Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 271136
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
736 AM EDT Fri May 27 2022

.AVIATION(12Z TAFS)...
Mainly VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period.
Winds will increase out of the south southeast and range from 10
to 15 knots this afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
will develop near the terminals later this morning into the
afternoon hours before pushing towards the interior. At KAPF,
winds will shift to the southwest in the afternoon as a Gulf
breeze develops.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 310 AM EDT Fri May 27 2022)

SHORT TERM (Through Saturday)...

A complex upper level pattern is forecast to evolve during the
short term period as the northern stream closed low opens up and
moves from the Midwest through the Northeast. In its wake some
superpositioning of a southern stream wave and residual +PV from
the departing low will deepen a new upper trough over the
Southeast.

The veering low-level flow and increasing deep layer moisture
associated with the Midwest centered low and eastward shifting
Atlantic ridge will yield a more favorable environment for
convection today. Expect a scattering of showers this morning into
the early afternoon in the WAA regime across south Florida, with
more robust convection developing across the interior later in the
day as the east and west coast seabreezes collide. This convection
will generally drift eastward as low level flow continues to veer
ahead of an approaching frontal boundary.

On Saturday, the front will be the closest to south Florida. Low-
level flow will be more southwesterly, focusing seabreeze
convection across the eastern half of the region. Additionally,
convection from the front just to our north may drift into south
Florida interacting with the seabreeze convection and providing an
opportunity for training or slow moving cells.

Low 90s will be common each day, with heat indices climbing into
the middle to upper 90s.

LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...

While the mid-level pattern is seemingly benign with ridging
prevailing through the period, the upper level pattern remains
complex. While there are still considerable differences between
the GFS and ECMWF, the general idea is that more southern stream
+PV will entangle with the developing trough and cut off a TUTT
near the FL/GA coasts. The quasi-stationary TUTT will provide a
favorable region for convective development to its southeast. In
fact, several Euro ensemble members and the operational Euro/GFS
develop a surface wave in the western Atlantic early next week.

At the very least, locally this would mean plentiful moisture
being advected into south Florida with widespread seabreeze
convection. Depending upon when and where the TUTT actually sets
up (and subsequently the surface reflection), we could have the
potential for more widespread shower coverage with the potential
for heavy rain at times. At the moment, QPF clusters that show the
highest QPF are generally associated with the ECMWF which has
convection from the TUTT developing closer to the FL coast and
moving inland with a wave early next week. The GFS favors more
convection further offshore and an active seabreeze pattern over
land. Just outside of this forecast period, things really get fun
as potential CAG develops in the SW Gulf and drifts eastward.

There is high confidence in a wet pattern evolving late this
weekend and continuing through next week.

AVIATION(06Z TAFS)...

A few showers are moving into the FLL/OPF/FXE area as the cycle
begins. Covered these with TEMPO/VCs respectively. Additional
showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will develop later this
afternoon. Similarly covered with VCs as confidence in timing and
locations are a bit low at this range. Short fused TEMPOs may be
needed. Otherwise, moderate easterly winds will continue, except
for APF where westerly winds are expected behind the afternoon
Gulf Breeze. Outside of convection expect VFR conditions.

MARINE...

Winds and seas will continue calming today, with light winds and
low seas forecast by the weekend and lasting into next week. Late
this weekend into early next week, showers and thunderstorms will
become widespread, especially across Atlantic waters.

BEACHES...

A high risk for rip currents is still expected down the east coast
today as winds continue to subside. An elevated rip current threat
is still expected through the weekend and into next week as winds
turn onshore once again.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            77  91  77  89 /  10  60  40  60
West Kendall     74  91  73  89 /  10  50  40  60
Opa-Locka        75  91  74  89 /  10  60  40  60
Homestead        74  89  74  88 /  10  50  50  60
Fort Lauderdale  77  88  75  87 /  20  60  40  60
N Ft Lauderdale  77  88  74  87 /  20  60  40  60
Pembroke Pines   75  91  74  89 /  10  60  40  60
West Palm Beach  74  88  73  87 /  20  70  50  60
Boca Raton       75  90  74  88 /  20  70  50  60
Naples           76  88  74  90 /  30  50  30  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Aviation...CWC

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