Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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686
FXUS62 KMFL 242000
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
400 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Thursday)
Issued at 1225 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024

High pressure over the Western Atlantic waters extending back
into the Florida Peninsula will remain nearly stationary through
Thursday. At the same time, the Saharan Dust will also be slowing
moving northwest through South Florida. This weather pattern will
keep the moderate to breezy easterly wind flow in place over
South Florida. The POPs will also remain in the isolated to low
end scattered range over the eastern areas of South Florida, while
the western areas will remain in the scattered to numerous range.

There could also be a few strong storms over the western areas of
South Florida this afternoon and again Thursday afternoon due to
the sea breeze collisions and the Saharan Dust. The primary
impacts will be lightning strikes, gusty winds and locally heavy
rainfall.

Lows tonight will only fall into the mid to upper 70s over most
areas except around 80 over the east coast metro areas. However,
the heat indices over Miami-Dade and Broward Counties will remain
mostly in the 90s and will only get down to around 90 by sunrise
Thursday. These high heat indices will not allow much relief to
people outside tonight.

Highs on Thursday will once again get into the lower to mid 90s
over most areas, except for east coastal areas where it will be
around 90. However, the heat indices on Thursday will be back into
the 105 to 108 range over South Florida.

Therefore, the Heat Advisory will be extended into Thursday for
Miami-Dade and Broward Counties.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 246 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024

Models depict high pressure expanding across the region and bring
more stable conditions to start the long term. Main convection
mechanism will again be the afternoon sea breezes, with a prevailing
easterly wind favoring late morning/early afternoon showers and
thunderstorms over the eastern half of soFlo, then pushing interior
and west in the late afternoon and early evening hours.

For the weekend, models show a potential weak low aloft moving
across the state, while moisture advection with winds shifting to
the SE may combine to raise POPs into the 60 percent range area-
wide. Therefore, expect scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms during the weekend with sea breeze and outflow
boundaries becoming focal points for the deeper convection. And
while there will be some ingredients for strong thunderstorms to
develop, the main threat will remain localized flooding with the
heaviest downpours. By early Monday, long range models suggest that
another round of Saharan dust may arrive and bring impacts to air
quality.

Max temps should remain near 90 around east coast locations, and low-
mid 90s for interior and west coast areas. Shower activity may keep
temps a little cooler, but it will depend on where and when they
form. Heat indices will likely approach Heat Advisory criteria each
day.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024

Easterly winds will continue over all of South Florida TAF sites
through tonight. Wind speeds will be around 15 knots with gusts up
to 25 knots this afternoon before decreasing to 5 to 10 knots
tonight. The only exception to this is over KAPF where it will
become light and variable tonight. Dry conditions for east coast
TAF sites through tonight except VCTS at KAPF through 00Z. Ceiling
and Vis in VFR conditions but could fall down into MVFR or IFR
conditions with the passage of the thunderstorms at KAPF.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1225 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024

Moderate to breezy easterly winds will continue over South Florida
waters through Thursday before decreasing to more of a light to
moderate conditions for late this week into this weekend. Seas
will be 2 feet or less over South Florida waters through this
weekend but could be higher in any showers or thunderstorms.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1225 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024

The moderate to breezy easterly winds will continue the threat of
rip currents along the east coast beaches of South Florida through
at least Thursday evening. There is a High Risk of Rip Currents in
effect through tonight but could be extended in later this
afternoon for Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            81  91  80  91 /  20  30  20  50
West Kendall     79  91  77  92 /  20  30  20  60
Opa-Locka        81  92  80  93 /  20  30  20  60
Homestead        81  90  80  91 /  20  20  20  50
Fort Lauderdale  81  89  80  90 /  20  20  20  50
N Ft Lauderdale  81  90  80  91 /  10  20  20  50
Pembroke Pines   81  94  80  94 /  20  20  20  50
West Palm Beach  80  91  79  91 /  10  20  10  40
Boca Raton       81  91  80  91 /  10  20  10  40
Naples           78  94  77  92 /  20  50  20  70

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT Thursday for FLZ071>074-172>174.

     High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BNB
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...BNB