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464
FXUS62 KMLB 141849
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
249 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 249 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

- An area of low pressure and associated deep moisture moves over
  central Florida early this week. Above-normal lightning storm
  chances and locally heavy rainfall will be the primary impacts.

- Daily rain chances remain high, up to around 80% through
  midweek as the disturbance continues to pull deep moisture over
  the peninsula as it moves into the Gulf.

- A more seasonal pattern returns late week with rain chances
  returning closer to normal by Friday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.DISCUSSION...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 249 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Currently-Tonight...Cloud cover has broke up some through early
afternoon across the area. Daytime heating, sea breeze/outflow
boundaries and a very moist airmass (PW 2-2.3") are still forecast
to produce scattered to numerous showers and storms through the
afternoon and early evening. Greatest coverage of this activity
(PoPs up to 70-80%) is forecast to focus across the interior and
southern portions of east central FL where convection is already
ongoing. Storms will push toward the S/SE up to 15-25 mph and the
potential for strong to isolated severe storms continues, with a
Marginal Risk for severe weather still in place for today. Main
threats will be frequent lightning strikes, strong to locally
damaging wind gusts of 40-60 mph, small hail and locally heavy
rainfall/minor flooding. A quick 1-3 inches of rainfall will occur
with storms, with a low chance (5-10%) of some localized higher
spots of 4-5 inches should there be any repeated rounds of
convection. This may lead to temporary ponding of water along
roadways, urban and poor drainage areas. A Slight Risk of excessive
rainfall continues across the area.

Hi-res guidance shows showers and storms diminishing through late
evening across the interior, but rain chances linger along the coast
(around 30-50 percent) as an area of low pressure (recently
designated as 93L) slowly approaches the east coast of Florida.
Locally heavy rainfall/minor flooding concerns will continue along
the coast should there be an persistent rainfall bands or
repeated rounds of convection that develop. Lows forecast in the
low to mid 70s.

Tuesday-Wednesday...Area of low pressure just offshore the east
central FL coast is forecast to push onshore and inland later into
Tuesday, eventually emerging into the northeastern Gulf Wednesday.
NHC continues to have a low chance of tropical development with this
system (20 percent next 48 hours and 30 percent next 7 days). Deep
tropical moisture persists with PW values up to around 2.0-2.3
inches, so regardless of any development high rain chances (around
70-90 percent) and localized flooding concerns continue through
midweek. Ensemble guidance indicates widespread rainfall of 1-3
inches across central Florida through Wednesday, but locally higher
amounts of 4-5 inches may occur with persistent rainbands or
repeated rounds of showers and storms. A Slight Risk for excessive
rainfall continues on Tuesday as low moves across the area, and then
a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall exists across the far interior
on Wednesday. A few strong storms will still be possible, mainly
during the afternoon and evening hours with primary threats
including frequent lightning strikes and strong wind gusts of 40-50
mph.

Increased cloud cover and a potential earlier start to showers and
storms tomorrow are forecast to keep highs in the mid to upper 80s,
with peak heat index values in the upper 90s to around 100F. Max
temps then reach the upper 80s/near 90 along the coast and low 90s
inland on Wednesday, with peak afternoon heat index values of 100-
105F.

Thursday-Sunday...(Modified Previous Discussion) The Atlantic ridge
axis takes control of the local weather pattern through the extended
forecast period. A wave of deeper moisture advects from the
southeast on Thursday keeping one more day of higher rain chances
(70-80%). By Friday and into the weekend, a more seasonal pattern of
afternoon showers and storms is forecast with rain chances returning
closer to normal. High temperatures climb near to above normal each
afternoon, reaching the low to mid 90s, and peak afternoon heat
index values remain elevated up to 102-107F. Lows in the low to mid
70s gradually increase a few degrees as winds turn slightly more
onshore.
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&&

.MARINE...
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Issued at 249 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Tonight-Tuesday night...An area of low pressure (designated 93L)
east of the FL peninsula will track westward and across the waters
and FL into Tuesday and Tuesday night. Winds will be around 5-10
knots and somewhat variable in direction as low progresses westward
through the waters tonight/early Tuesday. Winds then increase out of
the S/SE to around 10-15 knots across the waters from late Tuesday
morning through Tuesday night as low is forecast to shift onshore
and inland. Poor boating conditions may develop offshore into
Tuesday night, with potential for wind speeds to approach 15-20
knots. Wave heights will remain around 1-3 feet.

Deep tropical moisture with passing weak low and disturbance aloft
will keep above normal coverage of showers and storms across the
waters through early this week. Waves of developing scattered to
numerous showers and storms will occur, with main storm threats
including gusty winds and occasional to frequent lightning strikes.

Wednesday-Saturday...Low pressure shifts westward into the NE Gulf
midweek, and NHC currently has a low (30%) chance for tropical
development with this system across this region. Across the local
waters, wind speeds may still remain elevated out of the S/SE up to
around 15 knots offshore and across the nearshore Volusia waters
into Wednesday. However, wind speeds are then forecast to diminish
to less than 15 knots through late week and into the early weekend
as they remain generally out of the southeast, becoming E/SE into
Saturday. Seas forecast to remain around 2-3 feet. Shower and storm
coverage across the waters is forecast to continue to be above
normal through at least midweek as deeper moisture lingers across
the area, but then should be closer to normal later in the week/into
the weekend as some drier air begins to push in from the east.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 143 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Wet pattern overall through the TAF period. Early start to
convection today, with scattered showers and storms pushing across
ECFL through the morning hours. Lightning storms currently
pushing across the interior, south of KISM. Have maintained VCTS
starting at 18Z for all terminals with TEMPOs for MVFR conditions
within TSRA starting 18/20Z for most TAF sites. Latest CAMs show
convection will diminish shortly after sunset. Winds becoming
light and variable overnight. Winds will remain light through the
morning with winds generally out WNW/NNW before becoming onshore
by late morning/early afternoon and staying below 10 KT. Latest
guidance shows increasing showers/storms through tomorrow as the
disturbance approaches and then potentially crossing the local
area. Have included -RA VCTS starting at 12Z along the coast and
14Z across the interior.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  88  74  90 /  30  80  20  80
MCO  75  89  74  91 /  40  90  20  80
MLB  73  88  76  89 /  40  80  30  70
VRB  71  88  72  90 /  60  80  30  70
LEE  75  89  75  90 /  40  90  20  80
SFB  75  89  74  92 /  30  80  20  80
ORL  76  89  75  91 /  40  90  20  80
FPR  71  87  73  89 /  60  90  40  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Weitlich
AVIATION...Watson