-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
893
FXUS62 KMHX 070749
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
349 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to strengthen offshore while weak
troughing continues for the next few days, as warm moist
southerly flow leads to unsettled conditions. A strong frontal
system will move through Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 3 AM Tue...Latest analysis shows high pressure anchored
offshore, troughing inland and mid level shortwave moving
through the Carolinas. Sct showers and iso tstms ongoing early
this morning over central NC, moving towards the coastal plain,
with additional activity beginning to blossom over the Gulf
Stream.

Today still looks to be a conditional severe weather day across
Eastern NC, with likely less coverage than yesterday, but a
more favorable environment. Convection may be ongoing right
along, or just off, the coast this morning associated with a
weak mid-level wave moving through. Expect there to be a brief
period of subsidence in its wake. Additionally, mid/upper level
ridging will be approaching from the west, adding to the
potential for subsidence. Strong heating of a moist boundary
layer will support MLCAPE climbing as high as 1000-1500 j/kg
this afternoon, while mid/upper level northwesterly flow aloft
atop a southerly low- level flow will lead to an increase in
deep layer shear, the 25-35kt. Overall, the environment will be
more supportive of severe weather than yesterday, however,
modest subsidence plus questionable low-level forcing may limit
svr potential and coverage. The seabreeze will likely be the
primary focus for convective initiation. If/where thunderstorms
develop, there will be an increased risk of severe weather. The
environment will support the potential for damaging winds and
large hail with any sustained updraft. Mid-level lapse rates
aren`t forecast to be particularly steep, but NW flow aloft will
increase the risk of rotating updrafts, subsequently increasing
the potential for hail development.

With the low-level flow taking on more of a westerly component,
low-level thicknesses will increase a bit and expect high temps
to climb into the upper 70s/low 80s for the beaches and mid to
upper 80s inland.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
As of 3 AM Tue...Any convection that develops should weaken by
late evening as the boundary layer stabilizes, and as low-level
forcing weakens. Convection likely pushing off the coast by
midnight. Another muggy and mild night with lows in the upper
60s to low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As 330 AM Mon... There have been a few changes in the forecast since
the previous update but the overall trend remains the same as ENC
will remain unsettled into this weekend with a daily chance for
showers and thunderstorms into Friday before potentially drying
out on Sat. Highest risk for severe weather still looks to be
on Thursday. High pressure ridging finally overspreads ENC
early next week.

Wednesday and Thursday... Have made some tweaks to the forecast for
Wed and Thurs with the latest data and trends in mind. Upper level
zonal flow begins to overspread ENC on Wed out ahead of a
positively tilted upper trough which will be located in the
Upper Midwest to start the period. Within this zonal flow,
guidance has come into better agreement that a weak mid level
disturbance will trek across the Carolinas and then offshore Wed
evening into Thurs morning. As a result, guidance has come in
slightly more aggressive with PoP`s for Wed and as such have
increased PoP`s slightly from the previous update, though POP`s
still remain at Chc. Severe threat does look like it has
increased slightly for Wed as well with warm and moist S`rly
flow keeping dewpoints generally in the upper 60s to low 70s
allowing MLCAPE to build to around 1500-2500 J/kg in the
afternoon. In combination with forcing from the incoming mid
level shortwave trough, scattered shower and isolated
thunderstorm activity is forecast to develop Wed aftn with an
isolated strong to severe storm possible. The limiting factors
to the severe threat will be the weak nature of the shortwave
and wind shear will be weak with guidance suggesting deep layer
shear values closer to 20-30 kts at most. Either way can`t rule
out a stronger wind gust and some hail in the strongest storms
and the SPC has maintained a marginal (level 1 out of 5 risk)
for severe weather Wed.

As the shortwave pushes off the coast, any leftover shower and
thunderstorm activity will quickly weaken Wed night into Thurs and
push offshore. As we get into Thurs, upper level trough migrates
over to the Great Lakes region while a jet streak begins to expand
over the Mid-Atlantic increasing lift. At the mid levels a
second and stronger mid level shortwave rounds the base of the
trough and tracks over the Mid-Atlantic Thurs afternoon/evening
while at the surface deepening low pressure system in the Great
Lakes tracks NE`wards into the Northeast with its associated
cold front nearing western NC and a prefrontal trough setting up
over the Coastal Plain Thurs evening. With ample MLCAPE
1000-2000 J/kg over ENC in the afternoon, stronger wind shear
30-40 kts, and slightly stronger forcing, ENC will once again
have another threat for scattered showers and isolated to widely
scattered strong to severe tstms. Once again the main hazard
within the strongest storms will be damaging winds and hail.
Given the higher risk for severe wx on Thurs ENC is in a
slight risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe weather Thurs
afternoon and evening. Highs each day get into the low 90s
inland and 80s across the OBX while lows only get down into the
60s.

