Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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453 FXUS62 KMHX 191700 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 100 PM EDT Mon Apr 19 2021 .SYNOPSIS... A weak area of low pressure will lift along the coast today. A strong cold front moves through the area late Wednesday. High pressure will build in from the west Thursday and Friday. Next storm system will arrive in the region by next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 915 AM Mon...No signif changes planned for today. Increasing shra and a few tsra expected from mid day on as well defined short wave crosses with sfc low lifting NE across region. Cold temps aloft and strong shear may lead to a few marginally severe storms despite limited instab. Prev disc...Latest analysis shows weak low pressure lifting along the NC coast this morning, while low amplitude shortwave trough moves through the Appalachians. Weak low pressure will lift along the coast today as shortwave trough and sfc front move eastward pushing through this afternoon. SPC has upgraded the NE portions of the forecast area to a Marginal Risk for svr wx today. Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible, mainly between 12-6pm. Main threats will be large hail and damaging wind gusts. Only real limiting factors today are moisture availability and modest instability. Diurnal heating along with dewpoints increasing to 55-60 deg may lead to MU CAPE values 500-1000 J/kg. This combined with bulk shear 60+ kt will be supportive of a svr threat. 500mb temps -18 to -20 C and low freezing levels around 8 kft support the large hail threat. Several 00z CAMS (HRRR, NSSL WRF, NAM 3k) show a more organized line trying to develop across the NE cwa, near area of better convergence and instability. Best chances look like areas north of Hwy 70 and east of Hwy 17. Convection will push off the coast late afternoon and early evening. Highs today ranging from the mid to upper 60s to mid/upper 70s...warmest across the southern zones. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/... As of 245 AM Mon...Low pressure will continue to push ENE, as high pressure builds in from the west. Precip will shift off the coast by early evening. Skies will grad clear from west to east this evening, with drier and cooler air filtering in. Patchy fog will be possible early Tuesday morning, with light winds and little temp/dewpoint spread. Lows in the mid to upper 40s inland and low to mid 50s for the beaches. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 330 AM Mon...A strong cold front will push through the area Wednesday afternoon, with much cooler air behind it and potential for frost. A potentially strong low pressure area and cold front will push through next weekend. Tuesday...Mainly dry as transitory high slides through ahead of next deep shortwave trough digging through the ctrl plains states. Temps near climo in the 70s for highs. Tuesday night through Wednesday...Area will be under influence of strengthening return flow Tue night and esp Wed, as stronger front is progged to push through by late in the day. 19/00z guidance still in good agreement wrt timing, pushing the front offshore by early Wed evening. Global model suite still in disagreement on how much moisture return is available for thunderstorm development. ECM continues more robust with moisture, esp nrn half, and have cont to advertise chc pops here, with only slgt chc south where more iso covg expected. Some sfc based instability forms along with strong shear (50+ kt bulk shear) in place, so if any storms can organize, a strong to marginally severe storm would be possible. Wednesday night through Friday...Much cooler and drier airmass expected behind the front with high pressure building in from the W. We could have some frost concerns, mainly inland zones. Coldest night still looks to be Thu night/Fri morning as center of high pres will be closer to ENC. EC/GFS mos guidance show lows falling into the low to mid 30s. Have edged temps down a few degrees, advertising widespread mid 30s inland from the coast Fri morning. Highs Thu and Fri generally in the 60s with dewpoints only in the 20s each afternoon. Saturday through Sunday...Temps rebound quickly back to near climo Sat as progressive shortwave advances eastward through the ern CONUS. 19/00Z global models all have a potential strong storm system and cold front impacting the area by Sat, and have inc pops to low end likelies. The ECM is esp ominous with this system, indicating a deepening low pres system tracking through the ctrl Carolinas. This scenario would certainly produce a severe weather threat, as GOM moisture would be plentiful with deep layer srly flow in place. Second half of the weekend should be dry with subsident flow behind departing system. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Short Term /through Tue/... As of 1255 PM Mon...Pred VFR conditions expected. Best potential for shra/isold tsra will be N and E of taf sites next few hrs as front/sfc low cont to push E. May see a brief lowering of cig/vsbys next cpl hrs. NW to N winds will gust up to 20 kts thru late this aftn. Skies shld clear thru evening with decreasing winds as high pres builds in. Late tonight as winds go light/calm could see some fog with mdls showing best threat N and added a tempo to PGV for MVFR vsbys. Whatever fog develops will quickly lift Tue morn with PC to mclr skies the rest of the day. Long Term /Tuesday night through Friday/... As of 330 AM Mon...Pred VFR conditions expected through the period. Mainly dry Tue night, then another chc of showers or storms Wed as a strong cold front approaches. && .MARINE... Short Term /through tonight/... As of 915 AM Mon...No changes with good surge developing later today as sfc low shifts NE of region. Cont SCA for all but inland rivers. Prev disc...Latest obs show E/ENE winds 5-15 kt with seas 2-3 ft across the waters. Big changes on the way today as low pressure lifts northward and cold front races towards the waters. Main change this morning was to increase winds to 20-25 kt late this afternoon and evening, with guidance in better agreement showing stronger N/NW winds developing on the backside of the deepening low. Increasing confidence that all waters will see a period of 20-25 kt winds late this afternoon and evening as low pressure strengthens off the coast. HRRR even shows a brief period of gale force winds moving through the waters between 5-8 pm. NWPS shows seas building to 4-5 ft, though some 6 ft seas will be possible across the outer northern and central waters. Will go with a SCA for all coastal waters and sounds late this afternoon and early evening. Winds will diminish quickly late tonight into early Tue morning with seas grad subsiding. Long Term /Tuesday through Friday/... As of 330 AM Mon...Have used a heavier blend of the NBM, as NWPS generally too low on seas through the period. A strong cold front will approach the waters Wednesday, pushing through Wednesday afternoon and early evening. SCA conditions likely to develop Wed afternoon with gusty SW flow ahead of the front, then stronger NW winds 20-30 kt and seas 4-7 ft developing behind it. Conditions improve with diminishing winds and seas by Thu. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EDT this evening for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EDT this evening for AMZ131-230-231. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ156-158. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ150. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...RF/CQD SHORT TERM...CQD LONG TERM...TL AVIATION...RF/TL MARINE...RF/CQD/TL

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