847
FXUS62 KMLB 200122
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
922 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 920 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

The forecast remains on track across east central Florida tonight.
A few lingering showers will continue moving offshore, diminishing
across the local Atlantic waters overnight. Mostly dry conditions
are then forecast to persist across the peninsula tonight, with
westerly winds remaining around 5 mph. Patchy fog may develop late
tonight into early Monday morning, particularly near the I-4
corridor and areas northward, but confidence in this was too low
to include with the forecast. We will monitor overnight and make
adjustments as needed. Temperatures will be a bit closer to normal
values across east central Florida tonight, with lows in the
upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 745 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

VFR conditions forecast across all terminals overnight. Lingering
VCTS near SUA will diminish by 01Z, with dry conditions elsewhere.
Westerly winds overnight around 5 knots will pick up around 15Z
out of the north-northwest around 10 knots. Gusts to 20 to 25
knots will be possible Monday afternoon, and VCSH cannot be ruled
out across the interior terminals (MCO/ISM/SFB) and along the
coast from TIX southward. Higher confidence in VCTS across the
Treasure Coast terminals after 17Z. Conditions are forecast to
improve after 22Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 405 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

Tonight...Weak frontal boundary pushes southward into the waters
into tonight, with southerly winds around 10 knots veering and
becoming west to northwest late in the night. Scattered strong to
severe storms will continue across the waters, mainly south of
Melbourne through sunset, and then convection will gradually
diminish overnight. Can`t rule out some isolated storms developing
and pushing offshore near to north of Melbourne though through this
evening, which may also produce some strong gusts and small hail.
Seas will range from 2-3 feet.

This Week...(Modified Previous Discussion) Seas build up to 5-6 ft
offshore late Monday night as surface winds veer NNE and briefly
increase to around 15 kt. Seas will generally range 3-5 ft Tuesday
and fall further mid to late week as high pressure builds over the
waters. Rain and storm chances remain elevated on Monday before
gradually tapering off mid to late week, as well. Winds NE on
Tuesday, 10-15 kt, veering easterly Wednesday and beyond at or
around 10 kt. The east coast sea breeze may locally increase wind
speeds to around 15 kt each afternoon closer to the coast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  69  82  70  84 /  30  30  20  40
MCO  72  88  70  87 /  20  30  10  50
MLB  70  87  72  85 /  40  30  20  50
VRB  70  90  70  87 /  50  30  30  50
LEE  72  87  69  87 /  20  30  10  50
SFB  71  87  70  87 /  20  30  10  50
ORL  72  88  70  87 /  20  30  10  50
FPR  69  90  69  87 /  50  30  30  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Tollefsen
AVIATION...Tollefsen