Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FGUS72 KMLB 161439

Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne, FL
1039 AM EDT Mon May 16 2022

...Summer Flood Outlook for East Central Florida...

The potential for summer flooding across east central Florida
remains near normal through July and early August. Springtime rain
amounts have been feast or famine across the area, with the northern
half of the forecast area (north of Melbourne to Kissimmee)
averaging 2 to 6 inches above normal over the last 90 days,
contrasting with the southern areas which average 2 to 6 inches
below normal. This translates to streamflows near to above normal
for Brevard and Osceola counties northward and below to much below
normal for the few gauges along the Treasure Coast towards Lake

The latest three month outlook from the Climate Prediction Center
outlines a 30 to 40% likelihood of above normal precipitation for
the months of May, June and July across the Florida Peninsula. As of
mid May, Abnormally Dry (D0) to Moderate Drought (D1) conditions
were present across Indian River, St Lucie, Martin and Okeechobee
counties, however the CPC anticipates that drought removal is likely
heading into the summer season. The climatological wet season for
east central Florida typically begins late May and lasts into
October. This flood outlook encompasses the first three months of
the wet season.



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