141
FXUS64 KMEG 021712
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1212 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Quick update to bump up PoPs across the western portions of the
Mid-South and to also remove the Marginal Risk of severe storms
from the forecast and Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook (gHWO).

Convective coverage will increase substantially by mid to late
afternoon as a shortwave impinges upon the Mid-South region from
the west. A couple of strong storms are still possible, mainly
over southeast Arkansas and northwest Mississippi in the short
term, where up to 2000 J/kg of SBCAPE is already available. With
less than 20 knots of available shear, small hail and gusty winds
are the main threats with any storms that shoot up and come back
down.

The rest of the forecast is in good shape with temperatures
climbing into the mid to upper 80s and increasing PoPs this
afternoon.

AC3

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 214 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

A warm and unsettled pattern will begin to take shape today. As a
slow moving cold front approaches and eventually stalls out,
scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible starting this
afternoon through the weekend. The unsettled pattern will continue
into mid next week as a series of fronts and shortwave troughs
move through the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 214 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Current GOES satellite depicts a cirrus shield overspreading the
area associated with fallout from ongoing convection over the
Central and Southern Plains. As a cold front slowly approaches
from the west later this morning, showers and thunderstorms will
pick up in coverage and intensity along the decaying MCS from the
Plains. By mid to late afternoon, a few thunderstorms may still
be able to hang onto enough instability to produce a few damaging
wind gusts or perhaps some hail. Kinematics look fairly bleak (~30
kts bulk shear via the HREF), so updrafts are not expected to
have much of an organized structure.

If any storms do become strong to severe this afternoon, it would
likely be west of the Mississippi River. Despite all this cloud
cover and convection today, we still have the potential to have
our first 90 degree day of the year. NBM 90th percentile suggests
that the warmest reasonable high temperatures this afternoon are
in the low 90s for much of the area.

The aforementioned cold front is expected to stall out just to our
northwest by Friday morning. Forecast surface analyses show a
shortwave trough kicking out ahead of the front, keeping the
potential for widespread showers and thunderstorms on the table
through Friday and Saturday afternoons. Dynamics look far less
impressive through the remainder of the weekend, but expect at
least a 50% chance of rain through Sunday evening associated with
mesoscale and/or diurnal processes.

A warm front finally lifts north on Monday morning, nudging
temperatures back into the mid to upper 80s for the next several
days. In addition, southerly flow returns Monday and will allow
warm, moist Gulf Coast air to contribute to further thunderstorm
potential each day next week. The pattern looks generally
unsettled well into midweek; expect 2-3 inches of rain total over
the next 7 days.

CAD

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 603 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

VFR conditions expected to prevail at TAF sites today, then gradually
deteriorating into tonight as a surface low moves northeast
through the Lower Mississippi Valley. SHRA/VCTS possible at
JBR/MEM by late afternoon then gradually spreading into remaining
sites this evening. Confidence in better TS chances remains too
low for inclusion of any TEMPOS in this TAF set. High-Res Ensemble
guidance suggests best chances for MVFR/IFR conditions will be
mainly later this evening into early Friday.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD
AVIATION...CJC