


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --305 FXUS64 KMOB 302341 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 641 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 ...New Aviation... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 204 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Today through Wednesday night... An unsettled pattern continues on Tuesday as the area remains in a northerly upper level flow pattern between a ridge to our west and upper low east of the Florida peninsula. This will lead to another round of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday, starting near the coast in the morning before gradually spreading inland. High rain chances continue on Wednesday as a trough moves across the Great Lakes region and sends a weak front southward into the area. The boundary will provide a focus for the development of showers and thunderstorms through the day on Wednesday. Coverage will remain diurnally driven with the highest coverage during the afternoon and early evening hours. Severe storms are not expected, however minor flooding is possible as much of the area is saturated. The clouds and rain will keep temps below normal. /13 Thursday through Sunday... The front pushes off into the marine area Wednesday night with a drier airmass moving in for Thursday. Precipitable water values are forecast to drop below 1.5 inches Thursday into Friday. Meanwhile, the upper ridge to our west will build eastward. The combination of the drier air and building ridge will result in hotter and drier conditions for the start of the holiday weekend. Rain chances return to the area by early next week as moisture levels increase. Much hotter conditions expected through Saturday with highs in the low to mid 90s. At this point, heat indices are expected to remain below Heat Advisory criteria thanks to afternoon dew points mixing down into the upper 60s to low 70s. Lows throughout the period will be generally in the low 70s inland and the mid to upper 70s along the immediate coast. /13 && .AVIATION...-- Changed Discussion --(00Z TAFS) Issued at 635 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Areas of rain with a few embedded thunderstorms are bringing local drops in general VFR conditions to the forecast area at 23z. Am expecting this rain to decrease in coverage through the evening, then redevelop towards sunrise over the southern third of the forecast area and northern Gulf. Conditions will be bouncing between mid level MVFR and VFR in rain and embedded thunderstorms during the day Tuesday. Fog development is possible tonight, especially in areas that received greater rainfall today. The key will be if breaks in the clouds will be enough to allow for radiational cooling overnight. The chance is low, but still possible. Southwest to westerly winds around 5 knots are expected overnight, becoming south to southwesterly around 10 knots during the day Tuesday. /16-- End Changed Discussion --&& .MARINE... Issued at 204 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. /13 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob