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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KMHX 070315
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1015 PM EST Sat Mar 6 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds into the region through the weekend and remains
over the area through much of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
As of 1015 PM Sat...Latest analysis shows broad high pressure
extending from the Great Lakes south into eastern Texas this
evening. Surface high will remain in control, but a weak
shortwave diving out of the Ohio Valley will help push a dry
backdoor front through the area tonight, which will be most
noticeable along the coast with a south to north wind shift and
an increase to around 10-15 kt.

SCT/BKN cirrus persists this evening but still expect skies to
clear after 06-08z. Temperatures already fallen a healthy amount
and will continue to inch lower, bottoming out in the upper 20s
interior and mid to upper 30s beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
As of 3 PM Sat...Another mostly sunny but chilly day on tap
with aforementioned reinforcing cold front keeping nrly breezes
across ENC. Low lvl thicknesses similar to Sat, so highs
expected once again to range from the low 50s W and S to mid/upr
40s N and E.

Sun night lows should be the coldest of the period, with sfc
high pres cresting overhead. Excellent radiational cooling
regime in place with calm winds and clr skies. Lows range from
the mid 20s interior to low 30s coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 245 AM Sat...Mostly dry weather expected with high
pressure dominating through the period. Below normal temps to
start off, with temperatures gradually warming through next
week.

Monday through Thursday...Surface high continues to build into
the region from the west, bringing Nrly winds Monday before
moving overhead Tuesday. Aftn highs will remain modest with 50s
Mon and 60s Tue. High pressure will shift off the coast Wednesday
ahead of the next approaching frontal system. Winds turn Srly,
providing some warm return flow across the region Wed and Thu
with highs back into the upper 60s and 70s.

Friday...Next frontal system begins to take shape as a more
active weather pattern sets up across the Central and Northern
US. Still quite a bit of uncertainty with timing and evolution
between models, but will keep the forecast dry late week for
now. Temps remain warm in the 70s with SW flow in place.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term /through 00z Mon/...
As of 715 PM Sat...High confidence in VFR through the period
with decreasing cirrus coverage overnight into Sunday. Airmass
much too dry to support any visibility obstructions. N to NE
winds at 5-10 kt after sunrise.

Long Term /Sun night through Thu/...
As of 255 AM Sat...Pred VFR conditions expected through the
period with high pressure in control.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Sunday/...
As of 3 PM Sat...Winds light/var across the waters late this
afternoon as high pres is overhead. Reinforcing cold front will
move through overnight into Sun morning, with nrly surge
expected to bring sustained winds 15-20 kt, with ocnl gusts
around 25 kt first half of Sun. No SCA expected as winds will be
too marginal. Seas of 2-4 ft tonight build to 3-5 ft on Sun
with the nrly surge.

Long Term /Sunday night through Thursday/...
As of 300 AM Sat...A few gusts to 25 kt will be possible across
the outer central waters Sunday evening, with seas 3-5 ft.
Moderate northerly winds continue Mon morning diminishing to
5-15 kt by afternoon and seas subsiding to 2-4 ft. High pressure
will move overhead Tue and just Wed, gradually shifting winds
to the SW around 5-10 kts. Seas will remain calm around 1-3 ft.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL/MS
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...ML/CEB
AVIATION...MS/ML
MARINE...TL/ML