Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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970 FXUS62 KMHX 160644 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 244 AM EDT Wed Oct 16 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Developing low pressure will move up the east coast today, and push a cold front offshore tonight. Cooler high pressure will build in late week and into the weekend. The next system is expected to impact the area late in the weekend or early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 240 AM Wed...Latest analysis shows stacked low near the Great Lakes with attendant cold front draped through the Mid- West and associated warm front just off the NC coast. The warm front will lift north through the area this morning, while robust system approaches from the west inducing weak cyclogenesis over the SE US. Low pressure is forecast to lift along the NC coast this afternoon, strengthening off the Mid- Atlantic Coast late. Latest radar imagery shows showers blossoming across GA and SC early this morning, and moving this way. Widespread showers and possible thunderstorms expected today with most of the activity occurring from 12-20Z. Main concern today will be the threat for locally heavy rain. PW values increase to around 2" with decent upper level divergence and strong low level warm advection. Could see 1-2"in spots with locally higher amounts, especially along/near the coast where surface based instability will be greatest. Most locations should receive .25-.75". Severe threat still looks minimal, but will need to monitor near the coast where surface based storms will be possible with localized strong winds gusts and perhaps a brief/isolated tornado not out of the question. Rapid drying and a decrease in precip coverage and intensity is forecast late this afternoon and evening, from west to east as westerly flow develops in response to low pressure strengthening off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Even with widespread clouds and precip, expect highs to climb into the low to upper 70s today, aided by southerly flow ahead of the front. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 240 AM Wed...Front will continue to push off the coast this evening, while the base of the upper trough pivots through the area and off the East Coast. Much drier and cooler airmass arrives behind the front overnight, as strong CAA develops. Lows will fall into the mid to upper 40s to lower 50s inland, and low to mid 50s along the coast. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 330 AM Tuesday...High pressure building in through the weekend bringing a cooler and drier airmass. The next system is expected to impact the area late in the weekend or early next week. Thursday through Tuesday...Strong high pressure builds in from the west Thursday and Friday bringing dry weather and a much cooler airmass. High expected in the mid to upper 60s with lows in the mid to upper 40s inland to low to mid 50s along the coast. High pressure becomes centered over the area Saturday, then migrates offshore Sunday into Monday with the next frontal system approaching the area. There remains some timing differences among guidance but could see precip chances increases late Sunday, but more likely Sunday night into Monday as SW flow aloft brings increasing gulf moisture and a warm front lifts across the area. Temps moderate to near normal over the weekend and a few degrees above normal Monday. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Short Term /through Wednesday/... As of 240 AM Wed...VFR conditions currently across the area, as ceilings continue to gradually lower early this morning. A warm front will lift north through the area this morning producing lowering ceilings and widespread showers that spread north with sub-VFR conditions expected by 12Z. Widespread showers with occasional downpours will produce IFR conditions with low cigs through this afternoon as a cold front approaches. Conditions will improve late this afternoon (20-21z) from west to east as drier air begins to spread in ending the precip with cigs lifting. Skies become mostly clear late tonight. Long Term /Thursday through Sunday/... As of 345 PM Tuesday...High pressure builds into the area Thursday into Sunday with pred VFR conditions expected. && .MARINE... Short Term /through tonight/... As of 240 AM Wed...Latest obs show E/SE winds 5-15 kt with seas 2-3 ft. Strong winds and building seas expected today and tonight. A warm front will lift north through the waters this morning, while robust system approaches from the west inducing weak cyclogenesis over the SE US. Low pressure is forecast to lift along/near the NC coast this afternoon, strengthening off the Mid-Atlantic Coast late. Strong southerly winds 20-30 kt develop this afternoon as low pressure tracks near the waters. A few gusts to gale force will be possible, but will maintain strong SCA for now. A cold front will push through the waters late with winds becoming NW 20-30 kt. Seas will build to 6-9 ft this afternoon and early evening, then subside to 4-7 ft by early Thursday morning with offshore flow. Only change to headlines was to add SCA for inland rivers for WNW CAA surge developing behind the front late today into tonight. Long Term /Thursday through Sunday/... As of 345 PM Tuesday...SCA conditions expected to continue into Thursday in strong post frontal NW flow. Winds will slowly diminish through the day Thursday. Seas will gradually subside through the end of the work week as high pressure settles over the area. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 2 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ131-135-156-158-230-231. Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 2 AM EDT Friday for AMZ150-152-154. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...CQD SHORT TERM...CQD LONG TERM...SK AVIATION...SK/CQD MARINE...SK/CQD

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