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380
FXUS62 KMHX 030825
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
425 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will continue offshore today and into the weekend.
A slow moving cold front will dip south into North Carolina
this afternoon and linger over the area Saturday before
retreating northward on Sunday. Thereafter weak troughing across
the Eastern Seaboard and warm moist southerly flow will lead to
unsettled conditions through early next week. Drier conditions
are expected by mid week, but will lead to increasing heat and
humidity as ridging builds.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
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As of 0400 Friday...Patchy fog around the Crystal Coast and
lift N`wards overnight. There exists potential for dense fog
(VIS < 1/4mi) across the SWern half of the CWA. Probabilities of
VIS<1mi ~10-30% for zones further inland, mainly Lenoir,
Northern Craven, and Beaufort counties north. Fog may linger
into mid morning, but the densest fog will begin eroding with
sunrise prompting mixing of the nocturnal inversion. Riding
aloft remains in place over ECONUS and a mostly dry backdoor
cold front sags S through the Nern half of the FA this
afternoon. The front in conjunction with the sea/sound/river
breezes will shift winds Eerly 10-15kt behind it which will
bring a noticeable T drop. Afternoon seabreeze developing over
Crystal Coast, unimpeded by large scale flow, will penetrate
well inland through the afternoon, reaching the I95 corridor by
this evening. Previous runs of the typical pessimistic guidance
showed scattered showers popping up this afternoon along the
boundaries pushing through the FA, but have slightly backed off.
There may be enough convergence and moisture pooling just ahead
of where the front and seabreeze meet late this afternoon to
spark some showers, but the ridging aloft should act to suppress
them. Have increased PoPs in this "convergence zone" but have
kept below mentionable in forecast text products. Highs
approaching 90 inland with highs along the coast limited to mid
to upper 70s by cool air behind the backdoor front and/or
seabreeze.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
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As of 0400 Friday...The backdoor front stalls out over the FA
tonight where it will linger through the first half of the
weekend. Another rd of fog possible overnight with winds
expected to become light and var and ample moisture in the low
levels. Muggy lows in the mid 60s for most.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As 315 AM Fri...A weak cold front will dip southward into the
Carolinas this weekend with some scattered showers and
thunderstorms possible. Unsettled weather will continue for the
first half of next week as weak troughing lingers over the East
Coast and warm moist southerly flow develops. By mid next week
drier conditions will return but will be accompanied by an
increase in heat and humidity.

Saturday and Sunday...A weak front will remain over ENC Saturday
with easterly flow expected most of the day. Stable onshore flow
will limit instability development, and with drier air holding
on across the area for most of the day, it is looking to be a
mostly dry day with the exception of the coastal plain where
some isolated shower/thunderstorm development may occur.
Temperatures will remain above normal but a bit cooler than
Friday with highs ranging from the upper 70s to low 80s (cooler
along the coast with the onshore flow).

Winds will veer to the south Sunday as the front retreats to the
north. However this will bring better moisture/instability to
the area and allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms to
develop Sunday afternoon with the most widespread rain across
the coastal plain. Similar temps expected with highs in the 70s
to low 80s.

Monday and Tuesday...High pressure will rebuild well offshore
early next week while weak troughing remains along the Eastern
Seaboard. With a moist and unstable airmass in place, diurnally
enhanced showers and thunderstorms will develop with the best
chances again over the coastal plain. Highs will reach the upper
70s to low 80s again Monday with increasing low level
thicknesses boosting Tuesday`s highs into the low to mid 80s.

Wednesday and Thursday...Drier conditions are expected mid week
as upper level riding builds back over the Southeast. However,
increasing low level thicknesses and continued southerly flow
will lead to hot and humid conditions will afternoon highs
reaching the upper 80s to low 90s inland, and the low to mid 80s
closer to the coast. Some isolated airmass showers and
thunderstorms are also possible each afternoon.
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&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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SHORT TERM /through Fri/...
As of 0115 Friday...VFR flight cats make way to subVFR with fog
expected to develop overnight. Best chance for coastal TAF sites
with inland sites being more uncertain. Fog could become dense
at times especially along the Crystal Coast which would result
in IFR/LIFR conditions at the EWN/OAJ TAF sites. Inland TAF
sites will possibly see MVFR VIS conditions and considering how
often PGV reports IFR/LIFR VIS for less than impactful fog, have
added TEMPO IFR groups for ISO and PGV. VFR returns after fog
dissipates a few hrs after sunrise.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 315 AM Fri...Generally VFR conditions are expected
through early next week, however increasingly unsettled
conditions could lead to moments of sub-VFR conditions each
afternoon/evening.
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&&

.MARINE...
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SHORT TERM /through Fri/...
As of 0400 Friday...Sub-SCA conditions through the period. Light
and variable winds early become Swerly late morning 5-10kt.
Mostly dry backdoor cold front sags S through the Nern waters
this afternoon, shifting winds Eerly 10-15G20kt behind it. Some
gusts may approach 25kt over Albemarle Sound, but not expecting
SCA criteria gusts to persist. Winds become more Serly 10-15kt
over Sern waters where the seabreeze circulation can be felt. Seas
only 1-2 ft throughout.

Fog threat persists into the weekend for coastal waters,
sounds, and rivers once again.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 315 AM Fri...Decent boating conditions are expected this
weekend with slightly worsening conditions developing early next
week.

Winds will be easterly Saturday at 5-10 kts and then come around
to the south of Sunday at 5-15 kts. SW winds then develop Monday
through most of next week with winds increasing to 10-20 kts.
Seas will be generally 2-4 ft through Monday and then increase
to 3-5 ft Tuesday.
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&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CEB
SHORT TERM...CEB
LONG TERM...SGK
AVIATION...SGK/CEB
MARINE...SGK/CEB