597
FXUS62 KMHX 011900
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
300 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure then builds in for a couple of days before yet
another cold front impacts the area over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Wed...Iso/sct showes/storms forming this afternoon as
expected. Best covg is north of hwy 70 and east of hwy 17, where
earlier weak low level disturbance is now located. A few storms
could become better organized as effective shear is expected to
inc to aroun 25 kt by early evening.

Thunderstorm activity should be mainly diurnally- driven, with
a downward trend in coverage and intensity after 8pm this
evening. In the wake of the thunderstorms, winds will be very
light, or even calm, and skies will attempt to clear out. This
plus whatever rain falls today should support an increased fog
potential tonight. There is some uncertainty with how much
clearing will occur, but the pattern, plus model guidance,
supports a risk of dense fog.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
As of 3 PM Wed...Much quieter day on tap. After morning low
clouds/fog scour out, a warm day under mo sunny skies is
expected. A sea-breeze will develop by afternoon, though limited
moisture will preclude any shower activity along it, so we
remain pop-free tomorrow afternoon. Highs should be quite warm,
in the mid 80s interior, to mid 70s coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 4 AM Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGES

- Quiet until this weekend when conditions become more unsettled
  through early next week

- Best rain chances on Sunday

FORECAST DETAILS

Friday...A passing shortwave embedded within the ridge will cause a
slight bump in winds and an increase in cloud cover. Additionally, a
dry cold front to our north will dip south into our northern
counties. Temps will reach their warmest marks of the week before
the cold front moves through with the coastal plain topping out in
the upper 80s and the beaches in the mid 70s.

Saturday-Tuesday...The mid-level ridge remains over the eastern US
Saturday but weakens as a complex series of shortwave troughs and
surface lows move toward the area, resulting in unsettled conditions
that will persist into the beginning of next week. Chances for
showers and storms start to increase Saturday morning and peak
Sunday (30-50%). Shower and storm chances hang around through the
period due to the lingering nature the front, but they will be
decreasing as we progress into next week (25-30% Monday, 15-20%
Tuesday). Saturday`s high temps will be a few degrees cooler than
Friday due to the dry cold front that will dip south (low 80s
coastal plain, low 70s beaches). Temps remain around the same Sunday
before rebounding next week with highs expected to reach back
into the mid to upper 80s across the coastal plain Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Thursday/...
As of 2 PM Wed...Occasional low CIGs/VIS will accompany any sct
SHRA and TSRA, with sub-VFR conditions expected at times. Once
the showers end this evening, clearing skies and light winds
are expected to lead to an increased risk of BR/FG. The
potential is there for IFR/LIFR conditions to occur, esp late
tonight into early Thu. Mo sunny skies expected after 13z, with
light onshore (s to se) breezes expected.

LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 4 AM Wednesday...Pred VFR expected through Friday.
Conditions become more unsettled this weekend through early next
week due to a series of disturbances moving across the area.
There will be multiple chances for showers and storms with
Sunday having the greatest threat (30-60%). Periods of lower
CIGs and VIS as well as gusty winds if near any storms can be
expected.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Wed/...
As of 3 PM Wed...Winds will remain light (5-15kt) for the rest
of the day and into the evening. In fact, winds become mostly
calm to below 5 kt late, and therefore there will be a potential
for fog across most area waters, sounds, and rivers. Seas of
2-4 ft are forecast to slowly lay down through tonight, with 1-3
ft through the day Thu.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will diminish tonight with
loss of heating, and be followed with an increased risk of fog.
The potential exists for a period of sub 1SM visibilities
during this time, and we`ll monitor this in later forecasts in
case a Marine Dense Fog Advisory is needed.

LONG TERM /Thursday night through Sunday/...
As of 4 AM Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGES

- Sub-SCA conditions with multiple chances for showers and
  thunderstorms

FORECAST DETAILS

Sub-SCA conditions are expected through the period but multiple
chances for showers and thunderstorms could create hazardous
boating conditions. Sunday presents the best opportunity for
showers and storms (30-40%). Winds will be 5-10 kt out of the
NE on Thursday but will veer to the southwest by early Friday. A
dry cold front will sag south into northern counties on Friday.
North of Cape Hatteras, 5-10 kt winds will be out of the E by
the afternoon. South of Cape Hatteras, winds will be 5-10 kt out
of the ESE. Winds and seas pick up Saturday-Sunday as a front
approaches. Winds will be ESE around 10-15 kt Saturday and then
southerly by Sunday. Seas remain around 2 ft until Saturday when
they will increase to 2-4 ft.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...OJC/RJ
AVIATION...TL/OJC
MARINE...TL/OJC