Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KMHX 100338 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1038 PM EST Sun Dec 9 2018 .SYNOPSIS... The coastal storm that has plagued the region will slowly move away from the coast through Tuesday. High pressure will build over the area Tuesday night through Thursday. Another strong storm system will affect the region the end of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... As of 1030 PM Sunday...Low pressure remains off Cape Hatteras late this evening. The main low will lift NE away from the area overnight, though cyclogenesis will continue off Hatteras with an area of low pressure persisting near the strong baroclinic zone of the Gulf Stream until the upper trough begins to push through late Monday. Strong NNE winds have developed on the back side of the low and have seen wind gusts up to 60-70 mph at several locations across and adjacent to the Pamlico Sound this evening. Strong wind gusts will continue through much of the overnight before slowly diminishing late. Bulk of the heavy precip has lifted north of the area this evening with significant drying in the snow growth zone but light rain and drizzle continues across the area. Additional rain to wrap back into the region overnight with increasing lift as the upper trough moves toward the area. Temp will remain freezing with temps aloft above 2x so there will be no p-type issues tonight. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... As of 3 PM Sun...Upper level low will pivot through the region on Monday. Column will begin to cool through the day, and soundings indicate some wet snow may mix in with the rain for esp the northern coastal plain counties, where mix of ra/sn continues in the grids esp from mid morning to around noon. Temps will be quite cold with the precip, low stratus, and brisk NE winds. Highs range from the mid/upr 30s inland to the low/mid 40s coast. Winds will only slowly diminish through the day with the low pres only slowly moving away from the NC coast. In fact, may see secondary low pres develop by late in the day and esp in the evening, reinforcing the rain over the area, esp coastal counties. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 3 PM Sunday...Low pressure will gradually move away from the coast Monday night and Tuesday with high pressure building in from the north and northeast Wednesday and Thursday. Another strong system will arrive by early Friday producing potential heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds into early next week. Monday night and Tuesday...With strong mid-level vorticity dropping through the base of the 500 mb trough leading to continued cyclogenesis just off our coast, precipitation is likely to continue Monday night before ending early Tuesday as the low finally moves away from the coast. Thermal profiles and soundings from the 3km NAM, GFS and ECMWF all support at least some mixed precipitation across the southern third of the CWA Monday night/early Tuesday. Will not include accumulations at this time, but would not be shocked if some areas closer to the coast could see a dusting. Low temperatures inland will be in the upper 20s with low/mid 30s near the coast. Any precipitation during Tuesday will be early and confined to coastal areas. Highs Tuesday will be in the low/mid 40s with around 50 Outer Banks. Tuesday night through Thursday...High pressure will build in from the north and northeast through midweek with below normal temperatures and dry conditions expected. Highs will mostly be in the mid/upper 40s Wednesday, but will warm well into the 50s for Thursday. Thursday night through Sunday...Another strong and dynamic storm system will impact eastern NC starting early Friday into next weekend. Ahead of the storm, temperatures will warm nicely with low/mid 60s for highs Friday and Saturday as this will be more of a Pacific-originated system. Concerns early on with this system will be the threat for very heavy rainfall as early GFS/ECMWF QPF already shows 2-4 inches, along with strong gusty winds. Some convective potential exists Friday night, and have thunder over the coastal waters. Too early to determine severe potential. && .AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Short Term /through tonight/ As of 7 pm Sunday...Pred IFR conditions will prevail through most of the TAF period, though could see cigs briefly lift to MVFR this evening with the lull in precip but expect rain to wrap back in after midnight with IFR cigs returning. An area of low pressure will lift northeast along the NC coast tonight bringing gusty NNE winds around 25-35 knots through late tonight. Models and guidance are indicating flying conditions will begin to improve tomorrow afternoon with cigs lifting to MVFR. Long Term /Monday night through Friday/ As of 220 PM Sunday...Some mixed precipitation may occur at the southern TAF sites of KEWN, KISO and KOAJ overnight Monday into early Tuesday morning. With high pressure building over the region from the north and northeast, VFR conditions should prevail Wednesday and Thursday. Another storm system approaches from the west by early Friday and with developing showers, some sub-VFR conditions will be possible on Friday. && .MARINE... Short term /through Monday/... As of 1030 PM Sun...Strong N to NE winds cont with low pressure centered just offshore Cape Hatteras this evening. Nrn/crtl waters as well as both sounds and the Alligator river are in a storm warning, given expected wind gusts in excess of 50 kt this evening, and in fact several reports of gusts around 50-60 kt across the Pamlico Sound early this evening. The winds will gradually diminish towards daybreak. Rest of the marine gale warnings continue. Pres falls are quite dramatic this evening, on the order of 15mb/6hr, and latest meso model suite indicate NE sustained winds 35-45 kt with some gusts to 50 kt, and felt confident enough for the storm warning. May be more marginal on the Alligator/Albemarle. Seas build as high as 15-20 ft on the coastal waters, with waves as high as 4-6 ft on Pamlico sound. Long Term /Monday Night through Friday/ As of 3 PM Sunday...Gusty northerly winds and rough seas will continue Monday night into Tuesday, driving seas as high as 10-15 feet as surface low slowly moves along the coast and pulls away during Tuesday. Winds and seas finally subside to below SCA during Wednesday afternoon/evening as high pressure settles over the waters, leading to a relatively benign Thursday with E/SE winds at 10-15 knots. As another strong and dynamic storm system approaches from the west by early Friday, SE/S winds will become gusty winds wind approaching Gale Force and seas building to 10-feet or greater by later in the day on Friday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 330 PM Sun...A prolonged period of strong winds are expected through Monday night as low pres strengthens and moves slowly away from the NC coast. Based on the current forecast track and duration of strong winds, coastal flooding, rough surf and beach erosion will be likely. Minor to moderate coastal flooding, with water level rises 1-4 ft above ground (2-5 ft above normal) expected. This will produce coastal flood warning type water level rises for ocean side Dare north of Hatteras, and Downeast Carteret through Craven counties. Coastal flood advisories continue for the Beaufort, Pamlico and soundside Hatteras Isl and Ocracoke. Winds become more NNE tonight and Monday, with the threat expanding to include the oceanside of the Outer Banks (mainly north of Cape Hatteras) and soundside Outer Banks, from the Buxton area down to Ocracoke. The greatest threat for beach erosion, rough surf, and localized ocean overwash will be for the beaches north of Hatteras. Due to the prolonged period of strong winds and wave run up, the coastal flood threat is likely to persist for a few days for many coastal locations. A secondary low will develop offshore of the Carolinas later Monday into early Tuesday, and may keep gale force winds and coastal flooding issues in play into Tuesday. Thereafter, conditions should improve into mid week. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for NCZ046-047-081. High Wind Warning until 6 AM EST Monday for NCZ103-104. High Surf Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for NCZ095-104. Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EST Monday for NCZ104. Coastal Flood Warning until 7 PM EST Monday for NCZ103. High Surf Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for NCZ103. Coastal Flood Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for NCZ093>095. Wind Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for NCZ095. Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for NCZ080-081. MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 AM EST Monday for AMZ136-137. Storm Warning until 6 AM EST Monday for AMZ130-131-135-150-152- 154-156. Gale Warning until 7 PM EST Monday for AMZ158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...SK SHORT TERM...TL LONG TERM...CTC AVIATION...CTC/SK/BM MARINE...CTC/TL/SK TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.