SJM && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFs VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. W winds between 4-7 kts will become light tonight and increase to 7-11 kts at MEM/MKL/JBR on Tuesday. CJC && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$

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