Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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000 FXUS64 KMOB 021636 AAB AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Mobile AL 1036 AM CST Tue Mar 2 2021 .NEAR TERM UPDATE...
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Strong cold air advection along with widespread rain and cloudy skies will hold high temperatures nearly steady through the remainder of the day. Therefore, adjusted high temps down about 6 degrees area-wide. Highs today will range from the 45 to 50 degrees north of Mobile to Andalusia AL line, and from 50 to 55 degrees to the south. No other wholesale changes to the other weather elements are required at this time. /22 .MARINE UPDATE...Strong northeasterly winds are being reported across all area bays and sounds this morning, with northeast winds in the 18 to 23 knot range. Updated the Marine Weather Message and the Coastal Waters Forecast to now include all bays and sounds in the Small Craft Advisory. /22
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&& .PREV DISCUSSION...
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/issued 539 AM CST Tue Mar 2 2021/ AVIATION... 12Z issuance...Shra spreading eastward this morning over the local area with highest coverage up along the US Highway 84 corridor. Some of the rains up that way are moderate to locally heavy and will likely reduce vsby to IFR, perhaps LIFR categories at times. As a low pressure system approaches and tracks east northeast over the Alabama and northwest Florida coastal waters today, cigs forecast to lower to mostly IFR categories. Reductions in vsby to IFR/MVFR categories in moderate to heavy downpours through the course of the day. Northeast winds, gusty at times, could provide a challenge for approaches and departures as well this morning. /10 SHORT TERM /Wednesday night Through Thursday night/...The west to northwest flow aloft continues through the short term period, allowing dry, cool surface high pressure that will be located just to the west of the forecast area Wednesday night to drift east across the forecast area Thursday and Thursday night. Light north to northeasterly flow is expected during the short term, with mostly clear skies and no precipitation. Wednesday night will be the coolest of the week, with lows ranging from the mid and upper 30s over our inland, northwestern counties to the lower 40s inland southeast counties and some mid to upper 40s along the coast. On Thursday highs are expected to be in the upper 60s to lower 70s across the entire area. Warming ever so slightly Thursday night with lows mostly in the lower 40s for all areas north of the coast, but again mid to upper 40s along the coast. /12 EXTENDED TERM /Friday Through Monday/...A positively tilted shortwave trough aloft located over the Southern Plains on Friday morning moves across the deep south through Saturday. An associated surface low located over over the TX/OK border begins moving southeast out over the Gulf by Friday night. The surface low then tracks east across the northern Gulf waters just south of our offshore waters towards the FL Panhandle through Saturday. Rain chances increase going into late Friday afternoon as divergence aloft and positive vorticity advection assoicated with the shortwave aloft, and surface pressure troughing extending from the low assist with lift over the region through Saturday morning. There is good model agreement that the highest rain chances will remain over the marine waters and closer to the coast which makes sense given the lack of return flow over the region otherwise. There is a possibility for a brief isolated thunderstorm early Saturday morning over the offshore marine waters, otherwise model guidance lacks instability. Rain chances quickly taper of from west to east going into Saturday evening with dry conditions expected through the rest of the extended as ridging aloft builds in behind the previously mentioned shortwave aloft. At the surface, high pressure located over the Ohio River Valley on Saturday afternoon slowly shifts east with surface ridging nosing into the region from the north-northwest. Northerly surface flow begins to turn more easterly on Sunday as our region remains on the southwest periphery of the surface ridging. Through Monday the surface high continues east out over the Atlantic bringing southeasterly flow back to region. Temperatures through the extended have a general warming trend with highs on Friday starting out in the mid and upper 60s increasing to the low to mid 70s by Monday. Low temps remain in low to upper 40s across the region through the extended. JEH/88
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&& .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CST Wednesday for GMZ633>636. Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Wednesday for GMZ630>632-650- 655-670-675.
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&& $$ This product is also available on the web at: http://weather.gov/mob

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