Friday through early next week... Upper level troughing finally
pivots out of the Great Lakes and overspread the Mid-Atlantic
on Fri into Sat with the last and likely strongest mid level
shortwave rounding this troughs base on Fri. This is where the
biggest change in the forecast has been as at the surface, low
pressure in the Northeast will continue to trek NE`wards while
its associated cold front finally tracks across the region
slowing as it pushes offshore. A wave of low pressure develops
along this frontal boundary on Fri as well and tracks along or
near the coast. The eventual track will have a major impact on
whether the area sees thunder on Fri as a low track just
offshore keeps us on the cool and more stable side while a low
track just inland gives us a threat for additional
thunderstorms on Fri. For now kept thunder in the grids for Fri
afternoon and evening until we get more clarity on the eventual
evolution of the forecast. Either way Friday looks to have the
best shot at widespread precip. Through the weekend and into
next week general troughing remains over the Eastern Seaboard
before gradually ejecting out into the Canadian Maritimes. Will
have one more chance at a frontal passage Sun evening into Mon
before surface ridging begins to overspread ENC from the west.
Temps do cool over the weekend closer to normal.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 3 AM Tue...Mix of VFR and IFR across the terminals early
this morning, with patchy stratus moving into the coastal plain.
Guidance indicating the chance for status is a bit lower than
last night but still around a 30-50% chance for MVFR cigs late
tonight, ~08-12Z, across western terminals, including PGV and
ISO. Probs for IFR is much lower but do jump up to 20-40%
briefly around daybreak ~10-12z. All terminals will have
potential for sub-VFR through 12z this morning. Expect
conditions to return to VFR near or shortly after 12z this
morning. VFR expected outside of sct showers or tstms, which may
impact terminals later this morning and this afternoon.

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 330 AM Tue... Expecting primarily VFR conditions outside
of any shower and tstm activity each afternoon Wed and Thurs
with the best shot at seeing widespread sub-VFR conditions on
Fri. VFR conditions then return on Sat across the CWA.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 3 AM Tue...Latest obs show SW winds 10-20 kt with seas 2-4
ft. SW/WSW winds 10-20 kt expected for most of today with seas
3-5 ft. Expect another surge 15-25 kt late this afternoon and
into tonight with strengthening thermal gradient. Given how
winds overachieved a bit Monday evening, went ahead with a SCA
for the central and southern waters late this afternoon into
tonight, with potential for a period of frequent gusts to 25 kt
along with seas building to 4-6 ft. May need to be extended into
the Pamlico Sound as well. Sct showers and tstms expected across
the waters today.

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 340 AM Mon... Not much change in the forecast overall as
unsettled weather will remain in place into the end of the week
promoting a daily chance at showers and thunderstorms across
our waters each day. Locally enhanced winds and seas will be
possible within any thunderstorm that makes its way into the
area. Otherwise the background winds remain SW`rly at 10-20 kts
on Wed with a few gusts up near 25 kts at times Wed aftn and
evening as the thermal gradient sets up. As we get into
Thursday, gradient tightens out ahead of an approaching cold
front allowing winds to increase closer to 15-25 kts with gusts
in excess of 20-30 kts across our waters. Strongest winds will
be located across our coastal waters and larger sounds likely
necessitating a SCA for Thurs across portions of ENC. As the
front nears and begins to push offshore on Fri winds decrease
closer to 10-15 kts and become more W`rly on Fri before
becoming NW`rly and increasing slightly to 15-20 kts Fri night
behind the frontal passage. NW`rly winds continue through Sat
before winds return to a S`rly direction towards the end of the
weekend. 3-5 ft seas along our coastal waters on Wed increase to
4-7 ft on Thurs as the winds increase with some 8 ft seas
possible along the Gulf Stream waters. Seas gradually ease over
the weekend as winds ease down to 2-4 ft.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EDT
     Wednesday for AMZ152-154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RCF
AVIATION...CQD/RCF
MARINE...CQD/RCF