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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS64 KMOB 021636 AAB
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1036 AM CST Tue Mar 2 2021

.NEAR TERM UPDATE...
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Strong cold air advection along with
widespread rain and cloudy skies will hold high temperatures
nearly steady through the remainder of the day. Therefore,
adjusted high temps down about 6 degrees area-wide. Highs today
will range from the 45 to 50 degrees north of Mobile to Andalusia
AL line, and from 50 to 55 degrees to the south. No other
wholesale changes to the other weather elements are required at
this time. /22

.MARINE UPDATE...Strong northeasterly winds are being reported
across all area bays and sounds this morning, with northeast winds
in the 18 to 23 knot range. Updated the Marine Weather Message and
the Coastal Waters Forecast to now include all bays and sounds in
the Small Craft Advisory. /22
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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... 
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/issued 539 AM CST Tue Mar 2 2021/

AVIATION...
12Z issuance...Shra spreading eastward this morning over the local
area with highest coverage up along the US Highway 84 corridor.
Some of the rains up that way are moderate to locally heavy and
will likely reduce vsby to IFR, perhaps LIFR categories at times.
As a low pressure system approaches and tracks east northeast over
the Alabama and northwest Florida coastal waters today, cigs
forecast to lower to mostly IFR categories. Reductions in vsby to
IFR/MVFR categories in moderate to heavy downpours through the
course of the day. Northeast winds, gusty at times, could provide
a challenge for approaches and departures as well this morning.
/10

SHORT TERM /Wednesday night Through Thursday night/...The west to
northwest flow aloft continues through the short term period,
allowing dry, cool surface high pressure that will be located just
to the west of the forecast area Wednesday night to drift east
across the forecast area Thursday and Thursday night. Light north
to northeasterly flow is expected during the short term, with
mostly clear skies and no precipitation. Wednesday night will be
the coolest of the week, with lows ranging from the mid and upper
30s over our inland, northwestern counties to the lower 40s inland
southeast counties and some mid to upper 40s along the coast. On
Thursday highs are expected to be in the upper 60s to lower 70s
across the entire area. Warming ever so slightly Thursday night
with lows mostly in the lower 40s for all areas north of the
coast, but again mid to upper 40s along the coast. /12

EXTENDED TERM /Friday Through Monday/...A positively tilted
shortwave trough aloft located over the Southern Plains on Friday
morning moves across the deep south through Saturday. An associated
surface low located over over the TX/OK border begins moving
southeast out over the Gulf by Friday night. The surface low then
tracks east across the northern Gulf waters just south of our
offshore waters towards the FL Panhandle through Saturday. Rain
chances increase going into late Friday afternoon as divergence
aloft and positive vorticity advection assoicated with the shortwave
aloft, and surface pressure troughing extending from the low assist
with lift over the region through Saturday morning. There is good
model agreement that the highest rain chances will remain over the
marine waters and closer to the coast which makes sense given the
lack of return flow over the region otherwise. There is a
possibility for a brief isolated thunderstorm early Saturday morning
over the offshore marine waters, otherwise model guidance lacks
instability.

Rain chances quickly taper of from west to east going into Saturday
evening with dry conditions expected through the rest of the
extended as ridging aloft builds in behind the previously mentioned
shortwave aloft. At the surface, high pressure located over the
Ohio River Valley on Saturday afternoon slowly shifts east with
surface ridging nosing into the region from the north-northwest.
Northerly surface flow begins to turn more easterly on Sunday as
our region remains on the southwest periphery of the surface
ridging. Through Monday the surface high continues east out over
the Atlantic bringing southeasterly flow back to region.
Temperatures through the extended have a general warming trend
with highs on Friday starting out in the mid and upper 60s
increasing to the low to mid 70s by Monday. Low temps remain in
low to upper 40s across the region through the extended. JEH/88
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&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CST Wednesday for GMZ633>636.

     Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Wednesday for GMZ630>632-650-
     655-670-675.
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&&

$$

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