Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 091055 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 555 AM EST Fri Dec 9 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Cooler high pressure builds in from the north through early next week with several impulses aloft bringing periods of unsettled weather and clouds. A strong cold front will approach the area the middle of next week with a much better chance of appreciable rain late Wed or Thu. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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As of 555 AM Fri...A dampening mid level shortwave will pass to our north today. Meanwhile high pressure will continue to build over the region from the north. Moisture advection and weak isentropic lift will result in patches of light rain/drizzle early this morning, then the building high and associated subsidence will shunt the deeper moisture to the south after 12Z with clouds lifting this afternoon. Precip amounts will be very light where it does rain this morning /<0.10"/. Persistent CAA brings much cooler temps, with highs in the mid-50s for most locations.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/... As of 220 AM Fri...High pressure continues to ridge in from the north with cool northerly flow. Skies will become partly cloudy with lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 330 AM Fri...Cool and breezy conditions expected for the weekend into the first half of the coming week, with mainly dry conditions expected. The next storm system and cold front which will bring next chance of appreciable rain will arrive later Wednesday evening or Thursday. The Weekend...Is appearing mainly dry, although offshore cyclonic flow around low pres will produce a good deal of clouds and nrly breezes, thereby making it feel brisk, with highs in the 50s expected. Another mid level wave will traverse NC on Sunday, thereby bringing just some patchy light rain. It appears the best chance for this will be the srn half, where a 30% POP is maintained in the fcst. Nrn half should remain dry and only 20% fcst. Highs generally in the 50s with lows in the upr 30s to low 40s. Sun will be the cooler of the days, with ovc skies keeping temps a bit below guidance. Monday through Wednesday...Reinforcing shortwave trough will swing through the Mid Atlantic states bringing renewed nrly surge of CAA, with cool temps continuing albeit mostly sunny skies with dry high pres ridging in. Max T`s range from the low 50s nrn zones to mid 50s elsewhere. Lows will drop back to around freezing or lower interior, to upper 30s/near 40 coast. Wednesday will begin to moderate a bit with thicknesses rising ahead of next trough. Wednesday Night/Thursday...Aforementioned deep shortwave trough has been modeled fairly consistently over the last several days, and is expected to propagate ewrd through the MS River Valley this period. Ahead of it, deep layer srly flow ahead of strong cold front should bring a period of appreciable rain with the GOM tapped. Have maintained the 50-60% POPs Wed night into Thu as this period appears attm to have the best chance of rain.
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&& .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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SHORT TERM /through Tonight/... As of 555 AM Fri...VFR conditions are expected for most of the TAF period as high pressure builds over the area. There could be a brief period of MVFR ceilings through about 15Z this morning as an area of light rain moves through the area with the best chances at OAJ and ISO. LONG TERM /Saturday through Tue/... As of 330 AM Fri...Mainly VFR as high pres generally in control. Sunday will experience widespread stratus, though thinking this will be in the VFR range. Some light rain may ocnl affect the terminals, though little if any restriction to vsby are expected. Skies clear Mon as high pres builds back in.
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&& .MARINE...
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SHORT TERM /through Tonight/... As of 555 AM Fri...High pressure will continue to build over the waters from the north producing northerly flow 15-20 kt with frequent gusts to 25 kt through this evening. Seas will remain hazardous, 6-9 ft in a mix of local windswell and building longer period swell, for a prolonged period of time, with SCAs in effect for all the coastal waters and through this evening for the Pamlico Sound where frequent gusts to 25 kt are expected. LONG TERM /Saturday through Tue/... As of 330 AM Fri...Seas will remain high with large and strong low pres well out in the open Atlantic, with 6-10 ft seas expected through the weekend. Reinforcing long period nerly swell expected next week as secondary strong low pres develops off the Canadian maritimes keeping SCA conditions through mid week. Nrly winds will generally cont 10-20 kt sustained with gusts 25+ kt at times.
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&& .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ150-152-154- 156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...JME SHORT TERM...JME LONG TERM...TL AVIATION...JME/TL MARINE...JME/TL

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