151
FXUS63 KMKX 051944
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
244 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - On again/off again showers and storms Tuesday through
   Thursday. Monitoring the potential for scattered strong
   storms mid afternoon to early evening Tuesday.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 240 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Tonight and Monday:

High pressure will move into Michigan tonight so light winds are
expected. A shortwave moving across southern Wisconsin may bring
some mid level clouds overnight. Seeing less potential for valley
fog tonight.

Light southeast winds will prevail on Monday as the high moves over
Lake Huron. Mid level ridging will set up in the wake of the
shortwave and skies will be mostly clear. A few cumulus may
develop in the afternoon with highs around 70. Lake shore areas
will be a little cooler with winds off the lake.


Marquardt

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 240 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Tuesday through Sunday:

An unsettled weather pattern sets up across the region Tuesday and
persists in an on again/off again fashion into next weekend.

Tuesday features an occluding low over the Dakotas with an
associated occluded front sliding into the region from the
southwest. The entire suite of ensembles indicate an expansive
band of rain and embedded thunder along/ahead of this boundary,
entering southwestern WI by daybreak and spreading over the
remainder of southern WI through midday Tuesday.

With rainfall progressively running out ahead of the primary
forcing, this band of rainfall looks to be weakening, if not
trying to fall apart to some extent. Trends from the GEFS/EPS/GEPS
indicate a general quarter inch of rainfall (give or take), with
localized higher totals beneath embedded thunder and localized
lower amounts where lift decreases quicker. All ensemble systems
are rightfully shifting higher confidence of greater than one half
inch of rain back into MN and closer to the main areas of forcing.

The question for Tuesday afternoon becomes, can enough heating be
mustered to reignite scattered storms during the mid afternoon
into early evening hours. The GEFS and NAM support redevelopment
while the EPS and GEPS, overall, do not. This is a mesoscale
forecast problem that will need to be monitored. If storms do not
refire late Tuesday afternoon, there will be a break in rain until
later Wednesday.

On Wednesday, a piece of energy from the stacked low over the
Dakotas will break off and slide to the east southeast. This
initiates weak cyclogenesis in eastern Iowa, that subsequently
slides across northern IL/IN/OH by early Thursday. This puts our
area on the cooler more stable side of the system, though will
ample opportunity for additional showers. Onset timing is late
afternoon/early evening Wednesday, persisting in an on again/off
again fashion through Thursday. This looks to set up quiet day on
Friday.

Next weekend, model spread increases substantially. There is some
consensus on a wave moving through northwest flow on Saturday
bringing another round of showers and cooler temperatures.
Solutions diverge as the GEFS/GEPS develop a slower, more closed
solution, while the EPS keeps a faster moving open wave.

Temperature-wise, expect above average readings Tuesday and
Wednesday, with at or below average readings from Thursday into
next weekend.

Gagan


Marquardt

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 240 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

VFR conditions are expected through Monday. East winds will be 10
knots or less. Some mid level clouds will move through overnight.
There will be a few clouds with bases around 4000 ft during the day
on Monday.

Marquardt

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 240 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

High pressure of will move into Michigan tonight. Light winds will
become easterly tonight. In the nearshore, east to southeast
winds will increase to around 20 knots Monday night into Tuesday
with waves 3 to 5 feet. The trend in winds has been downward so
will hold off on a small craft advisory at this time.

Showers and storms are expected on Tuesday along a front. It will
stall across the lake bringing variable winds on Wednesday. East to
northeast winds will increase Wednesday night. Small craft
conditions may be reached on Thursday.

Marquardt

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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