Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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959 FXUS62 KMHX 211622 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1222 PM EDT Wed Mar 21 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure off the mid Atlantic coast will strengthen this afternoon and gradually move northeast tonight and Thursday. High pressure will then build in from the northwest into the weekend. Another storm system may approach the area early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 1220 PM Wednesday...Closed mid-level low continues to drift east across Virginia at midday. Low clouds are extensive across eastern NC and temperatures have moved very little through the morning. Have lowered maximum temperatures a few degrees and still may be a bit overly optimistic given strength of the low-level wedge. Light showers will continue over many areas through the afternoon and have raised PoPs to likely, but with very light QPF totals expected. Gusty NW winds will continue this afternoon, making it feel more like January than the second day of Spring. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/... As of 400 AM Wednesday...Upper low and surface low will be moving out to NE tonight but moist cool sector will linger into evening. Models indicate light QPF threat persisting over mainly northern sections this evening with thermal profiles supporting a rain/snow mix, and will continue previous forecast with low chance POPs. Drying and decreasing clouds from SW to NE expected overnight. Min temps mainly 33-38. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 400 AM Wednesday... Thursday through Saturday...Drier airmass will filter into the region as high pressure builds in from the W and lasting through Saturday morning. Then clouds will start to increase ahead of the next system with a slight chance of afternoon showers, but confidence is low at this time. Overall, expect mostly sunny skies Thursday and Friday, then becoming partly cloudy on Saturday. Expect highs in the low 50s inland and mid/upper 40s OBX Thursday, then temps will slightly increase each day, but remain in the 50s inland and upper 40s/low 50s OBX. Overnight lows will range in the low/mid 30s inland and upper 30s/low 40s Thursday and Friday night. Saturday overnight lows are expected to be in the 40s. Saturday night through early next week... Models have a generally good agreement with the overall pattern, but minor differences with the strength shortwave energy dropping down from the Midwest towards the Carolinas. Overall, the latest model run continues to show a low pressure system developing over the Central Plains, but weakening as it moves along the frontal boundary toward the North Carolina Saturday night into Sunday. This weak low will then be pushed farther south on Sunday as a 1040+ MB high located over Quebec Canada builds farther south. Overall, North Carolina will be under a cool airmass wedged in from the north and showers across the region for Saturday night and Sunday. By Monday, high pressure from the north is expected to dominate the region through midweek. Expect highs to range in the 50s inland and mid/upper 40s to around 50 degrees along the OBX. Overnight lows are expected to range in the 30s to mid 40s closer to the coast. && .AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Short Term /through 18Z Thursday/... As of 1220 PM Wednesday...IFR with occasional MVFR ceilings will remain locked in through the remainder of the day into tonight as upper level low rotates across Virginia and moves offshore later tonight. Downsloping flow should gradually start to erode some of the lower clouds after 09Z Thursday and would expect a gradual return to VFR conditions Thursday morning. NW winds may continue to gust to around 20 knots at times through this afternoon and early evening. Long Term /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 4 AM Wed...VFR conditions will return Thursday through Saturday as high pressure dominates the area. An approaching low will moves towards the Carolinas from the Central Plains leading to rain spreading across the region and resulting in sub-VFR conditions on Sunday. && .MARINE... Short Term /through Tonight/... As of 1220 PM Wednesday...No big changes to the marine forecast at midday. Winds continue WNW/NW at 15-20 knots with a few gusts to around 25 knots at times, coupled with rough seas of 6-9 feet. These conditions will persist into tonight. No changes to current advisories at this time. Long Term /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 4 AM Wed...Winds and seas will gradually subside Thursday afternoon as winds become 15-20 knots through Friday. Seas are expected to be at slightly above 6 ft over the central and northern waters, while 3-5 ft south. As a result, Small Craft Advisory will continue through Friday for the central and northern waters. Saturday, marine condition looks a little better with NNW winds 10- 20 knots, becoming around 10 knots Saturday night into Sunday with seas 2-4 ft. Winds will increase Sunday as the gradient tightens and seas build back to 4-6 ft late. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 400 AM Wednesday...Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for oceanside Outer Banks Dare north of Cape Hatteras. Increased swell energy in the wake of a series of developing low pressure areas will produce elevated water levels for the Outer Banks the next several days. Guidance indicates tide levels 1 to 2 feet above normal through tonight which could produce minor ocean overwash at high tide, mainly around 11 PM this evening. Persistent moderate NW winds may result in soundside water levels up to 1 foot above normal which is below advisory criteria. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for NCZ103. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Thursday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to noon EDT Thursday for AMZ130-131. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Friday for AMZ150-152-154. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JBM NEAR TERM...CTC SHORT TERM...JBM LONG TERM...BM AVIATION...CTC/JBM/BM MARINE...CTC/JBM/BM TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.