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000
FXUS62 KMFL 290505
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
105 AM EDT Mon May 29 2023

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 727 PM EDT Sun May 28 2023

Mid-level ridging advecting over the region, allowing for warming
aloft and commensurate subsidence. Therefore dry conditions will
prevail across South Florida, though an isolated shower or two
cannot be ruled out. Overall, there are no noteworthy changes to
the forecast at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 254 PM EDT Sun May 28 2023

This holiday weekend will get a break from the extensive, wet
weather as drier air continues to lower the chances for rain and
thunderstorms. There will continue to be much lower PWATs tonight
and tomorrow, down to 1.0-1.4", with showers not expected to bring
the amount of rain we have received lately. Sea breeze boundaries
and daytime warming will give us the opportunity for isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms into the early evening tonight
for primarily the interior and east coast. Overnight, the best
chance for rain will remain over the Atlantic. Tomorrow, there
will be the opportunity for the same spotty showers and t-storm
pattern across south Florida with rain and convection driven by
the sea breezes.

The temperatures will be warm with afternoon highs reaching the
upper 80s to low 90s this afternoon and tomorrow. With the
addition of moderate relative humidity, heat indices have the
potential to reach the low to mid 90s across all of south FL both
days. Caution should be used when spending time outside and remain
hydrated. Tonight`s lows will remain in the the low 70s across
the metro and drop into the upper 60s in the interior.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 224 AM EDT Sun May 28 2023

Quasi-zonal flow aloft will keep conditions generally
dry through the first half of the workweek. A few
isolated showers and storms could develop along sea
breeze boundaries each afternoon, but more widespread
impacts are unlikely. However, the drier conditions
will be short lived as another mid-level trough begins to
develop across the Gulf of Mexico midweek, ushering in
more south/southeasterly flow and increased moisture
into the area.This could result in another wet and
stormy end of the week.

Highs next week will likely be reaching the upper 80s
lower 90s, with heat indices in the mid 90s each day.
The evenings will remain warm, with lows dropping to
the low 70s along the East Coast and mid 60s in the interior.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 104 AM EDT Mon May 29 2023

Light and variable winds early this morning, becoming westerly
5-10 kts until this afternoon when the sea-breezes kick in. Widely
SCT showers/storms possible this afternoon into early evening
which may result in brief flight restrictions.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 254 PM EDT Sun May 28 2023

Atlantic marine conditions have improved throughout the day with
much lower and drop to 3-5 foot seas. Moving into next week, the
Atlantic will be a light east-northeasterly flow with 1-3 foot
seas. Throughout the week, scattered showers and thunderstorms
will continue to be possible across all Atlantic waters, resulting
in locally rough seas and gusty winds.

Over the Gulf waters, a light to moderate north to northwesterly
flow will remain in place with seas generally ranging between 1
and 3 feet.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 254 PM EDT Sun May 28 2023

A high risk of rip currents across all Atlantic Coast beaches
continues through the remainder of the day. Early next week, the
risk of rip currents will decrease. Broward and Miami-Dade County
beaches will remain elevated, while Palm Beach County which will
remain high through Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            91  76  88  76 /  20  20  40  50
West Kendall     92  72  90  73 /  20  20  40  50
Opa-Locka        90  75  89  74 /  20  20  40  50
Homestead        90  72  87  74 /  10  20  40  50
Fort Lauderdale  88  76  86  76 /  20  20  40  50
N Ft Lauderdale  89  76  87  76 /  20  20  40  50
Pembroke Pines   90  75  88  75 /  20  20  40  50
West Palm Beach  88  74  87  74 /  20  30  40  50
Boca Raton       90  75  88  75 /  20  30  40  50
Naples           88  74  91  74 /  10  10  40  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Simmons
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION...CMF