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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS63 KMQT 042234
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
534 PM EST Thu Mar 4 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 241 PM EST THU MAR 4 2021

Current RAP analysis and GOES WV imagery show an upper level low
over Quebec today and will likely hang around through Friday that
will continue to bring weak northerly flow over the Upper Peninsula,
resulting in some flurries or very light snow showers along the Lake
Superior shoreline. This has gradually diminish throughout the
afternoon with dry air aloft moving over the area. Soundings show an
inversion around 850-900mb that will help dry things out which has
occurred earlier than anticipated and will have winds back a bit
more to the northwest and this will bring slight chances of light
snow showers east of Munising late tonight or early Friday morning.
Temps at 850mb on Friday morning will be between -10C to -12C which
will support light snow showers over those areas through the morning
hours. Not expecting much in terms of accumulations with generally
around a half-inch or less. Elsewhere, it will continue to remain
dry with clouds over the north and east and partly to mostly sunny
skies across the south and west.

Temperature wise, it will be pretty similar to what we saw for highs
yesterday with mainly 20s across the north and east with 30s over
the south and west along the WI border where there will be more
sunshine. Seeing some breaks in clouds earlier than anticipated and
that has allowed temps to rise quickly over the west and as a
result, have raised highs for today. Lows tonight could get chilly
again over the interior west similar to last night where some spots
fell below zero with mainly clear skies at Wakefield and Watersmeet.
Would not be surprised if this were to occur again tonight. Highs
Friday will be a little warmer than today with widespread 30s and
maybe a few low 40s over the far south.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 515 PM EST THU MAR 4 2021

Overall, quiet weather will prevail across Upper MI thru early next
week. This quiet period will be the result of sharp ridging/strong
positive height anomalies developing from the High Plains to Hudson
Bay thru Sat. The ridge will then shift across the western Great
Lakes on Sun, followed by a weak shortwave trough passage on Mon and
then rebuilding of a ridge into the Great Lakes for Tue. Heading
into the middle of next week and on into the mid Mar period, there
are indications for an active pattern to develop, featuring at least
a couple of waves dropping into the western U.S. and then ejecting
ne across the Plains. The first wave will arrive midweek with
majority of the pcpn for Upper MI probably being rain. A second wave
may affect the Great Lakes region late in the week. Temps next week
will trend overall above normal in this pattern, but will be
dependent on the track of shortwaves/associated low pres systems
lifting across the central U.S. If passing to the w of Upper MI,
some warm days will be in the offing. With the first wave likely
passing w of Upper MI, it looks like some 50s will be observed Mon
and especially Tue, at least over western Upper MI. Wed could be
warm as well, depending on timing of cold fropa associated with the
first wave.

Beginning Fri night into Sat, it looks like another shortwave will
drop sse, passing across far eastern Lake Superior. Several of the
models indicate CAA may drop 850mb temps back toward -13C across
eastern Lake Superior which could result in around round of flurries
off the lake into the eastern fcst area late Fri night/Sat morning.
Under near calm wind and mostly clear skies over the w, temps Fri
night will fall back into the single digits above 0F in the
interior. Expect mainly teens elsewhere. Highs Sat should be similar
to Fri ranging from around 30F north central and east to near 40F
along the Wisconsin-Michigan stateline.

Sfc high pres ridge will finally shift e across the area Sat night.
Central and especially the eastern fcst area should be under the
ridge axis and near calm wind long enough for temps to fall back
into the single digits above 0F in the interior. A few spots could
slip blo 0F.

As shortwave trough moves out over the Canadian Prairies and
northern Plains on Sun, the mid-level ridge will shift across the
western Great Lakes. As the associated sfc high pres ridge pushes e
of the area, southerly winds be the rule. High temps should push
well into the 40s, maybe above 50F, over portions of western Upper
MI. Expect 30s for much of the east half.

The northern Plains shortwave trough will then move across the area
late Sun night/Mon morning. Given limited moisture and weak forcing
could maybe see some light shra across the north and east with this
feature. Will maintain slight chc pops from the Keweenaw into the
eastern fcst area. Broader mid-level ridging will then develop over
the eastern U.S. into Tue as mid-level troughing expands across the
western U.S. Lead shortwave with this western trough will begin to
eject out across the Plains, but should remain far enough to the w
for mostly dry weather to linger into Tue. Temps Mon and especially
Tue, when best WAA is occurring ahead of the incoming Plains system,
will likely rise into the 50s F over portions of western Upper MI.
However, Mon could be a surprise warm day with temps well into the
50s across portions of the w half of the fcst area as skies clear
after shortwave passage in the morning. Temps will be coolest closer
to Lake MI both days.

The shortwave ejecting out of the western CONUS trough will support
a low pres wave which model consensus indicates will likely pass
just w of the fcst area as it lifts ne on Wed. GFS is one of the few
models showing the low passing over the central U.P. Pcpn associated
with this system will spread into the fcst area in the Tue night/Wed
time frame. At this point, it appears this will be mainly a rain
event. Will turn cooler in the wake of the system on Thu with some
lingering -shsn in the morning.
&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 534 PM EST THU MAR 4 2021

VFR conditions will continue through the period at IWD and CMX. SAW
could see some MVFR conditions Fri morning...otherwise it will be
VFR there.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 241 PM EST THU MAR 4 2021

Wind will generally remain 20 knots through early Friday as a
surface high pressure continues to dominate the Great Lakes region.
Winds will increase to around 20 knots over the east half of the
lake by Friday afternoon and evening with gusts to 30 knots and
can`t rule out a few gale force gusts as well. Winds will slowly
diminish through the day Saturday, falling below 20 knots by
Saturday afternoon. Winds will shift to more of a southerly flow by
Sunday as the ridge shifts east a little and could have another
quick shot of winds of 20 to 30 knots Sunday afternoon and evening
before falling under 20 knots Monday.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...Voss
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JH