389
FXUS62 KMFL 091654
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1254 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES, FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Friday)
Issued at 1212 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024

The H5 ridge axis is positioned over South Florida today
maintains the warm, dry, and stable airmass over the area. At the
surface we reside on the western periphery of Atlantic high
pressure supporting generally southerly flow, with the zonal
component of the flow largely influence by the local sea-breeze
circulations. This setup will result in another day of warm
temperatures and near-zero measurable rain chances, with highs
largely reaching the 90s apart from the immediate east coast.
Can`t completely rule out a few sprinkles over the interior (near
the area of max sea-breeze convergence), but given the dry/stable
mid-lvls suspect vertical development of the cu field will be
quite limited. Overnight lows will remain mild (in the low to mid
70s), with the only minor forecast concern being some stratus
potential near the Lake.

The ridge will flatten heading into Friday with surface low
pressure moving into the SE US. A warm prefrontal regime will
prevail over SFL, with 850mb temps around 20C likely, which would
be near the climatological maximum observed for this time of year.
Consequently warm to near record temperatures can be expected with
highs in the mid to upper 90s over the Interior, with lower 90s
near the immediate coast. For the east coast metro the
question will be how far inland and how quickly the sea breeze
pushes inland. For locations where the winds remain SWrly most of
the day, highs in the mid 90s are likely, while for locations that
experience an earlier sea breeze passage highs will likely be
around 90. As a slight consolation the airmass will remain
relatively dry so peak heat indices will only be marginally higher
than air temperatures, i.e. largely in the upper 90s to around
100.

Although multiple MCSs are currently progged in the warm sector
south of the front on Friday, the current consensus is that the
lingering presence of the ridge should mostly force those to track
either north of the area, or weaken them significantly as they
approach our area. As a result will keep PoPs unmentionable on
Friday, but it isn`t totally impossible the Lake region gets
clipped later in the day by one of these decaying MCSs.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 253 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

The long anticipated weak cold front arrives in Florida on
Saturday morning before stalling over the Peninsula. This boundary
will be a highly weak one and thus not have strong forcing, plus
the upper level pattern will be lacking energy. Therefore, limited
convective showers and storms are expected across the region for
the weekend. There is likely to be isolated convection due to
sufficient moisture (PWATs ~ 1.2-1.5") and some locations could
reach their local convective temperature with warm diurnal heating
on the menu on Saturday. However, cloud coverage with the
approaching front could prevent this warming. The strength of the
cap, along with above normal temperatures and plentiful moisture,
will be the determining factors. Weak ridging will rebuild on
Sunday, inhibiting rain chances for Sunday.

While a relatively benign upper level pattern is projected to
remain in place through the middle of next week, there are
several opportunities for quick impulses to interact with the
adequate moisture pooling and hot temperatures. Thus, with the
daily sea breezes, there is chance for daily isolated to scattered
convective showers and thunderstorms.

The temperatures will continue to trend above normal with daily
highs, through the long term, will reach the low to mid 90s for
most locations. Despite the frontal passage, Saturday will is
forecast to remain warm due to it`s weakness. Heat indices have
the potential to climb into the 100s on several days through the
long term period. However, at this moment, no counties are
expected to reach heat advisory criteria.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1212 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. SErly
winds 10-15kts will prevail this afternoon apart from KAPF where
SWrly winds can be expected. Winds will trend light and variable
tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1212 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024

A moderate to fresh southerly wind flow across the local waters today
will turn southwesterly on Friday as a frontal boundary approaches
the region. Winds over the Atlantic waters will likely reach
cautionary to near-hazardous conditions Friday evening into Friday
night. There will be a chance of some showers and thunderstorms on
Saturday as the frontal boundary moves into the region.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1212 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024

An elevated risk of rip currents will persist for the Palm Beach
coastline through Friday. As winds trend more westerly over the
weekend the risk will decrease over the Atlantic coastline.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1212 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024

As a drier air mass filters into the region, minimum relative
humidity values each afternoon through the rest of the week could
range between 30 and 35 percent over the interior portions of
South Florida. This combined with the generally dry fuels could
lead to enhanced fire weather conditions across these areas,
although winds should remain below Red Flag criteria.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            75  93  76  94 /   0   0  10  30
West Kendall     72  95  73  95 /   0   0  10  30
Opa-Locka        75  95  75  95 /   0   0  10  30
Homestead        74  92  75  94 /   0   0  10  30
Fort Lauderdale  75  92  76  92 /   0   0  10  30
N Ft Lauderdale  75  94  76  93 /   0   0  10  40
Pembroke Pines   76  96  76  96 /   0   0  10  30
West Palm Beach  73  95  74  92 /   0  10  20  40
Boca Raton       74  95  75  93 /   0   0  20  40
Naples           75  90  77  88 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ168.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Carr
LONG TERM....Simmons
AVIATION...Carr