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801
FXUS62 KMHX 130854
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
454 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure remains the dominant weather maker today. A low
pressure system will bring unsettled weather across the area
Tuesday into Wednesday. High pressure builds in late Thursday
before another low pressure system impacts us late in the week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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As of 330 AM Mon...Latest analysis this morning depicts an
increasing amplified mid-level ridge shifting over the eastern
CONUS in the wake of troughing lifting into the western
Atlantic. The next area of troughing is currently digging into
the southern plains and is forecast to slide east towards the
Carolinas by mid-week, playing a role in increasingly unsettled
weather. At the surface, high pressure is centered over the mid-
Atlantic coast while a backdoor cold front/trough settles
offshore to our south and a coastal trough continues to migrate
westward, allowing for moist easterly flow across the Inner and
Outer Banks.

The forecast calls for one last day of pleasant weather, albeit
with increasing clouds late in the afternoon as the
aforementioned plains trough taps into Gulf moisture. The
surface high will shift offshore allowing for a return of
southerly flow for much of the area, although the lingering
trough will keep winds more east to east- southeast for coastal
locations, therefore moderating temperatures across the northern
Outer Banks. Still, widespread 70s are expected with a few low
80s across the coastal plain.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
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As of 330 AM Mon...Upper trough will continue to shift east as
a wave of low pressure migrates along a stalled frontal boundary
draped along the Gulf Coast overnight. Broad southerly flow
will develop over the Carolinas overnight and dew points will
steadily climb into the 60s through Tuesday morning. This,
combined with steadily increasing cloud cover, will contribute
to considerably warmer overnight lows as temperatures struggle
to fall below the low 60s. A few stray pre- dawn showers are
possible across the coastal plain with increasing isentropic
lift, but more robust rainfall will hold off until daytime hours
Tuesday.
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&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 415 AM Monday...Unsettled weather will impact ENC on
Tue/Wed as a deepening low pressure tracks across the Southeast
and Mid-Atlantic. High pressure builds in Thursday night into
Friday but another low pressure system will impact the area late
in the week.

Tuesday through Wednesday night...Vertically stacked low
pressure will track across the Ohio River Valley on Tuesday and
then push across the Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday before pushing
off the coast Wednesday night. Precip chances increase through
the day Tuesday and peak Tuesday night as upper level diffluence
and southern stream moisture increases across the area with
PWATs peaking around 1.75". Additional showers will push across
the area Wednesday as the upper level trough and attendant sfc
cold front pushes across the area. Could see a few elevated
thunderstorms Tuesday into Tuesday night but clouds and precip
will limit instability and any severe potential appears minimal.
However, Wednesday will have a better chance for stronger
storms with better upper level support, colder temps aloft, and
greater instability coupled with around 30-40 kt of bulk shear.
SPC has a marginal risk (1 of 5) of severe storms across the
coastal plain on Wednesday. Most of the area will likely see a
soaking rain with precip amounts around 1-1.5" through the
period with coastal sections potentially approaching 2". Temps
will continue to be seasonable with highs in the mid 70s on
Tuesday and low to mid 80s on Wednesday.

Thursday through Sunday...Upper ridging builds in from the west
Thursday with a vertically stacked low off the Mid-Atlantic
coast slowly moving eastward. ECWMF continues to be the slowest
solution keeping cyclonic flow across the area keeping isolated
showers and thunderstorm chances through much of the day and
will keep slight chance PoPs attm. Ridging crests over the area
Thursday night but will slide offshore Friday with another
frontal system quickly moving into the area late in the week
but once again guidance differs with how the system evolves as
it pushes across the Southeast and off the coast over the
weekend. But despite the differences, most guidance brings
another round of descent rainfall amounts across much of the
area.
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&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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SHORT TERM /through 06z Tuesday/...
As of 130 AM Mon...VFR conditions prevail across ENC early this
morning as high pressure builds in from the north behind a
backdoor cold front now stalled offshore. Main concern will be
MIFG formation early this morning. Clear skies prevail across
the region but not all areas have decoupled (EWN in particular,
which has remained at a steady 5 kt most of the night). Areas
have that decoupled are seeing dew point depressions rapidly
approach zero, and some brief ground fog formation is possible
(10-20% chance) around dawn.

VFR conditions return in the morning with increasing cirri
through the day as low pressure migrates along a stalled frontal
boundary along the Gulf Coast. Light winds this morning
gradually veer southerly as the surface high migrates offshore
but remaining under 10 kt through the day. Cigs will gradually
lower through 06z but should remain at VFR.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 430 AM Monday...A low pressure system will impact the
area Tuesday through Wednesday with deteriorating conditions
expected Tuesday with periods of sub-VFR continuing into
Wednesday. Sub- VFR conditions possible Wednesday night with
plenty of low level moisture in place. Pred VFR returns Thursday
but could see isolated showers bringing brief sub-VFR
conditions. Pred VFR continues Friday but another frontal system
will approach the area bringing increasing clouds with sub-VFR
possible Friday night.
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&&

.MARINE...
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SHORT TERM /Today and Tonight/...
As of 350 AM Mon...Benign boating conditions will prevail
through the short term period, although conditions will begin to
deteriorate late Mon night into Tues morning as complex area of
low pressure approaches from the west.

Regional observations this morning show seas around 2-4 feet
with predominantly easterly flow of 5-10 kt. These conditions
will persist through this afternoon with flow gradually veering
southerly as high pressure centered over the mid-Atlantic shifts
offshore. As low makes its approach towards the Carolinas,
pressure gradient will tighten with winds reaching 15-20 kt by
daybreak on Tuesday. Seas remain at around 2-4 feet through the
period, then building to 5+ late early Tues morning primarily
across outer portions of Onslow Bay.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 430 AM Monday...Southerly winds increase Tuesday ahead of
the low pressure system and expect a period of Small Craft
Advisory conditions to develop and continue into Wednesday. We
may see a brief period of Gale Force winds across portions of
the waters Tuesday evening. Seas will build Tuesday and peak
around 7-10 ft Tuesday night, then will gradually subside
Wednesday. A cold front will push across the waters Wednesday
night with winds becoming Nly around 10-15 kt and seas around 3
to 5 ft through Thursday. High pressure build into the area
Thursday night bringing light winds then slides offshore Friday
with winds becoming Sly around 10-15 kt late in the day ahead
of the next frontal system.
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&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Tuesday to 6 AM EDT Wednesday
     for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Tuesday to 2 AM EDT Wednesday
     for AMZ136-137.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Tuesday to 2 AM EDT Thursday
     for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Tuesday to 2 AM EDT Thursday
     for AMZ156-158.
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&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...MS
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...SK/MS
MARINE...SK/MS