Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000 FXUS63 KMQT 042234 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 534 PM EST Thu Mar 4 2021 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 241 PM EST THU MAR 4 2021 Current RAP analysis and GOES WV imagery show an upper level low over Quebec today and will likely hang around through Friday that will continue to bring weak northerly flow over the Upper Peninsula, resulting in some flurries or very light snow showers along the Lake Superior shoreline. This has gradually diminish throughout the afternoon with dry air aloft moving over the area. Soundings show an inversion around 850-900mb that will help dry things out which has occurred earlier than anticipated and will have winds back a bit more to the northwest and this will bring slight chances of light snow showers east of Munising late tonight or early Friday morning. Temps at 850mb on Friday morning will be between -10C to -12C which will support light snow showers over those areas through the morning hours. Not expecting much in terms of accumulations with generally around a half-inch or less. Elsewhere, it will continue to remain dry with clouds over the north and east and partly to mostly sunny skies across the south and west. Temperature wise, it will be pretty similar to what we saw for highs yesterday with mainly 20s across the north and east with 30s over the south and west along the WI border where there will be more sunshine. Seeing some breaks in clouds earlier than anticipated and that has allowed temps to rise quickly over the west and as a result, have raised highs for today. Lows tonight could get chilly again over the interior west similar to last night where some spots fell below zero with mainly clear skies at Wakefield and Watersmeet. Would not be surprised if this were to occur again tonight. Highs Friday will be a little warmer than today with widespread 30s and maybe a few low 40s over the far south. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 515 PM EST THU MAR 4 2021 Overall, quiet weather will prevail across Upper MI thru early next week. This quiet period will be the result of sharp ridging/strong positive height anomalies developing from the High Plains to Hudson Bay thru Sat. The ridge will then shift across the western Great Lakes on Sun, followed by a weak shortwave trough passage on Mon and then rebuilding of a ridge into the Great Lakes for Tue. Heading into the middle of next week and on into the mid Mar period, there are indications for an active pattern to develop, featuring at least a couple of waves dropping into the western U.S. and then ejecting ne across the Plains. The first wave will arrive midweek with majority of the pcpn for Upper MI probably being rain. A second wave may affect the Great Lakes region late in the week. Temps next week will trend overall above normal in this pattern, but will be dependent on the track of shortwaves/associated low pres systems lifting across the central U.S. If passing to the w of Upper MI, some warm days will be in the offing. With the first wave likely passing w of Upper MI, it looks like some 50s will be observed Mon and especially Tue, at least over western Upper MI. Wed could be warm as well, depending on timing of cold fropa associated with the first wave. Beginning Fri night into Sat, it looks like another shortwave will drop sse, passing across far eastern Lake Superior. Several of the models indicate CAA may drop 850mb temps back toward -13C across eastern Lake Superior which could result in around round of flurries off the lake into the eastern fcst area late Fri night/Sat morning. Under near calm wind and mostly clear skies over the w, temps Fri night will fall back into the single digits above 0F in the interior. Expect mainly teens elsewhere. Highs Sat should be similar to Fri ranging from around 30F north central and east to near 40F along the Wisconsin-Michigan stateline. Sfc high pres ridge will finally shift e across the area Sat night. Central and especially the eastern fcst area should be under the ridge axis and near calm wind long enough for temps to fall back into the single digits above 0F in the interior. A few spots could slip blo 0F. As shortwave trough moves out over the Canadian Prairies and northern Plains on Sun, the mid-level ridge will shift across the western Great Lakes. As the associated sfc high pres ridge pushes e of the area, southerly winds be the rule. High temps should push well into the 40s, maybe above 50F, over portions of western Upper MI. Expect 30s for much of the east half. The northern Plains shortwave trough will then move across the area late Sun night/Mon morning. Given limited moisture and weak forcing could maybe see some light shra across the north and east with this feature. Will maintain slight chc pops from the Keweenaw into the eastern fcst area. Broader mid-level ridging will then develop over the eastern U.S. into Tue as mid-level troughing expands across the western U.S. Lead shortwave with this western trough will begin to eject out across the Plains, but should remain far enough to the w for mostly dry weather to linger into Tue. Temps Mon and especially Tue, when best WAA is occurring ahead of the incoming Plains system, will likely rise into the 50s F over portions of western Upper MI. However, Mon could be a surprise warm day with temps well into the 50s across portions of the w half of the fcst area as skies clear after shortwave passage in the morning. Temps will be coolest closer to Lake MI both days. The shortwave ejecting out of the western CONUS trough will support a low pres wave which model consensus indicates will likely pass just w of the fcst area as it lifts ne on Wed. GFS is one of the few models showing the low passing over the central U.P. Pcpn associated with this system will spread into the fcst area in the Tue night/Wed time frame. At this point, it appears this will be mainly a rain event. Will turn cooler in the wake of the system on Thu with some lingering -shsn in the morning. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 534 PM EST THU MAR 4 2021 VFR conditions will continue through the period at IWD and CMX. SAW could see some MVFR conditions Fri morning...otherwise it will be VFR there.
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&& .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 241 PM EST THU MAR 4 2021 Wind will generally remain 20 knots through early Friday as a surface high pressure continues to dominate the Great Lakes region. Winds will increase to around 20 knots over the east half of the lake by Friday afternoon and evening with gusts to 30 knots and can`t rule out a few gale force gusts as well. Winds will slowly diminish through the day Saturday, falling below 20 knots by Saturday afternoon. Winds will shift to more of a southerly flow by Sunday as the ridge shifts east a little and could have another quick shot of winds of 20 to 30 knots Sunday afternoon and evening before falling under 20 knots Monday. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JH LONG TERM...Voss AVIATION...07 MARINE...JH

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