Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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531 FXUS64 KMEG 292042 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 342 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 330 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through this evening as a cold front moves across the region. High pressure will build in across the Mid-South for Tuesday and Wednesday leading to dry conditions and above normal temperatures each day. Showers and thunderstorms will return to the region on Thursday and linger through Friday as a front stalls in the area. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are possible this weekend as warm and humid conditions remain over the region. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Sunday) Issued at 330 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Showers and scattered thunderstorms are ongoing across much of west Tennessee and north Mississippi at this hour. Another line of storms has developed over north central Arkansas along a cold front. Aloft, a well-defined shortwave was digging near the ArkLaTex region. This wave will help push the cold front through the entire Mid-South by tomorrow morning. There is the potential for some heavy rainfall this afternoon, mainly east of the Mississippi River, where good poleward moisture transport and instability match up reasonably well. 1 to 2 inches of rainfall is possible with locally higher amounts. Upper level high pressure will build in across the Lower Mississippi Valley for Tuesday and Wednesday, leading to dry and slightly above normal temperatures. Expect highs in the low to mid 80s each day with lows in the upper 50s and lower 60s. A southern stream impulse will quickly translate east across Baja California on Wednesday and lift northeast into the Lower Mississippi Valley on Thursday. This will spawn scattered showers and thunderstorms during the day for western portions of the forecast area. A large and nearly stationary upper low over the Northern Plains will eject several pieces of energy across the Mississippi Valley through this weekend. The first piece of energy will spawn a surface low across the northern Plains on Thursday afternoon and help to drive a cold front into the Lower Mississippi Valley through early Friday morning. The parent low will lift north into Canada and orphan the front over the Mid-South on Friday. The boundary will likely be a trigger for renewed convection on Friday afternoon due to daytime heating. The weather pattern will remain muddled through the weekend, as a warm and unstable air remains over the region, but upper level forcing remains weak. It was hard to argue against NBM 30-40 PoPs each afternoon, due to weak perturbations embedded in nearly zonal flow aloft. Organized weather does not look likely over the next week or so as the polar jet remains displaced to the north and west of our region. AC3 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1250 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 A disorganized line of pre-frontal showers is currently traversing the region with very little lightning activity. However, as the actual front catches up later this afternoon/evening, much stronger forcing will lead to the development of more widespread clusters of showers with embedded thunderstorms. TEMPO groups were added to all sites with TSRA as these clusters move west to east through sunset with briefly reduced ceilings and/or visibilities. Guidance is still fairly split on the potential for low ceilings after the front overnight; the HRRR paints a broad swath of IFR to LIFR ceilings while the HREF as a whole and MOS guidance are more on the optimistic side with MVFR ceilings and more of a scattered lower deck. There is fairly low confidence in the presence of IFR ceilings anywhere but JBR overnight. Winds should start out southerly this afternoon and gradually shift to the north tomorrow morning behind the front, generally remaining in the 6-8 kt range. CAD && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3 AVIATION...CAD