Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FNUS72 KMLB 092112
FWSMLB

Spot Forecast for Spanish Lakes Wildfire...NWS
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
512 PM EDT Sun May 9 2021

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1800 EDT on May 09.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Gusty winds out of the southeast will continue through
sunset, creating control and spread issues for the next 2-3 hours.
Sustained wind speeds and gusts will decrease significantly after
sunset, decreasing smoke dispersion steadily though the night.

Current relative humidities between 45 and 50 percent at 5 PM will
slowly rise over the next several hours as temperatures begin to fall
toward sunset, then rise move rapidly from sunset onward.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (20-25 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................None.
Min temperature.....Around 70.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 15 to 20 mph gusting to 15 mph
                    through sunset. Winds decreasing to 5 to 7 mph
                    late in the evening and overnight.
Mixing height.......2500-2700 ft AGL decreasing to 600 ft AGL late.
Transport winds.....Southeast 20 mph becoming south 10 to 12 mph
                    after midnight.
Dispersion index....40-45 decreasing to below 10 overnight.
LVORI...............1 increasing to 6.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........35  30  30  30  25  20  20  20  20  20  20  20
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  10  10  10  20  20  20  10  10  10  20
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   2   2   2   1   1   1   1
Temp............82  80  79  78  76  75  74  74  73  72  72  71
RH..............60  67  69  71  79  82  84  87  90  93  90  93
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..17  16  13  12  10   6   5   5   5   3   3   3
20 FT wind gust.23  22  19  18  16
Mix hgt (kft)...2.7 2.5 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.20  20  20  17  14  12  10  10  10  9   9   8
Dispersion idx..45  44  23  15  10  8   7   7   7   4   4   4
LVORI...........1   1   3   3   4   4   4   5   5   6   6   6

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers until late afternoon, then chance of
                    showers and slight chance of thunderstorms
                    early in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until 1400, then 1-8 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 89.
Min humidity........56 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southeast 6 to 13 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms early
                    in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......600-2000 ft AGL increasing to 2700-4200 ft AGL
                    in the late morning and afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 5 to 12 mph shifting to the southeast 15
                    to 17 mph late in the afternoon.
Dispersion index....4 increasing to 52.
LVORI...............6 increasing to 9 early in the morning, then
                    decreasing to 6 early in the morning decreasing
                    to 4 late in the morning decreasing to 2.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........43     19     19     28     25     25
Weather cov.....S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                            S CHC  S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).20     20     20     30     30     30
LAL.............1      1      1      1      2      2
Temp............71     72     84     89     88     88
RH..............93     90     63     56     57     57
20 ft wind......SE 2   SE 2   SE 6   SE 10  SE 13  SE 14
20 ft wind gust.                     14     17     18
Mix hgt (ft)....700    800    3400   4200   3300   2900
Transport wind..S 7    S 5    S 5    S 6    S 8    SE 15
Dispersion idx..3      5      21     23     27     47
LVORI...........6      6      2      2      2      1

$$
Forecaster...Cristaldi
Requested by...Self
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2112027.0/MLB
.DELDT 05/09/21
.EMAIL tony.cristaldi@noaa.gov


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