-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
262
FXUS62 KMFL 031715
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
Issued by National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
115 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 246 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

While models depict a rather complex weather pattern dominating the
whole E CONUS on Friday, closer to the area a mid level ridge and
sfc high pressure will remain in control of the peninsula weather
during the weekend. A transient trough and associated storm
systems well to the north will flatten a bit the ridge today, with
pressure gradients again becoming a little tighter in the
afternoon hours. Thus, expect periods of easterly winds becoming
gusty, mainly over the Atlantic coast of SoFlo.

Models also keep low dew points in place with the upstream air mass,
which will help in keeping POPs/rain chances low. The only lifting
mechanism will be again afternoon sea breezes, which will serve as
focal points for limited convection to develop. But with the
stronger easterly flow, it is likely that most of the shower/storm
activity will be pushed towards the interior/western portions of
SoFlo.

The weather pattern becomes a little more favorable for afternoon
showers on Saturday as an area of enhanced moisture moves into SoFlo
from the Atlantic side. But model layer analyses keep most of the
moisture in a shallow layer around 850-700 mb, along with highest
POPs in the 25-40 percent range, favoring the Gulf coast. Any deeper
convection should again follow the enhanced lifting of sea breeze
boundaries, although a key difference Saturday afternoon is that
overall coverage of showers seems more widespread than previous
days.

Despite the better chances of rain on Saturday, temperatures will
remain warm on both days with afternoon highs in the mid to upper
80s for the Atlantic coast and interior areas, and around 90 for the
west coast of SoFlo.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 246 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

Long range models show mid-level ridging persisting across the
region, keeping the ongoing easterly wind regime over SoFlo through
much of the work week. Meanwhile, the remaining enhanced low level
moisture from the weekend will gradually dry out, with mainly single
digit POPs by mid week. Thus, expect better chances for a few
showers and an isolated storm or two on Sunday and Monday afternoon.
Again, deeper convection should follow the sea breeze boundaries as
the easterly flow push them inland.

Expect temperatures to remain around or slightly higher than
normals. Afternoon highs will reach the upper 80s to around 90
across southwest Florida and interior areas, while remaining in the
mid 80s along the east coast. Overnight lows will be in the 60s,

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 107 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

VFR flight conditions are expected to primarily prevail through the
TAF operational period at the local aerodromes. Kept VCSH at KAPF
as some isolated showers and/or weak convection across portions of
southwest Florida. Light to moderate east to east-southeasterly
flow will continue. The only exception is KAPF for a time this
afternoon where the flow becomes west-southwesterly thanks to the
influence of any of the sea breeze and any isolated showers/weak
convection in that region.

.MARINE...
Issued at 246 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

Outside of periods of gusty easterly winds, overall benign
conditions should prevail across the coastal waters through the
weekend. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are possible each
day, which could bring brief periods of rough seas and gusty winds.
Seas will generally remain at 2 to 4 feet in the Atlantic waters and
2 feet or less in the Gulf waters. Winds could peak in the 12-15 kts
range out of the east.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Miami            74  84  74  84 /  20  20  10  30
West Kendall     71  85  72  86 /  20  20  10  30
Opa-Locka        73  86  73  86 /  20  20  10  30
Homestead        73  85  73  85 /  20  20  20  30
Fort Lauderdale  74  83  74  83 /  30  20  20  30
N Ft Lauderdale  74  84  74  84 /  30  30  10  30
Pembroke Pines   73  87  73  87 /  30  20  10  20
West Palm Beach  72  84  72  84 /  20  20  10  20
Boca Raton       73  84  74  85 /  40  20  10  30
Naples           71  88  71  89 /  20  40  10  30
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for FLZ168.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM....AR
AVIATION...99